Recoveries After Pandemics: The Role of Policies and Structural Features

By Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre, Swarnali A Hannan

July 9, 2021

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Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre, and Swarnali A Hannan. Recoveries After Pandemics: The Role of Policies and Structural Features, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2021) accessed December 22, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

To shed light on the possible scarring effects from Covid-19, this paper studies the economic effects of five past pandemics using local projections on a sample of fifty-five countries over 1990-2019. The findings reveal that pandemics have detrimental medium-term effects on output, unemployment, poverty, and inequality. However, policies can go a long way toward alleviating suffering and fostering an inclusive recovery. The adverse output effects are limited for countries that provided relatively greater fiscal support. The increases in unemployment, poverty, and inequality are likewise lower for countries with relatively greater fiscal support and relatively stronger initial conditions (as defined by higher formality, family benefits, and health spending per capita).

Subject: COVID-19, Expenditure, Health, Health care spending, Income inequality, Maternity and childcare benefit spending, National accounts, Poverty

Keywords: Copyright page, COVID-19, Expenditure group, Fiscal support, Global, Group four, Health care spending, Health expenditure., Income inequality, Increases in unemployment, Inequality, Informality, Maternity and childcare benefit spending, Output, Pandemics, Potential GDP, Poverty, Social expenditure, Unemployment

Publication Details

Pages:

40
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2021/181
Stock No:

WPIEA2021181
ISBN:

9781513583792
ISSN:

1018-5941

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