Loss-of-Learning and the Post-Covid Recovery in Low-Income Countries

By Edward F Buffie, Christopher S Adam, Luis-Felipe Zanna, Kangni R Kpodar

February 4, 2022

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Format: Chicago

Edward F Buffie, Christopher S Adam, Luis-Felipe Zanna, and Kangni R Kpodar. Loss-of-Learning and the Post-Covid Recovery in Low-Income Countries, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2022) accessed December 3, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

We analyze the medium-term macroeconomic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and associated lock-down measures on low-income countries. We focus on the impact over the medium-run of the degradation of health and human capital caused by the pandemic and its aftermath, exploring the trade-offs between rebuilding human capital and the recovery of livelihoods and macroeconomic sustainability. A dynamic general equilibrium model is calibrated to reflect the structural characteristics of vulnerable low-income countries and to replicate key dimensions of the Covid-19 shock. We show that absent significant and sustained external financing, the persistence of loss-of-learning effects on labor productivity is likely to make the post-Covid recovery more attenuated and more expensive than many contemporary analyses suggest.

Subject: COVID-19, Education, Health, Human capital, Labor, Wages

Keywords: Baseline calibration, Covid recovery, Covid-19, COVID-19, Debt, Fiscal Policy Human Capital, Global, Growth, Human capital, IMF working paper Institute, Internal rate of return, Labor Markets, Loss-of-learning effect, Production function, Public Investment, Wage curve, Wages, Welfare

Publication Details

Pages:

60
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2022/025
Stock No:

WPIEA2022025
ISBN:

9798400200755
ISSN:

1018-5941

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