Country Reports

July 24, 2013

Saudi Arabia: 2013 Article IV Consultation

Description: This staff report on Saudi Arabia’s 2013 Article IV Consultation discusses economic policies and development. As the largest crude oil exporter, and the only producer with significant spare capacity, Saudi Arabia plays a systemic and stabilizing role in the global oil market. In 2011, Saudi Arabia formally committed through the G20 to use its systemic position in the oil market to promote global stability. Saudi Arabia raised oil production to a 30-year high to ensure demand was met the abrupt decline in Libyan production in 2011, and continued geopolitical tensions in 2012. Growth in fiscal spending has contributed to continued robust growth in private-sector credit of more than 16 percent, and high levels of liquidity in the banking system.

Notes: Also Available in Arabic

July 24, 2013

Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper on Saudi Arabia assesses Saudi Arabia’s role in the oil market and global economy. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest producer and exporter of oil, has long played a systemically important role in the global oil market. Short-term fluctuations in Saudi Arabia’s oil production have partially reflected attempts to stabilize the global oil market. Saudi Arabia has on several occasions used its systemic role to raise production to fill global demand gaps created by large supply disturbances. The authorities have made significant investments in higher education to enable productive private-sector employment for new Saudi labor force entrants.

Notes: Also Available in Arabic

July 23, 2013

Republic of Poland: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Poland constructs a financial conditions index for Poland to explore the link between financial conditions and real economic activity. Measures to contain the fiscal deficit in the aftermath of the global financial crisis led to a reduction in the headline deficit from 7.9 percent of GDP in 2010 to 3.9 percent in 2012. The authorities plan to implement a permanent fiscal rule. This would complement existing public debt limits, which have proven useful but insufficient in the past. Regarding mechanism design, the authorities have expressed their preference for a simple expenditure rule, on grounds of transparency, predictability, and ease of implementation across budgetary units.

July 23, 2013

Republic of Poland: Financial System Stability Assessment

Description: This paper on the Republic of Poland’s Financial System Stability Assessment highlights economic policies and development. Skillful policy management and sound fundamentals have allowed the economy to weather the global financial crisis, and the euro area turmoil. Risk drivers include slow growth abroad and domestically, rising unemployment, and declining residential real estate prices. Vulnerabilities lie in interconnectedness with the euro area, and exposure to foreign exchange risk and foreign investors, which in turn may pressure bank funding, especially in the absence of long-term domestic funding sources. Stress tests suggest that vulnerabilities are not likely to become systemic, though some pockets of weakness were identified.

July 23, 2013

Republic of Poland: 2013 Article IV Consultation

Description: This staff report for the Republic of Poland’s 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights economic development and policies. The current account in 2012 was primarily financed by EU transfers and foreign direct investment (FDI), notwithstanding a reduction in net FDI inflows. Moderate outflows from the domestic banking system were more than offset by strong portfolio inflows into the government bond market. The current account deficit and real effective exchange rate are broadly in line with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies according to the External Balance Assessment models. The largely foreign-owned banking system has remained well-capitalized, profitable, and liquid.

July 23, 2013

Belize: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation

Description: This IMF staff report on Belize’s 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights economic developments and macroeconomic outlook. Macroeconomic developments in 2012 were underpinned by robust output growth but clouded by uncertainties surrounding the debt restructuring and growth prospects of major trading partners. New provisioning, and loan classification standards implemented by the central bank at end-2011 have resulted in declining nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the banking system and improving provisioning. NPLs remain high at 20 percent of total loans at end-2012, with heavy concentration in one domestic and some international banks. In compliance with the new prudential measures, banks have been required to write off bad loans within 3–5 years.

July 23, 2013

Liberia: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of Performance Criteria

Description: This paper describes Liberia’s First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of Performance Criteria. Nonresource real GDP growth, in particular, while still on an upward trend has been revised down for 2013, reflecting the sluggish pace of public investment. Nonresource growth is expected to pick up in the medium term, in line with an expected increase in public investment albeit the investment path is somewhat more moderate than originally planned and provided project execution speeds up.

July 23, 2013

Republic of Kosovo: 2013 Article IV Consultation

Description: This staff report on the Republic of Kosovo’s 2013 Article IV Consultation focuses on economic and financial developments. Kosovo’s economy is excessively dependent on inflows from the diaspora. It is found that while these inflows support incomes, they finance primarily consumption and investments in nontradables, such as real estate or services, and contribute little to the build-up of productive capacity. Goods exports are less than 10 percent of GDP and concentrated in sectors with a low-value added component, notably metals. A coherent strategy is needed to improve competitiveness, foster the development of a tradable sector, and lay the basis for self-sustained growth.

July 23, 2013

Republic of Kosovo: Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement

Description: This staff report on the Republic of Kosovo’s Fourth Review under the Stand-By Arrangement discusses macroeconomic and financial policies. Banking-sector soundness indicators have remained largely unchanged. The revenue shortfall owed to a mix of lower than programmed customs receipts, and delays in receiving transfers from the sales of telecommunication licenses, and lignite royalties. The shortfall was only partially compensated by higher domestic tax collection, and the earlier than expected receipt in dividends from Post and Telecom of Kosovo. Passage of the rules-based fiscal framework would be a key step toward ensuring fiscal sustainability in the longer term.

July 23, 2013

Democratic Republic of the Congo: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper

Description: This Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper on the Democratic Republic of Congo discusses economic policies and development. The macroeconomic and budget framework has been developed to take into account the effects of sectoral policies to maintain macroeconomic stability, a necessary condition for laying the foundation of economic growth and poverty reduction. It is based on the profile of public spending, the assessment of costs for achieving the Millennium Development Goals by 2020, and the sector-based economic growth theories taking into account the uncertainties of the international environment and the real potential of the Congolese economy. It is found that it allows for a realistic programming of public spending while highlighting the main budgetary choices proposed by the government.

Notes: Also available in French