Working Papers
2011
June 1, 2011
Policy Coordination in Fiscal Federalism: Drawing Lessons From the Dubai Debt Crisis
Description: Using the cyclically adjusted non-hydrocarbon primary balance, this paper investigates the evolution of the fiscal policy stance in the United Arab Emirates at consolidated and sub-national levels in the run-up and after the crisis. The empirical findings show that procyclical fiscal policies prior to the crisis reinforced the financial sector cycle, exacerbated the economic upswing, and thereby contributed to the build-up of macro-financial vulnerabilities. The paper also sets out policy lessons to develop a rule-based fiscal framework that would help strengthen fiscal policy coordination between the various layers of government and ensure long-term fiscal sustainability and a more equitable intergenerational distribution of wealth.
June 1, 2011
Euro Area Export Performance and Competitiveness
Description: Concerns about export growth within the euro area peripheral countries due to a lack of competitiveness within the euro area are a key policy issue. Our analysis suggests that: (i) Long-term price elasticities for intra-euro area exports are at least double those for extra-euro area exports, so traditional real effective exchange rate indexes may overstate the effectiveness of euro depreciation in restoring exports growth in the euro area periphery and; (ii) There are surprisingly wide divergences across alternative relative price measures and even when relative price data suggest a steady loss in intra- (and extra-) euro area competitiveness, the pace of deterioration depends on the measure of relative prices used.
June 1, 2011
Developing Asean5 Bond Markets: What Still Needs to Be Done?
Description: This paper examines a range of issues relating to bond markets in the ASEAN5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) - physical infrastructure including trading, clearing and settlement; regulation, supervision and legal underpinnings; and derivatives markets - and finds that the frameworks compare well with other Emerging Markets, following a decade of reform. A number of areas where further enhancements could be made are highlighted. The paper also examines the interrelationship between central bank management of short-term interest rates and domestic currency liquidity, and development of the wider money and bond markets; and suggests some lessons from the recent crisis in developed country financial markets which may be important for the future development of the ASEAN5 markets.
May 1, 2011
Credit Market Imperfection and Sectoral Asymmetry of Chinese Business Cycle
Description: This paper analyzes the role of credit market imperfection and sectoral asymmetry as a means through which shocks to the real economy are propagated and amplified. Drawing on firm-level data to calibrate the model, our simulations capture two key stylized facts of the Chinese economy: that credit constraints are more binding in nontradable sectors than in tradable industries and that output volatility is much greater in China than in industrial economies. We find that the driving force behind our simulation results is strongly related to the non-uniform nature of credit market imperfections in China and their implications for resource allocation and the way in which the economy reacts to shocks. Correctly capturing these macro-financial interactions are essential to understand the dynamic behavior of the Chinese economy.
May 1, 2011
Real Unit Labor Costs Differentials in EMU+L4700: How Big, How Benign and How Reversible?
Description: Real unit labor costs (RULC) growth differentials between euro area members have persisted since EMU began and even widened out in the run-up to the crisis. This paper focuses on the causes underlying such dispersion. According to our empirical findings, persistent RULC growth differentials can be attributed to divergent evolutions in capital-output ratios, nominal effective exchange rates and country-specific institutional features, coupled with an increased sensitivity of RULC to fundamentals following the shift in the monetary regime. Because these RULC growth discrepancies in EMU partly result from heterogeneous structural characteristics, policy action seeking more homogenous regulation across the euro area can make a significant contribution to reduce them.
May 1, 2011
Estimating a Small Open-Economy Model for Egypt: Spillovers, Inflation Dynamics, and Implications for Monetary Policy
Description: This paper estimates a small open economy model for Egypt to analyze inflation, output dynamics and monetary policy during 2005-2010. The interest rate channel is found to be relatively weak in Egypt, complicating the use of interest rates as the immediate target of monetary policy. However, the paper also finds a significant level of persistence in the policy rate, making monetary policy pro-cyclical. More active use of interest rate policy, measures to improve domestic debt markets and a gradual move towards inflation targeting can help support a successful disinflation strategy for Egypt.
May 1, 2011
New Evidenceon Cyclical and Structural Sources of Unemployment
Description: We provide cross-country evidence on the relative importance of cyclical and structural factors in explaining unemployment, including the sharp rise in U.S. long-term unemployment during the Great Recession of 2007-09. About 75% of the forecast error variance of unemployment is accounted for by cyclical factors-real GDP changes (?Okun‘s Law?), monetary and fiscal policies, and the uncertainty effects emphasized by Bloom (2009). Structural factors, which we measure using the dispersion of industry-level stock returns, account for the remaining 25 percent. For U.S. long-term unemployment the split between cyclical and structural factors is closer to 60-40, including during the Great Recession.
May 1, 2011
Ghana: Will it Be Gifted or Will it Be Cursed?
Description: Will Ghana’s oil production from 2011 accelerate progress toward middle-income status, or will it retard gains in living standards through a possible "resource curse"? This paper examines the likelihood of "resource curse" effects, drawing on a dataset of 150 low and middle income countries from 1973 to 2008 using static and dynamic panel estimation techniques. Results confirm that resource rich countries in Ghana’s income range do experience slower growth than their more diversified peers, an effect that appears to be related to weaker governance. Provided that Ghana can preserve and improve its economic governance and also strengthen fiscal management, prospects look good for converting its oil wealth into sustained strong economic growth.
May 1, 2011
Macroeconomic Costs of Higher Bank Capital and Liquidity Requirements
Description: This paper uses a DSGE model with banks and financial frictions in credit markets to assess the medium-term macroeconomic costs of increasing capital and liquidity requirements. The analysis indicates that the macroeconomic costs of such measures are sensitive to the length of the implementation period as well as to the adjustment strategy used by banks, and the scope for monetary policy to respond to the regulatory changes.
May 1, 2011
Development of Financial Markets in Central Europe: the Case of the CE4 Countries
Description: Financial markets in the CE4 countries are still shallow compared to other advanced EU countries. While the government bond markets are comparable in size, measured by capitalization in percent of GDP, the private bond, private credit, and equity markets lag behind. Empirical analysis in this paper helps identify factors that explain this phenomenon. We find that the observed differences cannot be explained by macroeconomic variables only, but incorporating indicators of institutional development and external funding eliminates the gap in the case of the equity and private credit markets. However, for the private bond market a significant gap remains even after accounting for these factors.