Why India Can Grow At 7 Percent a Year or More: Projections and Reflections
IMF Working Papers, July 1, 2004
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- Why India Can Grow At 7 Percent a Year or More: Projections and Reflections
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Dani Rodrik, Arvind Subramanian
- Published: July 1, 2004
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451854114.001
Summary and central projection
- Using a simple growth accounting framework, the authors project India's future potential output growth rate through 2025.
- Central estimate of annual growth for aggregate output: close to 7 percent.
- Central estimate of annual growth for output per capita: 5.5 percent.
- The authors argue there is perhaps more upside potential than downside risks to the central estimate.
Methodology
- Framework: simple growth accounting framework applied to project potential output through 2025.
- Focus areas in the analysis: Expenditure, Human capital, Labor, Production, Productivity, Public expenditure review, Total factor productivity.
Key findings and interpretations
- Aggregate potential growth projected close to 7 percent per year through 2025.
- Per capita potential growth projected at 5.5 percent per year through 2025.
- Balance of risks: authors contend the upside potential may exceed downside risks for achieving the central estimates.
Thematic emphases and keywords (as presented)
- Subjects: Expenditure, Human capital, Labor, Production, Productivity, Public expenditure review, Total factor productivity.
- Keywords: dependency ratio, East Asia, economic growth performance, government debt-to-GDP ratio, Growth, Human capital, India, India's underrated strength, institutions, level of TFP, Middle East, per capita income, portraying India, Productivity, Public expenditure review, Total factor productivity, WP.
Source: Why India Can Grow At 7 Percent a Year or More: Projections and Reflections — Dani Rodrik, Arvind Subramanian, IMF Working Paper, July 1, 2004.