Working Papers
2008
May 1, 2008
Government Spending on Health Care and Education in Croatia: Efficiency and Reform Options
Description: This paper assesses the relative efficiency of government spending on health care and education in Croatia by using the so-called Data Envelopment Analysis. The analysis finds evidence of significant inefficiencies in Croatia's spending on health care and education, related to inadequate cost recovery, weaknesses in the financing mechanisms and institutional arrangements, weak competition in the provision of these services, and weaknesses in targeting public subsidies on health care and education. These inefficiencies suggest that government spending on health and education could be reduced without undue sacrifices in the quality of these services. The paper identifies ways to do that.
May 1, 2008
Challenges to Monetary Policy from Financial Globalization: The Case of India
Description: The question of how India should adapt monetary policy to ongoing financial globalization has gained prominence with the recent surge in capital inflows. This paper documents the degree to which India has become financially globalized, both in absolute terms and relative to emerging and developed countries. We find that despite a relatively low degree of openness, India's domestic monetary conditions are highly influenced by global factors. We then review the experiences of countries that have adapted to financial globalization, drawing lessons for India. While we find no strong relationship between the degree of stability in monetary conditions and the broad monetary policy regime, our findings suggest that improvements in monetary operations and communication?sometimes prompted by a shift to an IT regime?have helped stabilize broader monetary conditions. In addition, the experience of countries which used non-standard instruments suggests that room to regulate capital flows effectively through capital controls diminishes as financial integration increases.
May 1, 2008
Tax Administration Reform and Fiscal Adjustment: The Case of Indonesia (2001-07)
Description: Tax administration reforms can play an important role in fiscal adjustment. This role is examined by reviewing Indonesia's tax reform cum fiscal adjustment experience since 2001. The paper describes Indonesia's fiscal adjustment strategy, its tax administration reforms, and assesses the impact of these reforms on fiscal adjustment. Evidence suggests tax administration improvements had a strong positive impact on the tax yield and a positive effect on the investment climate. Lessons are presented for designing tax administration reforms within the context of a fiscal adjustment program and reform priorities are identified for Indonesia's ongoing efforts to strengthen tax administration.
May 1, 2008
Tax and Pension Reform in the Czech Republic—Implications for Growth and Debt Sustainability
Description: The Czech Republic has embarked on an ambitious tax reform and expenditure package to bring the deficit sustainably below 3 percent, and intends to reduce the deficit to 1 percent of GDP by 2012. To address the long-term fiscal challenge due to population aging, pension reform proposals are also being considered. In this paper we assess the macroeconomic effects of these measures using the Global Fiscal Model. The tax reform package will achieve a more efficient tax system. If implemented successfully with the intended expenditure savings measures, debt is projected to improve markedly while output would expand. Fiscal sustainability will not be restored, however, even if further measures to bring the deficit to 1 percent of GDP by 2012. Instead, raising the retirement age and prefunding future aging costs would be needed to keep debt below 60 percent of GDP through 2050.
May 1, 2008
Trends in Italy’s Nonprice Competitiveness
Description: Italy's medium-term economic performance has raised "standard" competitiveness concerns as unit labor costs surged, and real export growth fell. But the recent economic upturn, low current account deficit, and robust nominal exports argue for less pessimism. An empirical analysis confirms the standard concerns, but also suggests that "residual" factors, which partly reflect nonprice economic restructuring, have supported Italy's real exports after 2005 (as in Germany but less so in France or Spain). An investigation of selected structural trends over the past decade offers some substantiation to Italy's "restructuring story," including quality upgrading, geographical trade diversification, and outsourcing. But sluggish services, low FDI, and modest "technological" upgrading indicate limits to Italy's restructuring.
May 1, 2008
Government Size and Output Volatility: Should We Forsake Automatic Stabilization?
Description: The paper takes stock of the debate on the positive link between output volatility and the size of government-which reflects automatic stabilizers. After a survey of the literature, we show that the contribution of automatic stabilizers to output stability may have disappeared since the 1990s. However, econometric analysis suggests that the breakdown in the government size-volatility relationship largely reflects temporary developments (better monetary management and financial intermediation). Once these factors are taken into account, the stabilizing role of government size remains important although little extra stability can be gained by expanding public expenditure beyond 40 percent of GDP.
May 1, 2008
The Choice of Monetary and Exchange Rate Arrangements for a Small, Open, Low-Income Economy: The Case of São Tomé and Príncipe
Description: This paper assesses São Tomé and Príncipe's monetary and exchange rate arrangements in light of the country's monetary history and the relevant experience of comparable countries in Africa. The study highlights several structural characteristics of São Tomé and Príncipe including its very small size, high degree of openness, extensive use of foreign currencies, and inflexible product and factor markets in the consideration of an appropriate monetary and exchange regime. Firmly anchored currency arrangements, defined in this paper to include memberships in monetary unions or hard pegs, are found to be preferable to the status quo of a managed float. The paper applies statistical methods and takes into account other factors to identify the appropriate anchor currency. It stresses that fiscal discipline and prudent debt management are the main prerequisites for a firmly anchored currency arrangement.
May 1, 2008
Impact of Government Expenditure on Growth: The Case of Azerbaijan
Description: This paper evaluates a fiscal scenario based on the assumption of a rapid scaling-up of expenditure to be followed by a rapid scaling-down in the context of Azerbaijan's current temporary oil production boom. To this end, it relies on a review of historical precedents and a neoclassical growth model. Based on both strands of analysis, the paper suggests that the evaluated fiscal scenario poses significant risks to growth sustainability.
May 1, 2008
Do IMF Programs Improve Economic Governance?
Description: This paper examines the effects of IMF financial assistance on economic governance in developing countries, based on panel data analyses of perceived governance indicators. It uses a two-stage approach to address possible endogeneity issues. The results show that successful implementation of IMF programs is associated with improvements in the quality of economic governance. Specifically, the paper finds statistically robust results that IMF concessional programs through the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility tend to enhance the rule of law and strengthen control of corruption. Through this exercise, however, no statistically significant effect is observed for assistances under the General Resource Account.
April 1, 2008
Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates for Armenia and Georgia
Description: The significant real exchange rate appreciation in Armenia and Georgia since 2003, coupled with persistent current account deficits, raises the question of whether real exchange rates have become overvalued. This paper seeks to identify possible exchange rate misalignment by applying the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate approach, complemented by an analysis of the traditional competitiveness indicators. The results indicate an undervaluation of the Armenian dram and no significant misalignment of the Georgian lari in 2006.