How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?

By Martin Mühleisen, Kornelia Krajnyak, Stephan Danninger, David Hauner, Bennett W Sutton

March 1, 2005

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Martin Mühleisen, Kornelia Krajnyak, Stephan Danninger, David Hauner, and Bennett W Sutton. How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2005) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper compares Canadian central government budget forecasting with forecasting by other industrial countries. While fiscal forecasting in Canada is governed by one of the strongest institutional frameworks, quantitative analysis suggests that budget projections of macroeconomic and fiscal aggregates have been more cautious than in other countries since the mid-1990s. The relatively volatile macroeconomic environment as well as institutional factors, such as Canada's asymmetric deficit target, have likely contributed to this outcome.

Subject: Budget planning and preparation, Expenditure, Fiscal policy, Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, Public financial management (PFM), Revenue administration

Keywords: Australia and New Zealand, Benchmark country, Budget Forecasting, Budget planning and preparation, Budget vote, Canada, Country authorities, Fiscal Performance, Fiscal policy, IMF country desk, Industrial Countries, Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, Macroeconomic assumption, Macroeconomic Projections, Nominal GDP, Private sector, Standard deviation, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

49
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2005/066
Stock No:

WPIEA2005066
ISBN:

9781451860856
ISSN:

1018-5941

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