Working Papers
2009
November 1, 2009
Improving Surveillance Across the CEMAC Region
Description: In this paper, we consider the design of the surveillance, and, in particular, the fiscal criteria in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) with the view to ensuring they are consistent with internal and external sustainability. This consistency is important within a monetary union because fiscal policy is the primary instrument through which national governments can influence macroeconomic performance. We comment on how surveillance might be improved by broadening the region's current criteria through alternative fiscal indicators, some focus on the scope and nature of external shocks, and attention to the consistency of policies in assuring the viability of the union and its fixed exchange rate regime.
November 1, 2009
From Lombard Street to Avenida Paulista: Foreign Exchange Liquidity Easing in Brazil in Response to the Global Shock of 2008–09
Description: The provision of foreign exchange liquidity by emerging market central banks during the global shock of 2008-09 departs from the domestic liquidity lender of last resort role described by Bagehot in his classic "Lombard Street." This paper documents and analyzes the foreign exchange liquidity providing measures of the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) in response to varied market stresses. These measures appear to have reduced the relative onshore cost of dollar liquidity on impact and seemed to stabilize market expectations of exchange rate volatility. The results suggest that foreign exchange liquidity easing operations may become a standard central bank tool.
November 1, 2009
Institutional Factors and Financial Sector Development: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa
Description: The paper assesses the effects of certain institutional factors on financial sector development in Sub- Saharan Africa (SSA). Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is applied to determine the extent to which these institutions affect the financial sector, and to suggest which institutions play a more critical role in each country. Results suggest that institutional factors affect financial depth and access to financial services more than asset quality and profitability (measured by nonperforming loans (NPL) and return on equity (ROE). The results also suggest that depth of credit information has the strongest influence on the NPL ratio, and political stability affects access the most. Based on model findings, policy implications on prioritizing institutional reforms to enhance financial sector development are suggested for individual countries and for country groups.
November 1, 2009
Macroeconomic Implications for Hong Kong SAR of Accommodative U.S. Monetary Policy
Description: This paper discusses the potential macroeconomic implications for Hong Kong SAR of accommodative monetary policy in the United States. It shows, through model simulations, that a resumption of the credit channel in Hong Kong SAR has the potential to create inflation in both goods and asset markets. Expansionary financial conditions will likely have a greater impact in fueling asset price inflation, manifested in the model through a strong increase in equity prices. Higher asset prices could, in turn, through a financial accelerator mechanism, lead to further credit expansion and an upward cycle of asset prices and credit. This cycle, if unchecked, can potentially feed into volatility in consumption, output and employment and complicate macroeconomic management. The simulation results suggest there is a role for countercyclical prudential regulations to mitigate the amplitude of the cycle and lessen the financial and macroeconomic volatility associated with an unwinding of the credit-asset price cycle.
November 1, 2009
Fiscal Stimulus to the Rescue? Short-Run Benefits and Potential Long-Run Costs of Fiscal Deficits
Description: This paper uses the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model to compute shortrun multipliers of fiscal stimulus measures and long-run crowding-out effects of higher debt. Multipliers of two-year stimulus range from 0.2 to 2.2 depending on the fiscal instrument, the extent of monetary accommodation and the presence of a financial accelerator mechanism. A permanent 0.5 percentage point increase in the U.S. deficit to GDP ratio raises the U.S. tax burden and world real interest rates in the long run, thereby reducing U.S. and rest of the world output by 0.3-0.6 and 0.2 percent, respectively.
November 1, 2009
Governance and Fund Management in the Chinese Pension System
Description: The Chinese pension system is highly fragmented and decentralized, with governance standards, pension fund management practices, their regulation and supervision varying considerably both across the funded components of the Chinese pension system and across provinces. This paper describes the key components of the system, highlights the progress made to date and identifies remaining weaknesses, in regard to information disclosure, the governance framework and pension fund management standards.
November 1, 2009
Treating Intangible Inputs as Investment Goods: The Impact on Canadian GDP
Description: This paper constructs a data set to document firms' expenditures on an identifiable list of intangible items and examines the implications of treating intangible spending as an acquisition of final (investment) goods on GDP growth for Canada. It finds that investment in intangible capital by 2002 is almost as large as the investment in physical capital. This result is in line with similar findings for the U.S. and the U.K. Furthermore, the growth in GDP and labor productivity may be underestimated by as much as 0.1 percentage point per year during this same period.
October 1, 2009
Sovereign Wealth Funds and Financial Stability—An Event Study Analysis
Description: This paper examines financial stability issues that arise from the increased presence of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) in global financial markets by assessing whether and how stock markets react to the announcements of investments and divestments to firms by SWFs using an event study approach. Based on 166 publicly traceable events collected on investments and divestments by major SWFs during the period from 1990 to 2009, the paper evaluates the short-term financial impact of SWFs on selected public equity markets in which they invest. The impact is analyzed on different sectors (financial and nonfinancial), actions (buy and sell), market types (developed and emerging markets), and level of corporate governance (high and low score). Results, based on these 166 events, show that there was no significant destabilizing effect of SWFs on equity markets, which is consistent with anecdotal evidence.
October 1, 2009
Macro-Hedging for Commodity Exporters
Description: This paper uses a dynamic optimization model to estimate the welfare gains of hedging against commodity price risk for commodity-exporting countries. The introduction of hedging instruments such as futures and options enhances domestic welfare through two channels. First, by reducing export income volatility and allowing for a smoother consumption path. Second, by reducing the country's need to hold foreign assets as precautionary savings (or by improving the country's ability to borrow against future export income). Under plausibly calibrated parameters, the second channel may lead to much larger welfare gains, amounting to several percentage points of annual consumption.
October 1, 2009
Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances in Sub-Saharan Africa
Description: The paper investigates the determinants and the macroeconomic role of remittances in sub-Saharan Africa, assembling the most comprehensive dataset available so far on remittances in the region and incorporating data on the diaspora. It finds that remittances are larger for countries with a larger diaspora or when the diaspora is located in wealthier countries, and that they behave countercyclically, consistent with a role as a shock absorber. Although the effect of remittances in growth regressions is negative, countries with well functioning domestic institutions seem nevertheless to be better at unlocking the potential for remittances to contribute to faster economic growth.