Structural Models in Real Time

By Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Jaromir Benes, Douglas Laxton, Troy D Matheson

March 1, 2010

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Format: Chicago

Kevin Clinton, Marianne Johnson, Jaromir Benes, Douglas Laxton, and Troy D Matheson. Structural Models in Real Time, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2010) accessed December 3, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper outlines a simple approach for incorporating extraneous predictions into structural models. The method allows the forecaster to combine predictions derived from any source in a way that is consistent with the underlying structure of the model. The method is flexible enough that predictions can be up-weighted or down-weighted on a case-by-case basis. We illustrate the approach using a small quarterly structural and real-time data for the United States.

Subject: Consumer price indexes, Economic forecasting, Inflation, Output gap, Unemployment rate

Keywords: WP

Publication Details

Pages:

35
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2010/056
Stock No:

WPIEA2010056
ISBN:

9781451963625
ISSN:

1018-5941

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