Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices

By C. John McDermott, Paul Cashin, Alasdair Scott

November 1, 1999

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C. John McDermott, Paul Cashin, and Alasdair Scott. Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 1999) accessed November 23, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper examines the duration and magnitude of commodity-price cycles. It finds that for most commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they rebound in a subsequent boom. There is little evidence of a consistent ‘shape’ to commodity-price cycles. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump, and for most commodities, the probability of an end to a boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the boom.

Subject: Agricultural commodities, Agricultural prices, Commodities, Commodity booms, Commodity prices

Keywords: Boom, Commodity price, Good, Price, Slump, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

25
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 1999/155
Stock No:

WPIEA1551999
ISBN:

9781451857290
ISSN:

1018-5941

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