Will there Be New Emerging-Market Economies in Africa b+L2280y the Year 2020?

By Jean-Claude Berthélemy, Ludvig Söderling

August 1, 2002

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Jean-Claude Berthélemy, and Ludvig Söderling. Will there Be New Emerging-Market Economies in Africa b+L2280y the Year 2020?, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2002) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper examines past African growth experience and attempts to simulate future ones. In addition to more commonly used determinants of total factor productivity, a measure of the effect of labor reallocation and an index of economic diversification are constructed and included as factors for long-term growth. A simple model is constructed for the purpose of simulating growth scenarios up to the year 2020 for Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Tanzania, and Uganda. Even if one makes relatively optimistic assumptions, Africa is not likely to reach "Asian tiger" levels of growth. The results also suggest that growth will depend, to a large extent, on educational investments and productivity gains in agriculture.

Subject: Education, Exports, Human capital, International trade, Labor, Production, Total factor productivity

Keywords: Africa, CFA franc, Cote d'Ivoire II, Diversification, Diversification gain, Diversification index, Education, Exports, GDP ratio, Growth, Growth scenario, Human capital, Labor reallocation, Production function, Productivity, Productivity gain, Reallocation effect, Reallocation openness, Sub-Saharan Africa, Terms of trade, TFP gain, Total factor productivity, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

37
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2002/131
Stock No:

WPIEA1312002
ISBN:

9781451855296
ISSN:

1018-5941

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