Working Papers
2009
December 1, 2009
The Housing Cycle in Emerging Middle Eastern Economies and its Macroeconomic Policy Implications
Description: This paper examines housing finance and housing price dynamics in selected emerging Middle Eastern economies over the past two decades. It finds that (i) mortgage markets have experienced rapid development, which has led to lower private per capita consumer spending volatility this decade; (ii) a downward price correction occurred in the housing market after 2007, which appears to have bottomed out; (iii) the rental market appears to be largely determined by region-specific economic fundamentals-a youthful working-age population and wealth variables; and (iv) a segregation between self-owned house and rental price dynamics exists in this region, rendering the former more sensitive to the business cycle.
December 1, 2009
On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations
Description: Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. The paper's aim is to model macroeconomic consequences of these shocks within a new Keynesian DSGE framework. It models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to discover both accompanying effects of oil price changes and their international transmission mechanisms. Our results indicate that different sources of oil price fluctuations bring remarkably diverse outcomes for both economies.
December 1, 2009
Growth and Structural Reforms: A New Assessment
Description: This paper presents a simultaneous assessment of the relationship between economic performance and three groups of economic reforms: domestic finance, trade, and the capital account. Among these, domestic financial reforms, and trade reforms, are robustly associated with economic growth, but only in middle-income countries. In contrast, we do not find any systematic positive relationship between capital account liberalization and economic growth. Moreover, the effect of domestic financial reforms on economic growth in middle-income countries is explained by improvements in measured aggregate TFP growth, not by higher aggregate investment. We present evidence that variation in the quality of property rights helps explain the heterogeneity of the effectiveness of financial and trade reforms in developing countries. The evidence suggests that sufficiently developed property rights are a precondition for reaping the benefits of economic reform. Our results are robust to endogeneity bias and a number of alternative specifications.
December 1, 2009
The Global Financial Crisis - Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact
Description: We provide one of the first attempts at explaining the differences in the crisis impact across developing countries and emerging markets. Using cross-country regressions to explain the factors driving growth forecast revisions after the eruption of the global crisis, we find that a small set of variables explain a large share of the variation in growth revisions. Countries with more leveraged domestic financial systems and more rapid credit growth tended to suffer larger downward revisions to their growth outlooks. For emerging markets, this financial channel trumps the trade channel. For a broader set of developing countries, however, the trade channel seems to have mattered, with countries exporting more advanced manufacturing goods more affected than those exporting food. Exchange-rate flexibility clearly helped in buffering the impact of the shock. There is also some -weaker-evidence that countries with a stronger fiscal position prior to the crisis were hit less severely. We find little evidence for the importance of other policy variables.
December 1, 2009
The General Data Dissemination System (GDDS)—A Reflection on its First 12 Years and Plans for Taking it Forward
Description: The paper reviews the developments in the last 12 years that have influenced the evolution of the IMF's General Data Dissemination System, leading to reforms to enhance its role. The GDDS itself is part of a broader IMF Data Standards Initiative launched in 1996 to help address macroeconomic data deficiencies, which contributed to the emerging economies' financial crisis during the early 1990s. The review takes stock of the experience with statistical technical assistance provided to member countries and the ongoing reforms, within and outside the IMF, to strengthen the GDDS. Such reforms are particularly relevant in the context of the ongoing economic and financial crisis, which once again underscores the role of statistics in guiding policymakers to strengthen defenses against future crises.
December 1, 2009
Accounting for Global Dispersion of Current Accounts
Description: We undertake a quantitative analysis of the dispersion of current accounts in an open economy version of incomplete insurance model, incorporating important market frictions in trade and financial flows. Calibrated with conventional parameter values, the stochastic stationary equilibrium of the model with limited borrowing can account for about two-thirds of the global dispersion of current accounts. The easing of financial frictions can explain nearly all changes in the current account dispersion in the past four decades whereas the easing of trade frictions has almost no impact on the current account dispersion.
December 1, 2009
Being a Foreigner Among Domestic Banks: Asset or Liability?
Description: Studying a large number of banks in various countries between 1999 and 2006, we document that foreign banks perform better when from a high income country, when host country competition is limited, and when they are large and rely more on deposits for funding. Foreign banks' performance improves over time, possibly as they adapt, and is better when the home country is geographical or cultural (but not institutional) close to the host country. These findings show the importance of controlling for heterogeneity among foreign banks and help reconcile some contradictory results found in the literature on foreign banks' performance.
December 1, 2009
Who Disciplines Bank Managers?
Description: We bring to bear a hand-collected dataset of executive turnovers in U.S. banks to test the efficacy of market discipline in a 'laboratory setting' by analyzing banks that are less likely to be subject to government support. Specifically, we focus on a new face of market discipline: stakeholders' ability to fire an executive. Using conditional logit regressions to examine the roles of debtholders, shareholders, and regulators in removing executives, we present novel evidence that executives are more likely to be dismissed if their bank is risky, incurs losses, cuts dividends, has a high charter value, and holds high levels of subordinated debt. We only find limited evidence that forced turnovers improve bank performance.
December 1, 2009
The Hedonic Country Product Dummy Method and Quality Adjustments for Purchasing Power Parity Calculations
Description: The 2005 International Comparison Program's (ICP) estimates of economy-wide purchasing power parity (PPP) are based on parity estimates for 155 basic expenditure headings, mainly estimated using country product dummy (CPD) regressions. The estimates are potentially inefficient and open to omitted variable bias for two reasons. First, they use average prices across outlets as the left-hand-side variable. Second, quality-adjusted prices of non-comparable replacements, required when products in outlets do not match the required specifications, cannot be effectively included. This paper provides an analytical framework based on panel data and hedonic CPD regressions for ameliorating these sources of bias and inefficiency.
December 1, 2009
How Does Public External Debt Affect Corporate Borrowing Costs In Emerging Markets?
Description: Using data on syndicated loan issuances by emerging market firms, we find that an increase in the external debt of emerging market governments significantly raises the borrowing costs of the domestic corporate sector. This finding suggests that a higher level of public external debt "crowds out" foreign credit to the private sector by increasing the risk of a sovereign debt crisis and thereby making exposure to corporate sector debt less desirable. The effect is stronger in countries with weak creditor rights. The results highlight the potential costs of fiscal expansions for the domestic corporate sector even when debt is issued in foreign markets.