Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Western Hemisphere: Shifting Winds, New Policy Challenges

Western Hemisphere, November 3, 2011

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Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Western Hemisphere: Shifting Winds, New Policy Challenges

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Bibliographic details

• Published: November 3, 2011
• Series: Western Hemisphere
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781616351304.086

Outlook overview

• Despite the recent deterioration in the global economic environment, projections for the region involve only a modest worsening of the outlook.
• The October 2011 Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere cautions that there are severe downside risks.

Downside risks and channels

• A sharp slowdown in Asia, for example in response to a recession in advanced economies, could impact commodity prices, with negative effects on Latin American commodity exporters.
• With global monetary policy likely to remain accommodative, capital flows could exacerbate overheating and amplify vulnerabilities in emerging markets.
• Countries with strong real linkages to the United States face a somewhat weaker outlook and should give priority to reducing public debt.
• Although much of the Caribbean is recovering from a prolonged recession, the outlook remains constrained by high public debt and weak tourism flows.

Findings on policies and terms-of-trade shocks

• This issue finds that policies can play an important role in mitigating the economic impact of terms-of-trade shocks.
• The report underscores the need to rebuild policy buffers.

Subject areas and keywords

• Subject: Commodities, Commodity prices, Fiscal consolidation, Fiscal policy, International trade, Prices, Public debt, Terms of trade
• Keywords: Caribbean, Central America, commodity, commodity exporter, commodity price, Commodity prices, country, debt ratio, Europe, Fiscal consolidation, Global, market, monetary policy, price, REO, South America, Terms of trade, terms of trade shock

References

• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/wh
• United States and the IMF
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• Commodities
• Commodity prices
• Fiscal consolidation
• Fiscal policy
• International trade
• Prices
• Public debt
• Terms of trade
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