Terms of Trade Shocks in Africa: Are they Short-Lived or Long-Lived?

March 1, 2000

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Paul Cashin, and Catherine A Pattillo. Terms of Trade Shocks in Africa: Are they Short-Lived or Long-Lived?, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2000) accessed December 26, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper examines the persistence of shocks to the terms of trade, using annual data on 42 Sub-Saharan African countries between 1960-96. We find that the persistence of terms of trade shocks varies widely—for about half the countries such shocks are short-lived, while for one-third of the countries such shocks are long-lived. The countries experiencing long-lived terms of trade shocks are typically those that have large shares of petroleum imports in total imports, small shares of nonfuel commodity exports in total exports, and are highly concentrated in exportable commodities with long-lived price shocks.

Subject: Commodities, Commodity prices, Exports, Import prices, Imports, International trade, Prices, Terms of trade

Keywords: Africa, Commodity export, Commodity prices, Exports, Imports, Income terms of trade, Price index, Price shock, Shock persistence, Shocks to the NBTT, Sub-Saharan Africa, Terms of Trade, Terms of trade data, Terms of trade shock, Time series, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

51
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2000/072
Stock No:

WPIEA0722000
ISBN:

9781451849332
ISSN:

1018-5941

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