Working Papers
2024
February 9, 2024
The Legal Foundations of Public Debt Transparency: Aligning the Law with Good Practices
Description: Debt opacity burdens the public and can exacerbate debt vulnerabilities in many countries. Both low-income and developing countries and emerging market economies have critical gaps in debt transparency, and the implementation of international standards and guidelines has lagged. The paper surveys the legal frameworks of sixty jurisdictions and reveals the critical weaknesses that hinder debt transparency, which include weak reporting obligations, limited coverage of public debt, inadequate monitoring, unclear borrowing and delegation processes, unfettered confidentiality arrangements and weak accountability mechanisms. Because laws entrench practices and bind the discretion of policy makers and debt managers alike, subjecting them to public scrutiny, legal reform is a necessary part of any solution to the problem of hidden debt, though it may entail a difficult and time intensive process in many jurisdictions.
February 9, 2024
Firms’ Resilience to Energy Shocks and Response to Fiscal Incentives: Assessing the Impact of 2022 Energy Crisis
Description: The energy price shock in 2022 led to government support for firms in some countries, sparking debate about the rationale and the nature of such support. The results from nationally representative firm surveys in the United States and Germany indicate that firms in these countries were generally resilient. Coping strategies adopted by firms included the pass-through of higher costs to consumers, adjustment of profit margins (United States) and investments in energy saving and efficiency (Germany). Firms in energy-intensive industries would have been significantly more affected if international energy prices were fully passed through to domestic prices in Europe. Survey responses further reveal that most firms are uncertain about the impact of recent policy announcments on green subsidies. Firms take advantage of fiscal incentives to accelerate their climate-related investment plans are often those that have previous plans to do so. These findings suggest better targeting and enhancing policy certainty will be important when facilitate the green transition among firms.
February 9, 2024
The Impact of Derivatives Collateralization on Liquidity Risk: Evidence from the Investment Fund Sector
Description: Stricter derivative margin requirements have increased the demand for liquid collateral, but euro area investment funds, which use derivatives extensively, have been reducing their liquid asset holdings. Using transaction-by-transaction derivatives data, we assess whether the current levels of funds’ holdings of cash and other highly liquid assets would be adequate to meet funds’ liquidity needs to cover variation margin calls on derivatives under a range of stress scenarios. The estimates indicate that between 13 percent and 33 percent of euro area funds with sizeable derivatives exposures may not have sufficient liquidity buffers to meet the calls under adverse market shocks. As a result, they are likely to redeem money market fund (MMF) shares, procyclically sell assets, and draw on credit lines, thus amplifying the market dynamics under such stress scenarios. Our findings highlight the importance of further work to assess the potential role of macroprudential policies for nonbanks, particularly regarding liquidity risk in funds.
February 9, 2024
U.S. Inflation Expectations During the Pandemic
Description: This paper studies how and why inflation expectations have changed since the emergence of Covid-19. Using micro-level data from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, we show that the distribution of consumer expectations at one-year and five-ten year horizons has widened since the surge of inflation during 2021, along with the mean. Persistently high and heterogeneous expectations of consumers with less education and lower income are mainly responsible. A simple model of adaptive learning is able to mimic the change in inflation expectations over time for different demographic groups. The inflation expectations of low income and female consumers are consistent with using less complex forecasting models and are more backward-looking. A medium-scale DSGE model with adaptive learning, estimated during 1965-2022, has a time-varying solution that produces lower forecast errors for inflation than a variant with rational expectations. The estimated model interprets the surge of inflation in 2021 mainly as the result of a price markup shock, which is more persistent and requires a larger and more persistent monetary policy response than under rational expectations.
February 2, 2024
The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy
Description: We study the role of regional housing markets in the transmission of US monetary policy. Using a FAVAR model over 1999q1–2019q4, we find sizeable heterogeneity in the responses of US states to a contractionary monetary policy shock. Part of this regional variation is due to differences in housing supply elasticities, household debt overhang, and housing wealth (volatility). Our analysis indicates that house prices and consumption respond more in supply-inelastic states and in states with large household debt imbalances, where negative housing wealth effects bite more strongly and borrowing constraints become more binding. Moreover, financial stability risks increase sharply in these areas as mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures surge, worsening banks’ balance sheets. Finally, monetary policy may have a stronger effect on housing tenure decisions in supply-inelastic states, where the homeownership rate and price-to-rent ratios decline by more. Our findings stress the importance of regional housing supply conditions in assessing the macrofinancial effects of rising interest rates.
February 2, 2024
Who Pays the Bill? Distributional and Fiscal Consequences of Elevated Inflation in Thailand
Description: This paper analyzes the distributional impacts of inflation in Thailand. For that aim, the paper uses rich micro-survey data on 46,000 Thai households to study the effect of the recent elevated inflation on poverty, its distributional effects on different income levels, and the fiscal cost to compensate households from real income losses. To study the multidimensional impact of inflation, the paper also studies how inflation differentially affects households through the consumption, income, and wealth channel. The analysis shows that under a baseline scenario, poverty in Thailand could increase by 1.3 percentage points—about 900,000 people—in the absence of government intervention. Targeted fiscal support to only compensate households that are below the national poverty line from rising inflation amount to 0.05 percent of GDP. However, fiscal support to compensate relatively rich households, defined as those above the median of the income distribution, amount to 1.4 percent of GDP. Moreover, due to high levels of debt, richer households benefit from inflation relative to poorer households. Finally, the paper also delves into policy responses undertaken by the Thai government and Asian and emerging economies to mitigate elevated inflation.
February 2, 2024
Geopolitics and International Trade: The Democracy Advantage
Description: Do political regimes determine how geopolitics influence international trade? This paper provides an empirical answer to the question by analyzing the joint impact of democracy and geopolitical distance between countries with an augmented gravity model of bilateral trade flows and an extensive dataset of more than 4 million observations on 59,049 country-pairs over the period 1948–2018. Implementing the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood regression and the two-stage least squares with instrumental variable approach, I find that geopolitical developments are not as important as income and geographical distance in determining bilateral trade flows and that democracy fosters international trade and moderates the potential negative impact of geopolitics. While the impact of democracy and its interaction with geopolitical distance are significant across all countries, the magnitude of these effects is substantially larger in advanced economies than in developing countries, reflecting the greater strength of democratic institutions, on average, in advanced economies.
February 2, 2024
Is Schumpeter Right? Fintech and Economic Growth
Description: The rise of fintech is revolutionizing the financial landscape, with products and companies advancing innovative technologies to improve and automate financial services. In this paper, I use a novel dataset and implement a dynamic modelling to investigate the relationship between fintech and economic growth in a panel of 198 countries over the period 2012–2020. This cross-country approach—utilizing direct measures of fintech and dealing with potential endogeneity—provides interesting empirical insights. First, the impact magnitude and statistical significance of fintech on real GDP per capita growth depend on the type of instrument (digital lending vs. digital capital raising). While digital lending has a statistically significant positive effect on economic growth, digital capital raising has a large but insignificant effect. Second, the overall impact of fintech including all instruments is positive and statistically significant because of the overwhelming share of digital lending in total. Finally, while the positive relationship between fintech and growth is stronger in magnitude in advanced economies, the statistical significance of this effect is higher in developing countries. Taken as a whole, these results confirm Schumpeter’s prediction that financial innovation can promote growth, but not every type of fintech becomes an accelerator.
February 2, 2024
ASAP: A Conceptual Model for Digital Asset Platforms
Description: This working paper inaugurates the "Technology Fundamentals for Digital Finance" series, concentrating on the technical aspects of financial Digital Assets. The series aims to facilitate the use of a clear terminology in a nascent platform-oriented paradigm of financial infrastructures, by laying the groundwork for technical discussions on digital asset standards. The paper introduces a conceptual model named ASAP (Access, Service, Asset, Platform) for Digital Asset Platforms (DAP), leveraging insights from IT industry practices and experiments by central banks. The ASAP model is illustrated through examples and use cases of tokenized assets, to demonstrate the possible usage and merits of modeling Digital Asset Platforms with four layers. Just as the utilization of a seven-layer model (often refered to as TCP/IP) has been fundamental to the interoperability of the internet, it is anticipated that the four-layer ASAP model for Digital Asset Platforms will similarly promote cross-platform interoperability, including across various jurisdictions, paving the way for a more cohesive digital asset ecosystem.
January 26, 2024
Does FinTech Increase Bank Risk Taking?
Description: Motivated by its rapid growth, this paper investigates how FinTech activities influence risk taking by financial intermediaries (FIs). In this context, this paper revisits an ongoing debate on the impact of competition on financial stability: on one side, it is argued that greater competition encourages greater risk taking (competition-fragility hypothesis), while the other side of the debate asserts that more competition can increase financial stability (competition-stability hypothesis). Using a curated databased covering over 10,000 FIs and global FinTech activities, we find a robust relationship whereby greater FinTech presence is associated with heightened risk taking by FIs, offering support for the competition-fragility hypothesis. However, the inclusion of bank-, industry-, and country-specific characteristics can alter this relationship. Importantly, there is suggestive evidence indicating that in certain cases, greater FinTech presence may be associated with less FI risk taking amid stronger domestic institutions. Notwithstanding the relevance for policy, this paper presents a novel framework that may help reconcile some of the conflicting results in the literature which have found supportive evidence for each of the two competing hypotheses.