IMF Working Papers

A Monetary and Financial Policy Analysis and Forecasting Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0)

By Francisco G. Dakila Jr., Dennis M. Bautista, Jasmin E. Dacio, Rosemarie A. Amodia, Sarah Jane A. Castañares, Paul Reimon R. Alhambra, Jan Christopher G. Ocampo, Charles John P. Marquez, Mark Rex S. Romaraog, Philippe D Karam, Daniel Baksa, Jan Vlcek

July 12, 2024

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Francisco G. Dakila Jr., Dennis M. Bautista, Jasmin E. Dacio, Rosemarie A. Amodia, Sarah Jane A. Castañares, Paul Reimon R. Alhambra, Jan Christopher G. Ocampo, Charles John P. Marquez, Mark Rex S. Romaraog, Philippe D Karam, Daniel Baksa, and Jan Vlcek. A Monetary and Financial Policy Analysis and Forecasting Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0), (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2024) accessed December 26, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has enhanced its macroeconomic modeling through the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS), transitioning from a multi-equation econometric model to a modernized system centered on the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). In its new version, the Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0) integrates forward-looking projections, endogenous monetary policy, fiscal and macroprudential considerations, labor dynamics, and addresses complex shocks and policy trade-offs, facilitating effective policy mix determination and supporting real-time policy evaluation. The BSP’s modernization efforts also include refining forecast calendars and strengthening communication channels to accommodate the operationalization of PAMPh2.0. Detailed validation methods ensure empirical consistency. Finally, future refinements will align the model with evolving empirical findings and theoretical insights, ensuring its continued relevance.

Keywords: Fiscal Policy, Forecasting and Policy Analysis, Macroprudential Policies, Monetary Policy, Quarterly Projection Model

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    116

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2024/148

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA2024148

  • ISBN:

    9798400284298

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941