Working Papers
2007
August 1, 2007
What Drives China’s Growing Role in Africa?
Description: What role does China play in Africa's development? What drives China's increasing economic involvement in the continent? This paper attempts to provide a quantified assessment of China's multifaceted influence as market, donor, financer and investor, and contractor and builder. Though in the past official development aid predominated, the paper argues that government policies, markets for each other's exports, Africa's demand for infrastructure, and differences in China's approach to financing have together moved commercial activities-trade and investment-to the center of China-Africa economic relations. While China's public sector, state financial institutions in particular, has been instrumental in the process, the influence of its private sector is increasing. Implications for the future of China-Africa economic relations are briefly noted.
August 1, 2007
Why Has Unemployment in Algeria Been Higher than in MENA and Transition Countries?
Description: This paper analyzes the determinants of labor market performance in Algeria. When the model is estimated with panel data on a sample of MENA and transition countries for 1995- 2005, the results suggest that lower growth in labor productivity in Algeria is associated with higher unemployment than the sample average, though recent positive terms of trade shocks have helped Algeria reduce the differential. Labor market rigidities and labor taxation do not seem to explain why unemployment is higher in Algeria than in other countries. The results are robust to various panel econometric methods and instrumental variable estimates.
August 1, 2007
U.K. Inflation and Relative Prices over the Last Decade: How Important was Globalization?
Description: In this paper, the IMF's new Global Economy Model (GEM) is used to estimate the relative importance of a number of factors argued to explain the differences in the trends in core inflation and relative prices in the United Kingdom, the Euro Area and the United States. The simulation results indicate that while the direct effect of globalization has had a larger effect in the United Kingdom than in either the United States or the Euro Area, it explains only a portion of the developments and U.K. specific factors played an important role.
August 1, 2007
Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility in a Small Macro Model of Israel
Description: This paper extends a small linear model of the Israeli economy to allow for nonlinearities in the inflation-output process that arise from convexity in the Phillips curve and endogenous monetary policy credibility. We find that the dynamic responses to shocks in the extended model more closely resemble features in the data from the period 2001?03. In particular, the extended model does a much better job in accounting for the deterioration in monetary policy credibility and the output costs of regaining monetary policy credibility once it has been lost.
August 1, 2007
Financial Deepening in Sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical Evidence on the Role of Creditor Rights Protection and Information Sharing
Description: This paper investigates the role of creditor rights and information sharing in explaining why some financial markets in sub-Saharan Africa have remained shallow. The paper finds that while financial liberalization and macroeconomic stability promote financial deepening, they are not enough. For countries with similar financial liberalization efforts, those with stronger legal institutions and information sharing have deeper financial development. This result is consistent with a growing body of research for other regions of the world. The main policy implications are that (1) creditor rights legislation should be reinforced, the law reformed, and efficient property registries established; and (2) governments should sponsor credit bureaus where private bureaus might not be commercially viable.
August 1, 2007
A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits
Description: This paper develops a 2-country New Keynesian overlapping generations model suitable for the joint evaluation of monetary and fiscal policies. We show that a permanent increase in U.S. government deficits raises the world real interest rate and significantly increases U.S. current account deficits, especially in the medium- to long-run. A simultaneous increase in non-U.S. savings lowers the world real interest rate and further increases U.S. current account deficits. We show that conventional infinite horizon models are ill-equipped to deal with issues that involve permanent changes in public or private sector savings rates.
August 1, 2007
DSGE Modeling at the Fund: Applications and Further Developments
Description: Researchers in policymaking institutions have expended significant effort to develop a new generation of macro models with more rigorous microfoundations. This paper provides a summary of the applications of two of these models. The Global Economy Model is a quarterly model that features a large assortment of nominal and real rigidities, which are necessary to create plausible short-run dynamics. However, because this model is based on a representative-agent paradigm, its Ricardian features make it unsuitable to study many fiscal policy issues. The Global Fiscal Model, which is an annual model that uses an overlappinggenerations structure, has been designed to analyze the longer-term consequences of alternative fiscal policies.
August 1, 2007
Economic Growth in Croatia: Potential and Constraints
Description: This paper examines the factors and constraints that affect recent and potential growth in Croatia, as well as policies that can influence it. On current productivity trends, it estimates Croatia's potential growth rate at 4-4½ percent, a result reasonably robust to different methodologies. To sustain growth at a higher rate in line with the authorities' aspirations, the analysis highlights the critical need to improve the business environment through further measures to reduce the administrative burden, legal uncertainties, and corruption. It also emphasizes the importance of attracting more greenfield foreign direct investment, and reforms to reduce the role of the state in the economy through fiscal consolidation and faster privatization.
August 1, 2007
A Simple DGE Model for Inflation Targeting
Description: The paper presents a DGE model designed as a core projection tool to support monetary policy in inflation-targeting (IT) emerging market economies. The paper uses a particularly simple and flexible general equilibrium model structure that can be amended to account for various phenomena that often complicate policy analysis in emerging markets, such as persistent trends in relative prices. The model's calibration is intuitive and can draw on the vast experience many countries have with calibrating small 'gap' models of monetary policy transmission. Moreover, the definition of the model's steady state in terms of nominal expenditure ratios, rather than levels of real variables, allows for the easy use of the model in a regular forecast production cycle in an IT central bank. The paper tests the model's properties on recent Turkish data, demonstrating that the main stylized features relevant for monetary policy making are well captured by the model.
August 1, 2007
New Landscape, New Challenges: Structural Change and Regulation in the U.S. Financial Sector
Description: Given the rapid evolution of the U.S. financial sector and attendant regulatory challenges, this paper explores ways to fine-tune U.S. oversight arrangements. It surveys the financial landscape, separating a highly regulated, multi-business, and (in terms of relative asset holdings) shrinking “core” from a lightly regulated, more specialized, and rapidly expanding “periphery” explains the U.S. regulatory philosophy and structure, with its focus on core institutions and its jurisdictional complexity; highlights certain new challenges, without presuming to have all the solutions; draws out some broad policy implications, from the “30,000 foot level” and concludes by tabling and discussing one, specific, reform idea.