Working Papers
2009
July 1, 2009
The Quality of Public Investment
Description: This paper develops a growth model with specialized goods where inefficient and corrupt bureaucracies interact with the provision of public investment services in affecting the productivity of private capital, specialization, and growth. The model provides potential explanations for the contradictory empirical results on the effects of public investment found in the literature as well as for the role of the quality of public infrastructure investment in creating a gap between rich and poor countries. From a policy perspective, the paper suggests that the link between public investment and growth depends critically on the quality and efficiency of public capital.
July 1, 2009
Do Workers’ Remittances Promote Economic Growth?
Description: Over the past decades, workers' remittances have grown to become one of the largest sources of financial flows to developing countries, often dwarfing other widely-studied sources such as private capital and official aid flows. While it is undeniable that remittances have poverty-alleviating and consumption-smoothing effects on recipient households, a key empirical question is whether they also serve to promote long-run economic growth. This study tackles this question and addresses the main shortcomings of previous empirical work, focusing on the appropriate measurement, and incorporating an instrument that is both correlated with remittances and would only be expected to affect growth through its effect on remittances. The results show that, at best, workers' remittances have no impact on economic growth.
July 1, 2009
In Search of Successful Inflation Targeting: Evidence From An Inflation Targeting Index
Description: In a first attempt to treat inflation targeting (IT) as a continuous variable, we construct IT subindices for 21 full-fledged ITers on three dimensions: flexibility, transparency, and explicitness. Comparing flexibility and transparency we find that (1) the impact of flexibility on both the mean and variation of inflation is more quadratic than that of transparency; (2) after adding the transparency index, the impact of flexibility is no longer significant. The significant and negative association between transparency and the level and variation of inflation is confirmed when we check for robustness by controlling for disinflation stage, subsampling, instrumental variable estimation, and principal component analysis (PCA).
July 1, 2009
Introducing the Euro as Legal Tender—Benefits and Costs of Eurorization for Cape Verde
Description: In recent years, recommendations for countries to unilaterally dollarize/eurorize have become common, particularly when the countries lack economic credibility. After exploring the characteristics of dollarizing/eurorizing economies, we look at the merits and costs of unilateral eurorization for Cape Verde, a highly tourism based economy that has become increasingly integrated into the euro-zone area and that has a strong macroeconomic track record. We illustrate that neither the benefits nor the costs of unilateral eurorization are large and conclude that there is no compelling case to change the current exchange rate arrangement at this point in time. Econometrically, we assess the characteristics of dollarized economies and demonstrate that few of them apply to Cape Verde, further confirming that Cape Verde does not fit the pattern of most dollarizing countries.
July 1, 2009
Anatomy of Regional Disparities in the Slovak Republic
Description: This paper examines economic growth and various dimensions of regional disparities in Slovakia. We find that regional disparities in the levels of GDP per capita, labor productivity, and labor utilization have widened since 2000, coinciding with the time that Slovakia initiated negotiations on EU accession. Notwithstanding ?-divergence in the levels, there was conditional ?-convergence in the growth rates of GDP per capita and labor productivity. Improvements in total factor productivity were the main engine of growth of GDP in all regions. Sustaining growth and reducing disparities will require increasing the labor utilization ratio and improving the structural and policy determinants of productivity in the eastern regions. The main policy priorities are to improve transportation infrastructure, enhance cost competitiveness through greater regional differentiation in wages and further decentralization of collective bargaining, and increase accumulation of human capital.
July 1, 2009
The Effects of the Financial Crisison Public-Private Partnerships
Description: The paper investigates the impact of the global financial crisis on public-private partnerships (PPPs) and the circumstances under which providing support to new and existing projects is justified. Based on country evidence, cost of and access to finance are found to be the main channels of transmission of the financial crisis, affecting in particular pipeline PPP projects. Possible measures to help PPPs during the crisis include contract extensions, output-based subsidies, revenue enhancements and step-in rights. To limit government's exposure to risk, while preserving private partner's efficiency incentives, intervention measures should be consistent with the wider fiscal policy stance, be contingent on specific circumstances, and be adequately costed and budgeted. Governments should be compensated for taking on additional risk.
July 1, 2009
The Effects of Economic News on Commodity Prices: Is Gold Just Another Commodity?
Description: The paper uses an event study methodology to investigate which and how macroeconomic announcements affect commodity prices. Results show that gold is unique among commodities, with prices reacting to specific scheduled announcements in the United States and the Euro area (such as indicators of activity or interest rate decisions) in a manner consistent with gold's traditional role as a safe-haven and store of value. Other commodity prices, where such news is significant, exhibit pro-cyclical sensitivities and these have risen somewhat as commodities have become increasingly financialized. These results are important for those trading in the commodity markets on a frequent basis and long-term market participants that take their decisions based on information on price fundamentals, which are reflected in the release of macroeconomic announcements.
July 1, 2009
Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy with Limited Asset Market Participation
Description: This paper characterises the jointly optimal monetary and fiscal stabilisation policy in a new Keynesian model that allows for consumers who lacking access to asset markets consume their disposable income each period. With full asset market participation, the optimal policy relies entirely on the interest rate to stabilise cost-push shocks and government expenditure is not changed. When asset market participation is limited, there is a case for fiscal stabilisation policy. Active use of public spending raises aggregate welfare because it enables a more balanced distribution of the stabilisation burden across asset-holding and non-asset-holding consumers. The optimal response of government expenditure is sensitive to the financing scheme and whether the policymaker has access to a targeted transfer that can directly redistribute resources between consumers.
July 1, 2009
Empirical Evidenceon the Effects of Tax Incentives
Description: This paper considers two empirical questions about tax incentives: (1) are incentives used as tools of tax competition and (2) how effective are incentives in attracting investment? To answer these, we prepared a new dataset of tax incentives in over 40 Latin American, Caribbean and African countries for the period 1985–2004. Using spatial econometrics techniques for panel data to answer the first question, we find evidence for strategic interaction in tax holidays, in addition to the well-known competition over the corporate income tax rate. We find no evidence, however, for competition over investment allowances and tax credits. Using dynamic panel data econometrics to answer the second question, we find evidence that lower corporate income tax rates and longer tax holidays are effective in attracting FDI, but not in boosting gross private fixed capital formation or growth.
July 1, 2009
Governance Practices At Financial Regulatory and Supervisory Agencies
Description: This paper summarizes the results of a survey of financial supervisory agencies in IMF member countries conducted in 2007. Responses were received from 140 financial sector supervisors in 103 countries. A majority of these are separate stand-alone agencies, though, a majority of bank supervisors are part of a central bank. The survey asked respondents about their governance structure and practices, as well as practices and policies related to public transparency and accountability. Most agencies reported having operational independence. Bank supervisors were unique in viewing financial stability as part of their mandate.