Working Papers
2007
July 1, 2007
What Do We Know About Namibia’s Competitiveness?
Description: This paper evaluates Namibia's competitiveness using several traditional indicators; it concludes that, while the real effective exchange rate (REER) is in equilibrium at present?suggesting no imminent need for concern?the country may wish to improve its competitiveness by increasing educational attainment, reducing the skills mismatch, and diversifying its exports. Moreover, although Namibia scores relatively well on survey-based major indicators of structural competitiveness, the business environment can be made more conducive to private sector activity.
July 1, 2007
Financing of Global Imbalances
Description: This paper analyzes the determinants of bond flows, now the dominant source of capital inflows, into the United States, as a means of establishing conditions affecting the financing of the U.S. current account deficit. To test the hypothesis that capital flows have become more responsive to changes in relative interest rates and other conditions across borders, a panel data set, showing bond flows from 12 separate jurisdictions into the United States, is constructed for the period 1994-2006 using adjusted U.S. Treasury International Capital Flow (TIC) data. Panel vector autoregression and instrumental variables approaches are used to estimate the impact of changes in interest rate differentials and other fundamentals on capital flows into the U.S. The paper finds evidence for an impact from interest rate differentials to bond inflows that has increased over time. Under one plausible set of theoretical assumptions, the increased sensitivity can be interpreted as resulting from a reduction in home bias on the part of non-US investors.
July 1, 2007
Introducing Islamic Banks into Conventional Banking Systems
Description: Over the last decade, Islamic banking has experienced global growth rates of 10-15 percent per annum, and has been moving into an increasing number of conventional financial systems at such a rapid pace that Islamic financial institutions are present today in over 51 countries. Despite this consistent growth, many supervisory authorities and finance practitioners remain unfamiliar with the process by which Islamic banks are introduced into a conventional system. This paper attempts to shed some light in this area by describing the main phases in the process, and by flagging some of the main challenges that countries will face as Islamic banking develops alongside conventional institutions.
July 1, 2007
VAT, Tariffs, and Withholding: Border Taxes and Informality in Developing Countries
Description: This paper explores the implications of a distinctive feature of the value added tax (VAT) that is stressed by practitioners but essentially ignored by theorists: that it functions, in part, as a tax on the purchases of informal operators from formal sector businesses and, not least, on their imports. It stresses too the potential importance of the creditable withholding taxes that are levied by many developing countries-which have also been ignored. If both of these instruments are optimally deployed, it is shown, then the usual prescription that a small economy should not deploy tariffs remains valid even in the presence of an informal sector; and indeed a simple strategy is established-generalizing the standard prescription developed in models without informality-for deploying these instruments so as to preserve government revenue and increase welfare in the face of efficiency-improving tariff cuts. Conditions are established under which a VAT alone is fully optimal, precisely because it is in part a tax on informal sector production. But they are restrictive: more generally, an efficient tax structure requires deploying both a VAT and withholding taxes.
July 1, 2007
The Role of Nonseparable Utility and Nontradeables in International Business Cycles and Portfolio Choice
Description: This paper analyzes the role of nonseparable utility and nontradables in business cycles and portfolio choice. I find that nonseparability in utility can change the portfolio choice significantly. Unlike previous results in literature, the optimal portfolio of the traded-good sector equities is no longer a well diversified portfolio and becomes sensitive to parameter values. As a result, the model often generates extreme home bias or anti-home bias portfolios implying that some frictions in asset markets, which prevent agents from holding these extreme portfolios, can explain the lack of international risk sharing.
July 1, 2007
Firm Heterogeneity and Weak Intellectual Property Rights
Description: In weak intellectual property rights (IPR) environments, the imitation of proprietary technology by domestic firms has become a deterrent for foreign investment. Different multinationals may view this deterrent differently. This paper develops a model where firms with more technology are less likely to invest in weak IPR environments. If imitation is costly, the model predicts that multinationals with the lowest level and highest level of technology will invest in weak IPR environments, and multinationals with a moderate level of technology will invest only in strong IPR environments. Empirical analysis with firm level data is consistent with this non-monotonicity result.
July 1, 2007
What Drives Stock Market Development in the Middle East and Central Asia—Institutions, Remittances, or Natural Resources?
Description: In this paper, we assess the macroeconomic determinants of stock market capitalization in a panel of 17 countries in the Middle East and Central Asia, including both hydrocarbon-rich countries and economies without sizeable natural resource wealth. In addition to traditional variables, we include an institutional variable and remittances among the regressors. We find that (i) both institutions and remittances have a positive and significant impact on market capitalization; and (ii) both regressors matter, especially in countries without significant hydrocarbon sectors; whereas (iii) in resource-rich countries, stock market capitalization is mainly driven by the oil price.
July 1, 2007
Welfare Gains from Financial Liberalization
Description: Financial liberalization has been a controversial issue as there is little empirical evidence for its positive effects on economic growth. However, we find sizable welfare gains, 1 to 28 percent of permanent consumption though, consistent with the literature, the gain in the economic growth is ambiguous, -0.2 to 0.7 percent. We apply a canonical growth model with endogenous financial deepening to Thailand, 1976-96. As effective bank transaction costs decline, more people take advantage of financial services. We estimate the gains by comparing model simulations under the historical episode of financial liberalization to those under a hypothetical continuation of financial repression.
July 1, 2007
Capital Flows, Financial Integration, and International Reserve Holdings: The Recent Experience of Emerging Markets and Advanced Economies
Description: This paper examines the interaction between capital flows and international reserve holdings in the context of increasing financial integration. For emerging markets the sensitivity of reserves to net capital flows was negative in the 1980s, but became positive after the Asian crisis when these countries used net capital flows to build up reserves. For advanced countries, net capital flows had a negative effect on reserves, especially in recent years. Using measures of financial globalization, we also provide evidence that the sensitivity of reserves to net capital flows increased with globalization for emerging markets while it decreased for advanced countries.
July 1, 2007
IPO Behavior in GCC Countries: Goody-Two Shoes or Bad-to-the-Bone?
Description: This paper documents the phenomenon of underpricing initial public offerings (IPOs) for 47 firms that went public between 2001 and 2006 in the equity markets of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The average initial abnormal returns of 290 percent exceed those found in the existing literature for both developed and emerging markets IPOs. Although the IPOs' returns over the one-year horizon beat the market index benchmark, they present negative abnormal returns once initial returns are excluded, which is consistent with findings in other industrial and emerging markets. The empirical models reject the hypothesis that the IPOs' performance is driven by the common independent variables employed in the literature. On the contrary, in the case of the GCC, country- and industry-specific characteristics, in addition to the timing of the offers, play key roles in explaining the abnormal returns of IPOs. This paper's empirical findings support the hypothesis that investors initially tend to be over-optimistic about the performance of IPOs, but grow more pessimistic over time.