Working Papers
2011
July 1, 2011
Is there a Role for Funding in Explaining Recent U.S. Banks' Failures?
Description: This paper tests the role of different banks' liquidity funding structures in explaining the banks' failures, which occurred in the United States between 2007 and 2009. The results highlight that funding is indeed a significant factor in explaining banks' probability of default. By confirming the role of funding as the driver of banking crisis, the paper also recognizes that the new liquidity framework proposed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision appears to have the features to strenghten banks' liquidity conditions and improve financial stability. Its correct implementation together with closer supervision of banks' liquidity and funding conditions appear, however, the determinant for such improvements to be achieved.
July 1, 2011
A Newton's Method for Benchmarking Time Series According to a Growth Rates Preservation Principle
Description: This work presents a new technique for temporally benchmarking a time series according to the growth rates preservation principle (GRP) by Causey and Trager (1981). A procedure is developed which (i) transforms the original constrained problem into an unconstrained one, and (ii) applies a Newton's method exploiting the analytic Hessian of the GRP objective function. We show that the proposed technique is easy to implement, computationally robust and efficient, all features which make it a plausible competitor of other benchmarking procedures (Denton, 1971; Dagum and Cholette, 2006) also in a data-production process involving a considerable amount of series.
July 1, 2011
Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa
Description: This paper investigates economic, political, and institutional constraints to fiscal policy implementation in sub-saharan Africa. We find that planned fiscal adjustments or expansions are less likely to be implemented the larger they are, the more inaccurate the growth forecasts they are based on, the more fragile the regulatory system in the country, and the weaker the institutions framing the design, approval, and execution of the budget. The findings support ongoing efforts in the region to improve the quality and timeliness of economic data; enhance forecasting capacity; adopt realistic fiscal plans; and strengthen governance, budgetary institutions, and public financial management procedures.
July 1, 2011
Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Developing Oil-Producing Countries?
Description: This paper examines the cyclicality of fiscal behavior in 28 developing oil-producing countries (OPCs) during 1990-2009. After testing five fiscal measures - government expenditure, consumption, investment, non-oil revenue, and non-oil primary balance - and correcting for reverse causality between non-oil output and fiscal variables, the results suggest that all of the five fiscal variables are strongly procyclical in the full sample. Also, the results are not uniform across income groups: expenditure is procyclical in the low and middle-income countries, while it is countercyclical in the high-income countries. Fiscal policy tends to be affected by the external financing constraints in the middle- and high-income groups. However, the quality of institutions and political structure appear to be more significant for the low-income group.
July 1, 2011
A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia
Description: We propose a new Financial Condition Index (FCI) for Asian economies based on two different methodologies: a VAR model and a Dynamic Factor Model. The paper shows that this index has predictive power in forecasting GDP growth and may be thus used as a leading indicator. Based on the FCI, financial conditions in Asia tightened substantially earlier in the global crisis, reflecting losses in the stock markets and tighter credit conditions. In early 2010, financial conditions in Asia recovered rapidly and reached precrisis levels, thanks to accommodative monetary policies and a rapid rebound in regional equity markets.
July 1, 2011
Iran: The Chronicles of the Subsidy Reform
Description: On December 18, 2010, Iran increased domestic energy and agricultural prices by up to 20 times, making it the first major oil-exporting country to reduce substantially implicit energy subsidies. This paper reviews the economic and technical issues involved in the planning and early implementation of the reform, including the transfers to households and the public relations campaign that were critical to the success of the reform. It also looks at the reform from a chronological standpoint, in particular in the final phases of the preparation. The paper concludes by an overview of the main challenges for the second phase of the reform.
July 1, 2011
Modeling Optimal Fiscal Consolidation Paths in a Selection of European Countries
Description: For a number of countries - Italy, Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Germany, Ireland, and France - this paper develops an inter-temporal model that elicits the implied country-preferences over balancing the conflicting objectives of fiscal consolidation and reduction of economic slack. The model suggests that some front-loading of adjustment is desirable, although the extent would vary by country preferences. It also finds that proposed consolidations may prove to be stronger than acceptable, especially if somewhat larger than anticipated fiscal multipliers lead to a sizeable economic deceleration.
July 1, 2011
Revenue Administration Reforms in anglophone Africa Since the Early 1990's
Description: Despite positive but mixed progress over two decades, most lower income African countries need to enhance their low tax-to-GDP ratios by mobilizing domestic resources to complement debt relief, donor aid and to achieve the MDG and poverty reduction objectives. With these goals in mind, most African countries have undertaken revenue administration reforms and from the early 1990s, 16 of 19 Anglophone Africa countries established some form of revenue authority (RA) for greater governance, financing, and workforce autonomy. Changes in governance and HR practices are evident, but has revenue administration improved overall? Capacity limitations and integrity issues persist. The introduction of VAT heralded self-assessment, but in most instances without being integrated with income tax administration. Rather, VAT administration was assigned to a separate department. Special units for large taxpayers are now common following initial challenges, but programs for other taxpayer segments are still emerging.
July 1, 2011
The External Impact of China'S Exchange Rate Policy: Evidence From Firm Level Data
Description: We examine the impact of renminbi revaluation on foreign firm valuations, considering two surprise announcements of changes in China’s exchange rate policy in 2005 and 2010 and employing data on some 6,000 firms in 44 economies. Stock returns rise with renminbi revaluation expectations. This reaction appears to reflect a combination of improvements in general market sentiment and specific trade effects. Expected renminbi appreciation has a positive effect on firms exporting to China but a negative impact on those providing inputs for the country’s processing exports. Stock prices rise for firms competing with China in their home market but fall for firms importing Chinese products with large imported-input content. There is also some evidence that expected renminbi appreciation reduces the valuation of financially-constrained firms, presumably because appreciation implies reduced Chinese purchases of foreign securities. The results carry over when we consider ten instances of market-perceived changes in prospective Chinese currency policy.
July 1, 2011
Labor Market Regulations in Low-, Middle- and High-Income Countries: A New Panel Database
Description: This paper documents a new database of labor market regulations during 1980-2005 in 91 countries, including low-, middle- and high-income countries, and contains information on unemployment insurance systems, minimum wage regulations, and employment protection legislation. In this paper, we provide details regarding the data, methodology and sources. Descriptive statistics indicate that there exists substantial heterogeneity in labor market institutions across regions and income groupings, and that much of the sample variation is driven by institutional changes over time in low- and middle-income countries. All indicators are at an annual frequency, allowing for the dating of major changes in regulation, and are based on data from a variety of sources, including the ILO, OECD and national agencies.