Country Reports
2013
August 9, 2013
Kingdom of the Netherlands-Aruba: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes sustaining potential growth in Aruba. As in the other Caribbean countries, there are growing concerns in Aruba about the slowdown in economic growth over the past two decades and the consequent tepid outlook for potential growth. Tackling such concerns requires identifying the underlying factors. This paper presents an overview of Aruba’s economic growth performance since 1990, analyzes factors behind the slowdown, and discusses how potential growth can be sustained. It suggests that Aruba should aim to finance its renewable energy and other future growth initiatives sustainably.
August 9, 2013
Kingdom of the Netherlands: Aruba: 2013 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report, Informational Annex, Press Release
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic output in Aruba remains 12 percent below its pre-crisis level, with recovery slower than others in the Caribbean region. The non-oil current account (CA) balance, which mostly reflects developments in the tourism sector, has improved since mid-2000 reaching a balanced position in 2012. The overall CA balance, however, after being in surplus for years, showed volatilities in recent years reflecting oil-sector developments. In 2012, it recorded a surplus of 5 percent of GDP. In 2013, real output is projected to grow by 1¼ percent. Robust tourism growth and some pickup in consumption from projected deflation will support the subdued near-term recovery.
August 7, 2013
Iceland: 2013 Article IV Consultations and Third Post-Program Monitoring Discussions
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Iceland’s economy is on a path to recovery, but legacy vulnerabilities are weighing on growth. GDP growth—which reached 2.9 percent in 2011—slowed to 1.6 percent in 2012 amid private sector deleveraging and weak external demand. Unemployment has continued to decline however, standing at 5.1 percent in May, down from a peak of 9.2 percent in September 2010. Inflation has come down to 3.3 percent in June from a peak of 18.6 in January 2009, but remains above the central bank’s target of 2½ percent. The outlook is for modest growth, declining inflation, and improving fiscal and external position.
August 7, 2013
Iceland: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyses the impact of a potential rebalancing of Icelandic residents’ investment portfolios as capital controls are lifted. It applies optimal portfolio theory to calculate the potential rebalancing toward foreign assets, and then makes an estimate of the cumulative impact on the balance of payments and international reserves. Conclusions for the authorities’ capital account liberalization strategy are drawn. This paper also measures the potential budgetary savings from improving the efficiency of public spending in health and education in Iceland. A Data Envelopment Analysis is used to estimate an efficiency frontier by comparing across Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries the transformation rates of public spending into valuable social outcomes.
August 6, 2013
Germany: 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Germany’s economic rebound of 2010–11 gave way to weakening momentum during the course of 2012. Although exports to non-European trading partners began to recover by mid-2012, in line with improved prospects in the United States and emerging economies, exports to the rest of the euro area continued to decline as the recession in the region continued. Consumption grew robustly as German unemployment remained near post-reunification lows. The outlook for the remainder of 2013 and 2014 is heavily dependent on a gradual recovery in the rest of the euro area and a sustained reduction in uncertainty.
August 5, 2013
Japan: 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that on the back of new policy framework, growth in Japan accelerated sharply in early 2013. First quarter GDP growth rose to 4.1 percent (seasonally adjusted annual rate) after two quarters of stagnation. Rising equity values stimulated consumption, and exports rebounded supported by strong regional demand and a weaker yen. Inflation expectations have started to increase, and actual inflation recorded positive growth in June. The near-term outlook has improved considerably, buoyed by stimulus. In 2014, growth is expected to moderate to 1.2 percent.
August 5, 2013
France: 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that in a context of weakening economic conditions in Europe and sizeable fiscal consolidation and domestic policy uncertainty, the French economy flat lined in 2012. However, recent improvements in economic indicators support the expectation of a gradual recovery in the second half of 2013. Credit conditions remain supportive, and private demand is unencumbered by balance sheet repair issues and thus more apt to respond favorably to an improvement in confidence. The economy is projected to contract by 0.2 percent in 2013 and to grow by 0.8 percent in 2014.
August 5, 2013
France: Selected Issues Paper
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines external developments and competitiveness in France. Over the past decade, the current account has deteriorated from a surplus of 1.2 percent of GDP in 2002 to a deficit of about 2.3 percent in 2012, as France lost ground in goods trade and services recorded just a slight increase in global market shares. The slight improvement of the trade deficit seen in 2012 may suggest a change in trend, although it is still too early to determine. Past deterioration in export performance points to competitiveness weaknesses, rooted in significant rigidities in labor and product markets.
August 5, 2013
Japan: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines implications for long-term bond yields in case of Japan. The analysis finds that so far, upward pressure on interest rates from high public debt has been offset by domestic factors, including a stable investor base with a preference for safe assets. As these effects could decline with population aging, yields could rise unless reforms are implemented to stimulate growth and reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio. In such a scenario, long-term Japanese government bond rates would remain relatively low and stable. The paper also analyzes to what extent rising health care spending poses a fiscal risk to Japan’s economy.
August 2, 2013
Spain: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes household savings ratio in Spain. The household savings ratio has fallen to its lowest historical rate in 2012, as households cut back savings to support consumption in response to negative income shocks. Household savings fell across all households, but the declines were likely more material among lower income and highly indebted groups. Declining household income and savings slowed deleveraging and put household balance sheets under pressure. Looking ahead, households may need to restrain consumption further to free resources for repaying debt. Household savings rates will likely stay below historical levels for some time then slowly increase.