Broad Money Demand and Asset Substitution in China

June 1, 2009

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Ge Wu. Broad Money Demand and Asset Substitution in China, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2009) accessed December 22, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Recent changes to China's financial system, in particular ongoing interest rate liberalization, gradual movement toward a more flexible exchange rate regime, and rapid development of capital markets, have changed substantially the environment in which monetary policy operates. In light of these changes, we estimate an error correction model using a General-to-Specific methodology and confirm that a stable broad money demand function exists taking proper account of asset substitution, with an income elasticity of less than unity. Current inflation is found to have a significant negative impact on the real money demand. However, money demand does not appear very sensitive to interest rates, possibly reflecting their partial liberalization. Changes in the exchange rate also do not affect money demand significantly, but expectations of a further renminbi appreciation since 2005 appears to induce more money demand. Stock prices are statistically insignificant despite recent investors' interest in equity markets.

Subject: Capital markets, Demand for money, Deposit rates, Exchange rate arrangements, Exchange rates

Keywords: Financial system, Foreign currency, Money demand, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

30
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2009/131
Stock No:

WPIEA2009131
ISBN:

9781451872781
ISSN:

1018-5941

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