Country Reports
2013
August 2, 2013
Guatemala: 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that key developments in Guatemala since the 2012 Article IV Consultation have been positive. As commodity prices stabilized and domestic demand pressures weakened, inflation fell sharply in 2012—closing at 3.4 percent by December. Although subsequently inflation rose somewhat—to 4.3 percent by May 2013, owing mainly to domestic prices—it still remained within the central bank’s target range of 4.0±1 percent. The economic outlook is generally benign. Growth is expected to edge up to 3½ percent in 2013 and 2014, reaching its potential rate, supported by ongoing buoyant domestic demand and healthy private-sector credit.
August 2, 2013
Guatemala: Selected Issues and Analytical Notes
Description: This Selected Issues paper estimates both Guatemala’s potential output and output gap using a wide range of econometric techniques. The analysis suggests that Guatemala’s potential output growth is about 3.5 percent for the whole sample period and that the output gap is almost closed. Results are highly robust among different methodologies. Among the methods used, several well-known time series filters and two different estimations of a state-space model are included. Additionally, a test for structural breaks in the series of potential GDP is presented. All methodologies conclude that the output gap at the end of 2012 is almost closed at -0.2 percent of potential GDP.
August 2, 2013
Solomon Islands: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement—Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Solomon Islands
Description: This paper discusses Solomon Islands’ First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. The three-year arrangement under the ECF is on track. All December 2012 and continuous performance criteria have been met, except for the cash balance floor, which was temporarily missed by a small amount. The indicative target on health and education for December 2012 was also missed by a very small margin. The IMF staff recommends completion of the review and supports the authorities’ request for a waiver of the nonobservance of the cash balance floor at end-December, and the modification of end-June 2013 performance criteria.
August 2, 2013
Spain: 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Spanish economy accumulated large imbalances during the long boom that ended with the global financial crisis. Unemployment soared, the fiscal position deteriorated sharply, and funding conditions tightened for both the public and private sectors. Key imbalances are correcting rapidly. Growth has been negative in the last seven quarters, unemployment has reached high levels, and financing conditions remain tight for small firms. The reform process has accelerated and deepened. Decisive reforms in the labor, financial, and fiscal sectors, in line with past IMF staff recommendations, is helping stabilize the economy.
August 2, 2013
Myanmar: 2013 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that recent economic developments in Myanmar have been positive. Growth is estimated to have risen to 6½ percent in FY2012/13 (April–May), driven by gas production, construction and services while inflation climbed to 4.7 percent in March 2013. The external current account deficit is estimated to have widened to about 4½ percent of GDP in FY2012/13, but to have been largely financed by foreign direct investment. The economic outlook remains favorable. Growth is expected to accelerate slightly in FY2013/14, led by rising gas production and investment, including in the transport and telecommunications sectors, and a recovery in agriculture.
August 2, 2013
Czech Republic: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the fiscal strength of the economy of the Czech Republic. Fiscal policy in the Czech Republic has shown a procyclical bias temporarily interrupted during the crisis years. The large stimulus implemented has been more than compensated by a frontloaded adjustment. However, the fiscal framework could be improved to increase transparency, predictability, and credibility of policy and minimize the procyclical bias. This could be achieved by incorporating, among other things, a simple and credible rule with a medium-term fiscal anchor set in structural terms.
August 2, 2013
Czech Republic: 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Czech economy, despite its strong fundamentals, is in the midst of a prolonged recession because of the euro area slump and weak domestic demand. A further slowdown in the euro area would exacerbate the situation, creating the risk of lower growth in the long run. Short-term macroeconomic policies should therefore be geared toward supporting the economy and not creating additional drag. Boosting potential growth in the medium to long term will require implementation of additional structural reforms. Given the large fiscal consolidation achieved so far, further consolidation efforts should be avoided until the economic recovery gains strength.
July 31, 2013
The Republic of Yemen: 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This staff report on the Republic of Yemen’s 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights economic development and policies. The macroeconomic situation stabilized in 2012, but the recovery remains fragile. After contracting by more than 12 percent in 2011, real GDP is estimated to have grown by 2.4 percent in 2012, reflecting an easing of supply bottlenecks, and utilization of part of idle capacity. On the other hand, oil production declined further, due to continued sabotage of the pipelines. Average inflation declined to 9.9 percent from 19.5 percent in 2011, reflecting the appreciation of the rial to its pre-crisis level, the moderation of international food prices, and the easing of supply shortages.
July 31, 2013
Greece: Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, and Request for Waivers of Applicability and Modification of Performance Criterion—Staff Report; Staff Statement; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Greece
Description: This paper discusses Greece’s Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, and Request for Waivers of Applicability and Modification of Performance Criterion. The economy is rebalancing, but it continues to do so through recession, not productivity-enhancing structural reform. Domestic demand continues to fall albeit at a moderating pace, and import compression has resulted in a further shrinking of the current account deficit. The large output gap and high unemployment rate are exerting downward pressure on wages, and the competitiveness gap in unit labor cost terms has narrowed further. Product prices are also easing. Sentiment indicators have improved, but the political crisis has had a dampening effect.
July 30, 2013
Republic of Armenia: Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement and the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement
Description: This paper discusses the Republic of Armenia’s Sixth reviews under the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement, and the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. The Central Bank of Armenia has kept the policy rate at 8 percent since 2011, and has narrowed the corridor around the policy rate from 600 to 300 basis points while strengthening fine-tuning operations. Interbank interest rates have become less volatile. External adjustment slowed considerably in 2012, and external vulnerabilities persist. The current account deficit improved by just 0.3 percentage points of GDP as exports, and remittances grew at a healthy pace, as did imports.