Growth Breaks and Growth Spells in Sub-Saharan Africa

By Francisco Arizala, Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia, Charalambos G Tsangarides, Mustafa Yenice

September 8, 2017

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Francisco Arizala, Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia, Charalambos G Tsangarides, and Mustafa Yenice. Growth Breaks and Growth Spells in Sub-Saharan Africa, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2017) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper examines the growth performance of sub-Saharan African countries since 1960 through the lens of growth turning points (accelerations and decelerations) and periods of sustained growth (growth spells). Growth accelerations are generally associated with improved external conditions, increased investment and trade openness, declines in inflation, better fiscal balances, and improvements in the institutional environment. Transitioning from growth accelerations to growth spells often requires additional efforts beyond what is needed to trigger an acceleration. Growth spells are sustained by fiscal policy that prevents excessive public debt accumulation, monetary policy geared toward low inflation, outward-oriented trade policies, and structural policies that reduce market distortions, as well as supportive external environment and improvements in democratic institutions. Overall, determinants of growth spells in sub-Saharan Africa are different from those in the rest of the emerging and developing countries.

Subject: Exchange rate arrangements, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Oil prices, Prices, Public debt, Real exchange rates

Keywords: Accelerations, Africa, Aid flows to sub-Saharan Africa increase, Asia and Pacific, Break size, Developing economy, Duration analysis, Exchange rate arrangements, Fed funds rate, Foreign direct investment, Global, Growth, Growth accelerations in sub-Saharan Africa, Growth spell, Hard landing, Inflation, Middle East, North Africa, Oil prices, Real exchange rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa sample, Sub-Saharan Africa trade integration, Terms of trade, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

37
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2017/202
Stock No:

WPIEA2017202
ISBN:

9781484314166
ISSN:

1018-5941

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