Cyclical Patterns of Government Expenditures in Sub-Saharan Africa: Facts and Factors
IMF Working Papers, December 1, 2009
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- Cyclical Patterns of Government Expenditures in Sub-Saharan Africa: Facts and Factors
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Irene Yackovlev, Victor Duarte Lledo, Lucie Gadenne
- Published: December 1, 2009
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451874198.001
Summary and main findings
- The paper documents cyclical patterns of government expenditures in sub-Saharan Africa since 1970 and explains variation between countries and over time.
- Controlling for endogeneity, it finds government expenditures to be "slightly more procyclical in sub-Saharan Africa than in other developing countries".
- The paper finds "some evidence that procyclicality in Africa has declined in recent years after a period of sharp increase through the 1990s".
Factors associated with procyclicality
- Greater fiscal space, proxied by lower external debt, is associated with diminishing procyclicality.
- Better access to concessional financing, proxied by larger aid flows, is associated with diminishing procyclicality.
- The role of institutions is described as "less clear cut": changes in political institutions have no impact on procyclicality.
Subject tags and keywords (as listed)
- Subject: Expenditure, Fiscal policy, Fiscal space, Procyclicality, Public debt
- Keywords: central government, cyclical fiscal policy, fiscal policy objective, GDP growth, government spending, terms of trade, WP