Working Papers
2010
February 1, 2010
Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time: How Useful Is a Simple Phillips Curve in Germany, the UK, and the US?
Description: This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies, we use output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data. This exercise assumes an information set similar to that available to a policymaker at a given point in time since GDP data is subject to sometimes substantial revisions. In addition to using real-time datasets for the UK and the US, we employ a dataset for real-time German GDP data not used before. We find that Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally useful certain output gap estimates are for forecasting inflation.
February 1, 2010
Yield Curve Dynamics and Spillovers in Central and Eastern European Countries
Description: This paper applies the models used to study yield curve dynamics and spillovers in the U.S. and other countries to Central and Eastern European countries (CEE countries). Using the Diebold, Rudebusch, and Aruoba (2006) dynamic version of the Nelson-Siegel representation of the yield curve, the paper finds that the two-way relationship between macroeconomic and financial variables in the CEE countries is similar to the one in mature economies. However, inflation shocks have very little persistence in the CEE countries, owing to the strong convergence trends in these countries-which tend to re-anchor expectations faster. Increased convergence in policies and market integration over time are associated with a stronger correlation between the levels of the yield curves, while the curves slopes are more driven by idiosyncratic factors. Shifts in the euro yield curve are transmitted both to interest rates and inflation expectations in the CEE countries-and transmission is stronger after 2004.
February 1, 2010
On the Solvency of Nations: Are Global Imbalances Consistent with Intertemporal Budget Constraints?
Description: Theory predicts that a nation's stochastic intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied if net exports (NX) and net foreign assets (NFA) satisfy an error-correction specification with a residual integrated of any finite order. We test this hypothesis using data for 21 industrial and 29 emerging economies for the 1970-2004 period to search for existence of negative relationship between NX and NFA. The results show that, despite the large global imbalances of recent years, NX and NFA positions are consistent with external solvency. Pooled Mean Group error-correction estimation yields evidence of a statistically significant, negative response of the NX-GDP ratio to the NFA-GDP ratio that is largely homogeneous across countries.
February 1, 2010
Firm Productivity, innovation and Financial Development
Description: How do firm-specific actions-in particular, innovation-affect firm productivity? And what is the role of the financial sector in facilitating higher productivity? Using a rich firm-level dataset, we find that innovation is crucial for firm performance as it directly and measurably increases productivity. Moreover, its effects on productivity are mediated through the financial sector; firms reap the maximum benefits from innovation in countries with well-developed financial sectors. This effect is particularly important for firms in high-tech sectors, which typically have higher external financing needs.
February 1, 2010
The Composition and Cyclical Behavior of Trade Flows in Emerging Economies
Description: Trade flows data show that the composition and cyclical properties of imports are similar in developed economies and emerging markets (EM) but this is not the case for exports. Unlike developed economies, (i) EM export few or only a selective set of capital goods and (ii) capital good and overall exports tend to be acyclical. The lack of procyclicality in exports drives the strong countercyclicality of EM trade balances observed in previous studies. A quantitative exercise demonstrates how the standard small open economy business cycle model can be improved for EM by incorporating these features.
February 1, 2010
Bankruptcy and Firm Dynamics: The Case of the Missing Firms
Description: Financial frictions have been documented as an important determinant of firm dynamics. In this paper I model bankruptcy procedures, liquidation in particular, as an institutional feature that affects both sides of financial transactions. I construct a model of firm dynamics that generate endogenous borrowing limits and I find that a) inefficient bankruptcy procedures can have quantitatively important aggregate effects, but more importantly; b) that such effects would not be directly visible in the firms that industrial censuses and surveys focus on. I conclude that to capture the effects of the legal framework we need to look beyond the existing firms.
February 1, 2010
Risk and the Corporate Structure of Banks
Description: We identify different sources of risk as important determinants of banks' corporate structures when expanding into new markets. Subsidiary-based corporate structures benefit from greater protection against economic risk because of affiliate-level limited liability, but are more exposed to the risk of capital expropriation than are branches. Thus, branch-based structures are preferred to subsidiary-based structures when expropriation risk is high relative to economic risk, and vice versa. Greater cross-country risk correlation and more accurate pricing of risk by investors reduce the differences between the two structures. Furthermore, the corporate structure affects bank risk taking and affiliate size.
February 1, 2010
Cross-Border Investment in Small International Financial Centers
Description: This note documents and assesses the role of small financial centers in the international financial system using a newly-assembled dataset. It presents estimates of the foreign asset and liability positions for a number of the most important small financial centers, and places these into context by calculating the importance of these locations in the global aggregate of cross-border investment positions. It also reports some information on bilateral cross-border investment patterns, highlighting which countries engage in financial trade with small financial centers.
February 1, 2010
Monetary Policy Transmission in Mauritius Using a VAR Analysis
Description: Applying commonly used vector autoregression (VAR) techniques, this paper investigates the transmission mechanism of monetary policy on output and prices for Mauritius, using data for 1999-2009. The results show that (i) an unexpected monetary policy tightening-an increase in the Bank of Mauritius policy interest rate-leads to a decline in prices and output but the effect on output is weaker; (ii) an unexpected decrease in the money supply or an unexpected increase in the nominal effective exchange rate result in a decrease in prices; and (iii) variations of the policy variables account for small a percentage of the fluctuations in output and prices. Taken together, these results suggest a rather weak monetary policy transmission mechanism. Finally, we find some differences in the transmission mechanism depending on whether core or headline consumer price index is used in the estimations.
February 1, 2010
Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle
Description: This paper presents a detailed analysis of the average fiscal policy responses of oil producing countries (OPCs) to the recent oil price cycle. We find that OPCs worsened their non-oil primary balances substantially during 2003-2008 driven by an increase in primary spending. However, this trend was partially reversed when oil prices went down in 2009. We also find evidence that fiscal policy has been procyclical and has hence exacerbated the fluctuations in economic activity. In addition, we estimate that a small reduction in oil prices could lead to very large financing needs in the near future. Finally, we show that long-term fiscal sustainability positions in OPCs have worsened.