How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook

IMF Working Papers, August 1, 1996

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How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Michael J. Artis
• Published: August 1, 1996
• Series: IMF Working Papers
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451851250.001

Main findings on forecast accuracy

• For the industrial country group:
  • The WEO forecasts for output growth and inflation are satisfactory and pass most conventional tests in forecasting economic developments.
  • Forecast accuracy has not improved over time.
  • Predicting the turning points of the business cycle remains a weakness.

• For the developing countries:
  • Forecasting movements in economic activity is even more difficult.
  • Conventional measures of forecast accuracy are less satisfactory than for the industrial countries.

Analytical focus and methods (as described)

• Evaluation of short-term forecasts produced by the International Monetary Fund and published twice a year in the World Economic Outlook (WEO).
• Use of conventional tests and error statistics to assess forecast performance (references in keywords: error statistics, Theil statistic, Ljung-Box Q, significance level, time series).

Themes and subject coverage

• Balance of payments
• Current account balance
• Economic forecasting
• Export performance
• Inflation
• International trade
• Prices
• Production
• Production growth

Keywords and regional scope (as listed)

• actual value, Africa, Asia and Pacific, country desk, Current account balance, error statistics, Europe, Export performance, Inflation, Ljung-Box Q, Middle East, Production growth, significance level, terms of trade, Theil statistic, time series, Western Hemisphere, WP