Working Papers
2008
August 1, 2008
Impact of Macroeconomic, Political, and Institutional Factors on the Structure of Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries
Description: Debt crises that have shaken Latin America, Asia, and Russia have brought an increasing attention to the structure of debt in emerging market countries. Using the newly released Jeanne-Guscina EM Government Debt Database 2006 this paper empirically explores the role of macroeconomic, political, and institutional factors in determining the structure of government debt. Results show that unstable macroeconomic environment, poor quality institutions, and uncertain political climate hinder the development of domestic debt market. Moreover, such instability shifts the debt structure away from long-term local currency fixed rate debt towards short-term debt or to debt indexed to foreign currency, short-term interest rates or inflation. Original sin seems to be on the way out, as more and more countries are issuing local currency debt at longer maturities-which can be explained by successful macroeconomic stabilization policies and lessons learned from the debt crises.
August 1, 2008
Zero Corporate Income Tax in Moldova: Tax Competition and Its Implications for Eastern Europe
Description: Global economic integration intensified tax competition and raised concerns about the resulting "race to the bottom", which could undermine public investment and social spending. The aim of this paper is to test predictions that (i) there is interdependence in CIT rate setting in Eastern Europe and that (ii) the recent CIT cut in Moldova may intensify tax competition in the region. It finds that there is indeed evidence that during 1995-2006 countries in Eastern Europe strategically responded to changes in CIT rates in the region and that Moldovan zero CIT is likely to encourage further cuts in CIT. The paper also discusses implications of tax competition for Eastern Europe and finds that FDI flows will not be much affected, tax revenues are likely to decline, the shift in the composition in tax revenue may increase economic efficiency, but decrease equity. Tax coordination, while difficult politically, could help stem further decline in corporate taxation, but any gains might be modest and not certain to exceed the costs of tax coordination. Without tax coordination, however, it is unclear what exactly could stop corporate taxes from falling further.
August 1, 2008
What Drives Household Borrowing and Credit Constraints? Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina
Description: Although Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has experienced rapid growth in credit to households in recent years, most individuals are still credit constrained. This paper analyzes the determinants of household credit demand and credit constraints in BiH. To our knowledge, it is the first study on this topic employing household survey data (2001 and 2004) from Emerging Europe. Our results highlight the impact of the post-conflict and transitional nature of the country on the behavior of borrowers and lenders. As expected, age, income, wealth and education qualifications are the main factors driving credit market participation, while high income and high wealth lower credit constraints. In BiH, the probability of credit market participation peaks at 45 years old, considerably higher than in the advanced countries. At the same time, older individuals are significantly more constrained than their peers in the advanced countries. The results imply that the current credit boom may largely reflect the overall post-war demand, and indicate the worse-off position of the older generation in transition economy. Moreover, the results underscore the structural nature of unemployment as well as the mismatch between education qualifications and earning prospects in BiH. Education variables have no significant effect on the likelihood of being constrained, while, unlike in the advanced countries, being unemployed significantly increases the likelihood.
August 1, 2008
Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reform in Russia
Description: Putting the pension system on a sustainable footing arguably remains the biggest challenge in Russia's economic policies. The debate about the policy options was hitherto constrained by the absence of general equilibrium analysis. This paper fills this gap by simulating their macroeconomic effects in a DSGE model calibrated to Russia's economy-the first of its kind to the best of our knowledge. The results suggest that a minimum benefit level in the public system should optimally be financed through lower government consumption, while higher taxation of labor and capital should be avoided. Reducing public investment spending is superior to increasing consumption taxes unless investment generates high rates of return.
August 1, 2008
Transmission of Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from the 2007 Subprime Crisis
Description: We examine the linkages between market and funding liquidity pressures, as well as their interaction with solvency issues surrounding key financial institutions during the 2007 subprime crisis. A multivariate GARCH model is estimated in order to test for the transmission of liquidity shocks across U.S. financial markets. It is found that the interaction between market and funding illiquidity increases sharply during the recent period of financial turbulence, and that bank solvency becomes important.
August 1, 2008
The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico
Description: Economic policies are often judged by a handful of statistics, some of which may be biased during periods of change. We estimate the income growth implied by the evolution of food demand and durable good ownership in post-reform Brazil and Mexico, and find that changes in consumption patterns are inconsistent with official estimates of near stagnant incomes. That is attributed to biases in the price deflator. The estimated unmeasured income gains are higher for poorer households, implying marked reductions in "real" inequality. These findings challenge the conventional wisdom that post-reform income growth was low and did not benefit the poor.
August 1, 2008
The Option-iPoD
Description: We present a framework to derive the probability of default implied by the price of equity options. The framework does not require any strong statistical assumption, and provide results that are informative on the expected developments of balance sheet variables, such as assets, equity and leverage, and on the Greek letters (delta, gamma and vega). We show how to extend the framework by using information from the price of a zero-coupon bond and CDS-spreads. In the episode of the collapse of Bear Stearns, option-iPoD was able to early signal market sentiment.
August 1, 2008
Are Emerging Asia’s Reserves Really Too High?
Description: Empirical analysis does not suggest that reserves are "too high" in the majority of Asian countries, though China may be a special case. Much of the reserve increase in Asia can be explained by an optimal insurance model under which reserves provide a steady source of liquidity to cushion the impact of a sudden stop in capital inflows on output and consumption. Moreover, the benefits of reserves in terms of reduced spreads on privately held external debt further explains the observed growth in reserves since 1997-98. Using threshold estimation techniques, the paper shows that most of Asia can still benefit from higher reserves in terms of reduced borrowing costs.
August 1, 2008
Monetary Transmission in an Emerging Targeter: The Case of Brazil
Description: This paper lays out a structural model that incorporates key features of monetary transmission in typical emerging-market economies, including a bank-credit channel and the role of external debt accumulation on country risk premia and exchange rate dynamics. We use an SVAR representation of the model to study the monetary transmission in Brazil. We find that interest rate changes have swifter effects on output and inflation compared to advanced economies and that exchange rate dynamics plays a key role in this connection. Importantly, the response of inflation to monetary policy shocks has grown stronger and the output-inflation tradeoff improved since the introduction of inflation targeting.
August 1, 2008
Quality of Financial Sector Regulation and Supervision Around the World
Description: The paper analyzes the quality of financial sector regulation and supervision around the globe. Unlike studies that collect and analyze data on regulation and supervision "on the books," this study also analyzes available information on supervisory implementation, making use of data from IMF-World Bank assessments of compliance with international standards and codes. Incorporating supervisory implementation into the study provides an improved means of assessing countries' regulatory systems. We find that countries' regulatory frameworks score on average one notch below full compliance with the standards (on a 4-notch scale). There are substantial differences in the quality of regulatory and supervisory frameworks across countries, with the income level being a major factor.