How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?
IMF Working Papers, March 1, 2005
Source details
- Canonical URL
- How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Martin Mühleisen, Kornelia Krajnyak, Stephan Danninger, David Hauner, Bennett W Sutton
- Published: March 1, 2005
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451860856.001
Summary
- This paper compares Canadian central government budget forecasting with forecasting by other industrial countries.
- While fiscal forecasting in Canada is governed by one of the strongest institutional frameworks, quantitative analysis suggests that budget projections of macroeconomic and fiscal aggregates have been more cautious than in other countries since the mid-1990s.
- The relatively volatile macroeconomic environment as well as institutional factors, such as Canada's asymmetric deficit target, have likely contributed to this outcome.
Key findings
- Canadian budget projections of macroeconomic and fiscal aggregates have been more cautious than in other industrial countries since the mid-1990s.
- The relatively volatile macroeconomic environment in Canada likely contributed to the more cautious forecasts.
- Institutional factors, including Canada's asymmetric deficit target, likely influenced forecasting behavior.
Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Budget planning and preparation; Expenditure; Fiscal policy; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Public financial management (PFM); Revenue administration
- Keywords: Australia and New Zealand; benchmark country; Budget Forecasting; Budget planning and preparation; budget vote; Canada; country authorities; Fiscal Performance; fiscal policy; IMF country desk; Industrial Countries; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; macroeconomic assumption; Macroeconomic Projections; nominal GDP; private sector; standard deviation; WP
Content in this bundle
- _wp0566 — Methodological Details