Country Reports
2013
December 3, 2013
Papua New Guinea: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Papua New Guinea has achieved strong economic growth over the past decade, benefiting from high commodity prices, mineral investment inflows, sound macroeconomic policies, and financial sector stability. The current account deficit is expected to narrow sharply in 2013 as imports and income outflows decline with the winding down of liquefied natural gas project construction. The Bank of Papua New Guinea has kept the policy interest rate unchanged since early 2013 given weakening nonmineral sector demand, but has issued central bank bills and raised cash reserve requirements to absorb excess liquidity in the banking system.
December 2, 2013
Kuwait: 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that high oil prices and increased production have enabled the government in Kuwait to continue to record high fiscal and external surpluses and build strong buffers. Overall real non-oil GDP growth is projected to increase modestly to 3 percent in 2013, driven by an increase in domestic consumption and pick-up in public investment. A slight reduction in oil production would bring down total real GDP growth below 1 percent. The overall average consumer price inflation is projected at 3 percent in 2013. The economic outlook is expected to improve further in 2014 and over the medium term.
December 2, 2013
Kuwait: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper estimates the optimal allocation of government current spending, precautionary saving, and investment for Kuwait under uncertainty. The results show that in the face of high oil income volatility and the expected decline in oil prices, projected current spending exceeds the optimal amount over the medium term (2013–2018). However, there is room to increase investment spending, which should contribute to the growth of the tradable sector, as the projected investment rate is lower than the optimal investment rate of 20 percent of government income.
December 2, 2013
Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste: 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that the non-oil economy of the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste has grown rapidly in recent years with growth averaging close to 12 percent from 2008 to 2011, allowing the average per capita income to steadily increase. The growth was driven by a rapid increase in government spending, which boosted the public administration and construction sectors. So far, the contributions from agriculture and manufacturing have been modest. Despite falling from the peak of more than 15 percent in 2011, the inflation rate is still in double digits. Executive Directors have welcomed the revised budgetary framework that anticipates a stabilization of government expenditures and revenue diversification.
November 26, 2013
Mexico: 2013 Review Under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement
Description: This paper discusses Mexico’ Review Under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) Arrangement. Significant progress has been made in advancing far-reaching structural reforms, signaling Mexico’s commitment to address deep-rooted impediments to growth. The economy slowed down in early 2013, but is expected to recover starting in the second half of the year. Mexico’s financial markets have functioned reasonably well through the recent global volatility, although with some currency depreciation and a rise in long-term government bond yields. The IMF Staff recommends completion of the review under the FCL arrangement for Mexico, subject to the Board’s assessment in the context of the 2013 Article IV consultation.
November 26, 2013
Mexico: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that over the past year, Mexico has maintained macroeconomic policy continuity, while pursuing an ambitious agenda of growth-enhancing reforms. Reforms have already been approved to upgrade education, make labor markets more flexible, and foster competition in telecommunications. In 2013, the economy has begun to operate well below capacity, with real GDP growth expected to slow to 1.2 percent (down from 3.6 percent in 2012). The banking system—which accounts for about 60 percent of financial system assets—has remained resilient.
November 26, 2013
Mexico: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes reforms to Mexico’s fiscal framework. Mexico’s resilient economic performance would be consolidated by increasing fiscal policy buffers and preparing for challenges associated with long-term budget pressures. In the short term, reducing public debt levels can create space to implement countercyclical fiscal policies and reduce exposure to high financing and hedging costs, which would protect Mexico’s credit rating at times of distress. The paper highlights that recent fiscal reform is designed with these policy objectives in mind, to build on the strengths of the previous fiscal framework.
November 22, 2013
Sierra Leone: 2013 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Sierra Leone has made significant progress in macroeconomic stabilization over the last five years. Real GDP growth averaged some 7 percent, driven by output expansion in agriculture, mining, and services; as well as the scaling-up of infrastructure investment. Nonetheless, important impediments to broad-based growth remain, including large infrastructure gaps, insufficient energy supply, and limited access to safe water and sanitation. Medium-term prospects are positive. Growth is projected to remain robust, mainly driven by iron ore production and continued high public investment; while inflation is expected to decline further as monetary and fiscal policies remain prudent.
November 22, 2013
Spain: Financial Sector Reform—Fourth Progress Report
Description: This paper discusses findings of Fourth Progress Report on Spain’s financial sector reform. Implementation of Spain’s financial sector program remains on track. Essentially all measures specified in the program have now been implemented, as envisaged under its front-loaded timetable. Capital-augmentation measures arising from last year’s stress test are now complete, SAREB has almost concluded its organizational development and is now accelerating the liquidation of its assets, and key reforms of Spain’s financial sector framework have been adopted or put in train. Despite recent improvements, important risks remain, including those associated with the ongoing macroeconomic adjustment.
November 20, 2013
Mexico: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes—Data Module
Description: This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) Data Module provides an assessment of Mexico’s macroeconomic statistics against the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) complemented by an assessment of data quality based on the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) 2012. Mexico’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have solid institutional, conceptual and methodological, and source data foundations achieved through implementation of international best practices. Implementation of good practice extends to the serviceability and dissemination aspects of both indexes. It is also observed that CPI and PPI both benefit from the application of sound practices in concepts and methods.