Country Reports
2013
October 17, 2013
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper reviews the extent to which growth in Ethiopia has translated into higher living standards. A key feature of the economic strategy has been an explicit commitment to poverty reduction and structural transformation. This is underpinned by the vision of a “developmental state,” whereby a proactive public sector leads the development process and the private sector is oriented to support the development goals. The paper also identifies key bottlenecks hindering further broadening of growth across key sectors to reduce poverty, and highlights the main areas for policy action.
October 4, 2013
Romania: Request for a Stand-By Arrangement
Description: This paper discusses Romania’s Request for a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Since the 2008 global financial crisis, Romania has made significant progress in reducing macroeconomic imbalances and rebuilding fiscal and financial buffers. However, Romania remains vulnerable to external shocks, in particular uncertainties in the euro area as well as global volatility in capital flows to emerging markets. The new SBA would provide a valuable policy anchor and support Romania’s comprehensive economic program for 2013–2015 to maintain sound macroeconomic policies and financial sector stability and continue structural reforms to enhance growth prospects. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for a new SBA.
October 4, 2013
Ireland: Eleventh Review Under the Extended Arrangement
Description: This paper discusses Ireland’s Eleventh Review Under the Extended Arrangement. Policy implementation remains on track but recent weak GDP data point to a slower growth recovery. Real GDP declined in the first quarter, reflecting a fall in exports and weak domestic demand. Nonetheless, fiscal results remain on track and sovereign and bank bond yields have risen relatively modestly in response to declining global risk appetite. A range of other economic indicators are more encouraging, suggesting lower but still positive growth in 2013, though uncertainty remains. Growth projections for 2014 are also lowered. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for completion of the eleventh review.
October 3, 2013
Trinidad and Tobago: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Trinidad and Tobago is poised for a modest recovery in 2013, after disappointing growth in 2012 that was owing to largely supply constraints, including maintenance operations in the energy sector and an industrial dispute in the nonenergy sector. The IMF staff projects real GDP growth of some 1.5 percent in 2013, with risks slightly to the downside, should development spending be under-executed. Headline inflation rose to 9.3 percent in 2012. Executive Directors welcomed the signs of economic recovery, fueled by growth of the nonenergy sector.
October 2, 2013
Jamaica: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria
Description: This paper discusses Jamaica’s First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. All end-June quantitative conditions and all structural benchmarks were met. The 2013/14 budget is in line with the program. Economic developments remain in line with program assumptions and the macroeconomic outlook and financing scenario remain broadly unchanged from the program approval. The authorities have committed to press ahead with the next round of reforms. Based on the performance to date and the authorities’ updated policy intentions, the IMF staff recommends completion of the first review under the EFF.
October 1, 2013
South Africa: 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that South Africa’s economy has underperformed other emerging markets and commodity exporters, exacerbating South Africa’s already-high levels of unemployment (25 percent) and inequality, and contributing to rising social tensions. At the same time, weak trading partner growth, coupled with declining competitiveness and countercyclical fiscal policy, have led to rising fiscal and current account deficits and made South Africa vulnerable to a prolonged reversal of capital inflows. The outlook is for continued sluggish growth and elevated current account deficits. Growth is projected at 2 percent in 2013 as weak consumption growth and lackluster private investment offset robust public investment and higher export growth.
September 27, 2013
Morocco: Second Review under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line
Description: This paper highlights Morocco’s Second Review Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line. The IMF report analyzes that the 2012 fiscal outcome entailed a significant slippage from the authorities’ target and exposed vulnerabilities in the budget framework. Core inflation has remained low while the unemployment rate remained about 9 percent. After worsening in 2012, the current account has been improving in 2013, while reserves have stabilized at about four months of imports. Liquidity conditions have remained tight, and credit growth has continued to decelerate, driven by both supply and demand factors.
September 27, 2013
Italy: Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: This Financial System Stability Assessment report provides a review of .Italian financial system. The announcement of outright monetary transactions (OMT) and steps toward a banking union have blunted the impact of the sovereign debt crisis on banks, and the expansion of European Central Bank (ECB) liquidity facilities has temporarily shielded Italian banks from wholesale funding volatility. Stress tests suggest that the system as a whole is able to withstand both the already weak baseline macro outlook and the phase-in of Basel III requirements.
September 27, 2013
Italy: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes
Description: This Report on Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) for Italy summarizes the findings and recommendations of the fiscal assessment of Italy’s economic policies. It highlights that while raising the bar for banking supervision, the Core Principles must be capable of application to a wide range of jurisdictions. The new methodology reinforces the concept of proportionality, both in terms of the expectations on supervisors and in terms of the standards that supervisors impose on banks. It recommends that a group-focused supervisory approach for the nationally significant insurers and sophisticated offsite monitoring together with ad hoc inspections for smaller entities is required.
September 27, 2013
Italy: 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights Italy’s assesses measures undertaken to revive economic growth. Italy is vulnerable to a renewal of euro area tension and risks from domestic policy slippages, stalling of structural reforms, and banking distress that could undermine confidence. The government has taken steps to liberalize services, open the energy sector, and improve the labor market, but more is needed to boost productivity and raise Italy’s low employment rate. The IMF report shows that banks have improved their capital positions, but continue to suffer from weak asset quality and profitability.