Working Papers
2008
July 1, 2008
Innovation in Banking and Excessive Loan Growth
Description: The volume of credit extended by a bank can be an informative signal of its abilities in loan selection and management. It is shown that, under asymmetric information, banks may therefore rationally lend more than they would otherwise in order to demonstrate their quality, thus negatively affecting financial system soundness. Small shifts in technology and uncertainty associated with new technology may lead to large jumps in equilibrium outcomes. Prudential measures and supervision are therefore warranted.
July 1, 2008
Bank Recycling of Petro Dollars to Emerging Market Economies During the Current Oil Price Boom
Description: High oil prices have once again led to large external surpluses of oil exporting countries, similar to the 1970s and 1980s. This paper analyzes the extent to which (i) oil exporters use bank deposits to invest these surpluses, and (ii) banks are lending on these funds to emerging market economies. Bank recycling of petro dollars to emerging market economies is found to be almost as important as in the 1970s and 1980s, even though during the current boom, petro dollar bank flows tend to originate in countries like Russia, Libya, or Nigeria rather than in the Middle East. As one consequence, a fall in oil prices could yet again disrupt financing flows to emerging economies. Especially at risk could be countries that rely heavily on bank loans to finance external deficits, many of them in Emerging Europe.
June 1, 2008
Resolving a Large Contingent Fiscal Liability: Eastern European Experiences
Description: On occasion, a government may find itself confronted with a need to address a large contingent or off balance sheet fiscal liability. Implementing a settlement raises issues of fiscal sustainability and macroeconomic stability. This paper surveys the key design issues, and draws lessons from recent Eastern European experience. It then considers in more detail the particular case of Ukraine, and how it might approach its own large contingent liability-the so-called lost savings-which at end-2007 amounted to as much as 18 percent of GDP.
June 1, 2008
A Model of Sovereign Debt in Democracies
Description: This paper develops and empirically tests a political economy model of sovereign debt. The main incentive for repaying sovereign debt is to maintain access to international capital markets. However, in a democracy, one generation may choose default regardless of its consequences for future generations. An old generation with little concern for its country's access to capital markets can force a default on debt if it has the majority of voters. On the other hand, if the younger generation is more numerous, it can force repayment of previously defaulted debt. Other voter heterogeneities, such as in income, can generate similar results.
June 1, 2008
How does a domestic tax reform affect protection against imports? The case of the Republic of Madagascar
Description: In 2008, Madagascar reformed its domestic tax system. Because the excise duties and VAT regimes were reformed, the taxation of imports has changed. This paper quantifies how the reform changes the protection against imports and the fiscal revenues from taxation of imports. It shows that, even if the reform has only a limited impact on the average rate of protection, it substantially alters the structure of protection across goods. Moreover, because the reform further increases the already high rate of taxation of imports, it will also boost revenue from taxes on imports and reduce the fiscal losses from the SADC FTA.
June 1, 2008
Foreign Reserve Adequacy in Sub-Saharan Africa
Description: This paper looks at the question of adequacy of reserves in sub-Saharan African countries in light of the shocks faced by these countries. Literature on optimal reserves so far has not paid attention to the particular shocks facing low-income countries. We use a two-good endowment economy model facing terms of trade and aid shocks to derive the optimal level of reserves by comparing the cost of holding reserves with their benefits as an insurance against a shock. We find that the optimal level of reserves depends upon the size of these shocks, their probability, and the output cost associated with them,
June 1, 2008
International Reserves and Self-Insurance against External Shocks
Description: The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper develops an analytical framework that helps to quantify the optimal level of international reserves for a small open economy with limited access to foreign capital and subject to natural disasters or terms of trade shocks. International reserves allow the country to relieve balance of payments pressures caused by external shocks and to avoid large fluctuations in imports. I calibrate the model to two regions, the Caribbean and the Sahel, and assess the sensitivity of the results.
June 1, 2008
Stressing to Breaking Point: Interpreting Stress Test Results
Description: This paper illustrates how stress tests of banking systems may be designed to evaluate banks' reaction to shocks of increasing intensity, up to the point where regulatory norms are breached, or banks become insolvent. This approach offers useful insight and guidance for regulatory policy and intervention, using existing methodology and data. The illustrations presented in this paper are a small sample of the wide variety of shocks, scenarios, and assumptions to which this approach may be applied.
June 1, 2008
Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?
Description: This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
June 1, 2008
Constraints on the Design and Implementation of Monetary Policy in Oil Economies: The Case of Venezuela
Description: By definition, fiscal dominance impedes the effective implementation of any monetary strategy aimed at controlling inflation. Economies that exhibit oil dominance-a situation in which oil exports largely affect the main macroeconomic indicators-may also exhibit fiscal dominance. However, in this case, the standard indicators used to gauge the presence of fiscal dominance may fail to give the appropriate signals. The main purpose of this paper is twofold: i) to present a simple framework to analyze fiscal dominance in oil exporting countries and ii) to test the hypothesis of the presence of oil dominance/fiscal dominance (OD/FD) in the case of Venezuela. Using VAR and VEC models it is possible to conclude that there is relevant evidence supporting the validity of the OD/FD hypothesis.