Italian Unemployment 1975-1995: An Analysis of Macroeconomic Shocks and Policies Using Evidence From a Structural Vector Autoregression

April 1, 1996

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Charalambos Christofides. Italian Unemployment 1975-1995: An Analysis of Macroeconomic Shocks and Policies Using Evidence From a Structural Vector Autoregression, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 1996) accessed December 22, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper examines the determinants of Italian unemployment by estimating and utilizing a structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Both long-run and short-run macroeconomic determinants of unemployment are examined; the latter are analyzed in much greater detail than is customary in the literature. The relative contribution of long-run and short-run causes is quantified and the different time horizons over which they operate are identified. Policies affecting labor market performance are described and their effect estimated whenever data permit; policy implications are also drawn whenever possible. The most recent labor market reforms together with the atypical effects of the most recent recession are examined, and forecasts of unemployment are produced. A number of scenarios are also constructed to highlight the effect of alternative labor market arrangements.

Subject: Employment, Labor, Labor force, Labor markets, Unemployment, Wages

Keywords: Adjustment effect, Consumption wage, Decrease employment, Employment, Employment adjustment effect, Employment equation, Europe, Factor demand, Insider employment effect, Labor force, Labor markets, Labor-force equation, Labor-force participation coefficient, Product wage, Product wage decrease employment, Unemployment, Wage, Wage elasticity, Wages, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

64
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 1996/036
Stock No:

WPIEA0361996
ISBN:

9781451845402
ISSN:

1018-5941

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