Working Papers
2007
July 1, 2007
Money for Nothing and Checks for Free: Recent Developments in U.S. Subprime Mortgage Markets
Description: After a number of warning signs, the U.S. "subprime mortgage crisis" became a headline issue in February 2007. Notwithstanding the bankruptcy of numerous mortgage companies, historically high delinquencies and foreclosures, and a significant tightening in subprime lending standards, the impact thus far on core U.S. financial institutions has been limited. This paper reviews the history and structure of the subprime market. The results suggest that new origination and funding technology appear to have made the financial system more stable at the expense of undermining the effectiveness of consumer protection regulation. Potential solutions to the management of this trade-off are then explored.
July 1, 2007
Where Have the Monetary Surprises Gone? The Effects of FOMC Statements
Description: This paper examines the impact of central bank communication on market expectations of monetary policy and long-term interest rates by comparing Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) action dates when a policy statement was made to dates before statements were issued. Increased communication has been associated with a reduction in the magnitude of short-term monetary surprises; a greater flow of information about the long-term path of policy that is distinct from the short-term surprise; and a larger role for these long-term surprises in the determination of long-term interest rates.
July 1, 2007
Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa
Description: Since the turn of the century, aid flows to Africa have increased on average and become more volatile. As a result, policymakers, particularly in post-stabilization countries where inflation has only recently been brought under control, have been increasingly preoccupied with how best to deploy the available instruments of monetary policy without yielding on hard-won inflation gains. We use a stochastic simulation model, in which private sector currency substitution effects play a central role, to examine the properties of alternative monetary and fiscal policy strategies in the face of volatile aid flows. We show that simple monetary rules, specifically an (unsterilized) exchange rate crawl and a 'reserve buffer plus float'-under which the authorities set a time-varying reserve target corresponding to the unspent portion of aid financing and allow the exchange rate to float freely once this reserve target is satisfied-have attractive properties relative to a range of alternative strategies including those involving heavy reliance on bond sterilization or a commitment to a 'pure' exchange rate float.
July 1, 2007
Fiscal Adjustments: Determinants and Macroeconomic Consequences
Description: The paper analyzes the determinants of success of recent fiscal consolidations in the OECD countries as well as the short-run and long-run effects of fiscal adjustments on economic activity by looking at fourteen case studies, panel data for OECD countries, and the results of simulations using a non-Ricardian multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model. The study finds that while fiscal consolidations tend to have short-run contractionary effects, they can be expansionary in the long run, provided that they do not rely excessively on cuts in productive government expenditure. They can also create positive spillover effects for the rest of the world.
July 1, 2007
The Case for a European Banking Charter
Description: Most financial institutions in the European Union (EU) are still based in one country, but a number of large financial institutions (LCFI) have systemic cross-border exposures. The paper explains how, despite much progress, nationally-segmented supervisory frameworks and national accountability for financial stability hinder optimization across borders of banks' operations and efficient and effective LCFI supervision. A full-fledged EU-level prudential regime that operates along-side national regimes--a European Banking Charter (EBC)--could harness market forces to establish a level playing field for financial sector competition, while plugging some significant gaps in Europe's financial stability framework without concentrating excessive powers.
July 1, 2007
Rapid Growth in the CIS: Panel Regression Approach
Description: This paper analytically explores and empirically tests a number of hypotheses to explain the rapid growth in transition economies. The paper finds that growth in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has been higher because of the recovery of lost output, progress in macroeconomic stabilization and market reforms, and favorable external conditions. Some of these factors are unlikely to continue for a very long time. The challenge is to improve the investment climate in the non-primary sectors, which will require broadening the scope of macroeconomic reform into a second generation of reforms encompassing structural and institutional areas.
July 1, 2007
Globalization and Income Inequality: A European Perspective
Description: There is growing concern in Europe over the impact of globalization on high and evenly shared living standards. These concerns have often surfaced in response to falling labor income shares in aggregate national income data. However, these data may tell little about the underlying distribution of incomes based on household disposable incomes. While summary measures of income distributions also suggest that inequality has increased in most industrialized countries, this development was very uneven and much less pronounced in euro-area countries, suggesting that broad phenomena such as trade liberalization and technological change may not be major drivers of inequality.
July 1, 2007
Growth and Inflation Dispersions in EMU: Reasons, the Role of Adjustment Channels, and Policy Implications
Description: This paper's analysis of growth and inflation dispersions in the euro area reveals several findings. First, these dispersions have declined appreciably since EMU; remaining dispersions are small but persistent, relating mainly to country-specific shocks, not differences in the transmission of common shocks. Second, the different behavior of interest rates just before and after the introduction of the euro has contributed significantly to growth dispersions. However, this has been a one-off shock whose effects, particularly on construction, should be declining over time. Third, financial sector integration could do much more to insure countries against shocks and increase consumption smoothing.
July 1, 2007
Rapid Growth in Transition Economies: Growth-Accounting Approach
Description: This paper uses the growth-accounting approach to determine the sources of growth in transition economies. The central conclusion is that the estimated total factor productivity (TFP) growth for the former Soviet Union republics were significantly higher than other fast growing economies. A key question for prospective growth is whether the TFP gains achieved thus far have already eliminated most of the inefficiencies of central planning-and will therefore soon fade away. Underutilized labor combined with the recent trend of faster capital accumulation may play a more important role in the medium-term growth.
July 1, 2007
A Note on Public Debt, Tax-Exempt Bonds, and Ponzi Games
Description: By issuing tax-exempt bonds, the government can incur debt and never pay back any principal or interest, even if the economy without public debt evolves on a dynamically efficient growth path. The welfare effects of such a Ponzi type borrowing scheme are mixed. The current young will unambiguously benefit.Depending on preferences and the aggregate technology, also a finite number of subsequent generations may benefit. The welfare of all generations thereafter, however, will be lower than in the economy without public debt.