Country Reports

July 16, 2013

Romania: Romania–Seventh and Eighth Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria

Description: This paper discusses Romania’s Seventh and Eighth Reviews Under the Stand-by Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria. Continued strong fiscal consolidation would enable Romania to exit the EU Excessive Deficit Procedure by mid-2013; prudent monetary policy kept core inflation low, and close supervision buttressed banking sector stability. Fiscal and international reserves buffers and a well-capitalized banking sector provide a cushion against shocks. Market sentiment toward Romania improved as political uncertainty subsided in the aftermath of the December 2012 parliamentary elections, which the ruling coalition won. Structural reforms, however, advanced slowly, and the recovery has lagged behind that in most other European emerging economies.

July 16, 2013

Ireland: Fiscal Transparency Assessment

Description: This paper discusses Ireland’s Fiscal Transparency Assessment. The Irish government has ambitious plans to improve further the timeliness, quality, and comprehensiveness of its budgets, statistics, and accounts. Ireland has the capacity and information to bring its fiscal transparency practices into line with international best practice standards within a reasonable time frame, and at relatively modest additional cost. The Irish administration already incurs many of the fixed and ongoing costs associated with modern accrual-based accounting, and risk-based fiscal management. Fiscal reporting in Ireland is characterized by a high degree of disclosure but also a high degree of fragmentation.

July 15, 2013

Republic of Serbia: Selected Issues Paper

Description: This Selected Issues paper on Serbia’s Article IV Consultation reviews the precrisis growth paradigm and its legacy vulnerabilities. The underlying growth model proved vulnerable to shocks, being associated with a high share of nontradable, low domestic savings, and a fragile external position. Convergence to EU income levels was relatively moderate. Economic growth fell following the onset of the global financial crisis and further slowed the pace of convergence. Serbia’s postcrisis income gap remains larger by comparison to more advanced regional economies. Structural bottlenecks continue to undermine overall competitiveness and constrain growth potential.

July 15, 2013

Republic of Serbia: 2013 Article IV Consultation

Description: This staff report on the Republic of Serbia’s Article IV Consultation highlights economic background and policies. The global financial crisis exposed Serbia’s unsustainable growth model and its key vulnerabilities. Robust growth has not taken off, and economic activity is below precrisis levels amid widespread structural rigidities. Serbia’s economy is recovering from recession but faces multiple challenges. The successful launch of Fiat production in 2012 is contributing to growth this year, and inflation is declining. Potential growth is constrained by multiple structural hurdles resulting from unfinished structural reforms. Rebalancing the policy mix and launching a comprehensive package of structural reforms are critical to unlocking Serbia’s growth potential.

July 15, 2013

Spain: Financial Sector Reform: Third Progress Report

Description: This paper presents the Third Progress report on Spain’s financial sector reform. Correction of Spain’s large external, fiscal, and financial imbalances is well underway, with policy actions at both the European and Spanish levels helping to ease market pressures over the last year. Financial sector dynamics still contribute to recessionary pressures, with credit contraction accelerating, lending standards tightening, and lending rates to firms rising. Actions taken by the authorities under the European Stability Mechanism-supported program have helped tackle the legacy risk from the real estate boom bust, but macroeconomic risks still loom large.

July 15, 2013

Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement

Description: This paper discusses the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe’s First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. The economy remains vulnerable to external and domestic shocks. Growth decelerated to 4 percent in 2012, reflecting persistent global uncertainties, particularly in Europe, which contributed to a slowdown in foreign direct investment, and in the execution of the foreign-financed public investment program. Commercial banks profitability and capital-to-risk weighted assets ratio declined in 2012, reflecting more challenging lending conditions. The central bank continues to strengthen its banking supervision function through on-site inspections and enforcement of banking regulation.

Notes: Also Available in Portuguese

July 12, 2013

Malta: 2013 Article IV Consultation

Description: This staff report on Malta’s Article IV Consultation highlights economic development and policies. Risks from the large international bank sector appear contained given limited balance-sheet exposure to the Maltese economy, though continued vigilance is warranted. Regulatory changes to increase loan loss provisions, and the funding of the deposit compensation scheme would help contain risks in the domestic banking sector. The main challenges for fiscal policy are to reverse the deterioration of public finances, and to strengthen the governance framework. Additional measures are needed to ensure that the fiscal deficit falls below 3 percent of GDP in 2013 and that public debt remains on a sustainable path.

July 11, 2013

Seychelles: 2013 Article IV Consultation, Seventh Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criterion

Description: This staff report discusses Seychelles 2013 Article IV Consultation, Seventh Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criterion. The repayment of domestic debt, a preference for foreign financing, and shallow domestic financial markets have resulted in significant structural rupee liquidity in the banking system. Tourism has been the main driver of growth, but there is a tension with the number of tourists the islands can absorb. Despite the challenging global environment, tourist arrivals have grown strongly, with diversification toward nontraditional markets more than offsetting stalling European arrivals. The Seychellois rupee is broadly in line with medium-term fundamentals, and tourism remains competitive among peers.

July 10, 2013

Colombia: Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line—Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia

Description: This staff report on Colombia’s arrangement under the Flexible Credit Line highlights economic policies and development. Colombia’s economic performance in recent years has been very strong, underpinned by a very strong institutional framework and prudent macroeconomic management. Following a sharp slowdown in 2008–2009, output growth rebounded vigorously, and inflation stayed within the official target range. A very strong policy framework—comprising an inflation-targeting regime, a flexible exchange rate, effective financial sector supervisionand regulation, and a medium-term fiscal framework—provided policy space to undertake timely and effective countercyclical measures to mitigate the effects of the global financial crisis, and skillful policy management helped maintain strong growth with low inflation.

July 9, 2013

Republic of Mozambique: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation, Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument, Request for a Three-Year Policy Support Instrument and Cancellation of Current Policy Support Instrument

Description: The staff report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation for the Republic of Mozambique focuses on the development agenda and appropriate policy priorities to successfully transition to a resource-rich era. These priorities include skillful medium-term management of the impact of developing coal and gas resources, high public investment spending on growth, external competitiveness, and through increased commercial borrowing, on debt sustainability and investment planning. Mozambique has a high rate of public investment of which more than half is financed domestically. The authorities are working to strengthen their project selection and economic profitability analysis capacity, and to assess the impact of related borrowing on public debt.

Notes: Also Available in Portuguese