IMF Working Papers

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Francisco G. Dakila Jr., Dennis M. Bautista, Jasmin E. Dacio, Rosemarie A. Amodia, Sarah Jane A. Castañares, Paul Reimon R. Alhambra, Jan Christopher G. Ocampo, Charles John P. Marquez, Mark Rex S. Romaraog, Philippe D Karam, Daniel Baksa, and Jan Vlcek. A Monetary and Financial Policy Analysis and Forecasting Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0), (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2024) accessed November 21, 2024

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Summary

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has enhanced its macroeconomic modeling through the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS), transitioning from a multi-equation econometric model to a modernized system centered on the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). In its new version, the Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0) integrates forward-looking projections, endogenous monetary policy, fiscal and macroprudential considerations, labor dynamics, and addresses complex shocks and policy trade-offs, facilitating effective policy mix determination and supporting real-time policy evaluation. The BSP’s modernization efforts also include refining forecast calendars and strengthening communication channels to accommodate the operationalization of PAMPh2.0. Detailed validation methods ensure empirical consistency. Finally, future refinements will align the model with evolving empirical findings and theoretical insights, ensuring its continued relevance.

Keywords: Fiscal Policy, Forecasting and Policy Analysis, Macroprudential Policies, Monetary Policy, Quarterly Projection Model

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    116

  • Volume:

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  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

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  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2024/148

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA2024148

  • ISBN:

    9798400284298

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941