An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004

An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004–17

By Oya Celasun, Jungjin Lee, Mico Mrkaic, Allan Timmermann

August 6, 2021

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Oya Celasun, Jungjin Lee, Mico Mrkaic, and Allan Timmermann. An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004–17, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2021) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over that period exhibit little bias, and their accuracy is broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics forecasts. By contrast, two- to five-year ahead WEO growth forecasts in 2004-17 tend to be upward biased, and in up to half of countries less accurate than a naïve forecast given by the average growth rate in the recent past. The analysis suggests that a more efficient use of available information on internal and external factors—such as the estimated output gap, projected terms of trade, and the growth forecasts of major trading partners—can improve the accuracy of some economies’ growth forecasts.

Subject: Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial crises, Financial markets, GDP forecasting, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, International trade, National accounts, Output gap, Production, Terms of trade

Keywords: Caribbean, Consensus Economics forecast, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Europe, Forecast error, Forecasting, Forecasting bias, Forecasting bias and efficiency, GDP forecasting, Global, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Middle East, North Africa, Output gap, Terms of trade, WEO growth forecast, World Economic Outlook growth

Publication Details

Pages:

47
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2021/216
Stock No:

WPIEA2021216
ISBN:

9781513587172
ISSN:

1018-5941

Notes

Online Annex for WP/21/216

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