Country Reports
2024
June 28, 2024
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
Description: The CEMAC’s economy lost some momentum in 2023 and the external position deteriorated somewhat, while inflation cooled but remained high. Updated statistics revealed a much more deteriorated fiscal situation than originally estimated. The near-term outlook is one of continued recovery, with growth projected at 3.6 percent in 2024, reflecting still-high oil prices and a strong rebound in oil output. In the medium term, however, sustained growth projected at the regional level masks divergences across the region, with weaker economic performance in countries with no program or off-track Fund-supported programs. In the absence of decisive corrective actions, and with current policies unchanged, fiscal and external imbalances are set to widen in the medium term, threatening to reverse reserve accumulation and add to financial stability risks.
June 28, 2024
Seychelles: 2024 Article IV Consultation, Second Reviews Under the Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Seychelles
Description: They Seychellois economy continues to recover from the effects of the pandemic but at a slowing pace. While tourist arrivals were about 91 percent of prepandemic highs and activity in the IT, construction, and fishing sectors was robust, real GDP growth slowed to about 3.2 percent in 2023. This is due partly to a complex disaster (flooding and an industrial explosion) in December and associated negative impacts on manufacturing. Inflation has been negative since May but appears to have troughed in December. The fiscal stance in 2023 was tighter than projected and, as a result, the ratio of public debt to GDP is moving more quickly back to pre-pandemic lows. The external position improved slightly relative to the previous year.
June 28, 2024
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy
Description: Since 2016, public development action in Mauritania by 2030 has been framed by the Strategy for Accelerated Growth and Shared Prosperity (SCAPP). This reference framework for strategic planning for the country's economic, social and environmental development also incorporates the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (SDGs). In addition, the SCAPP has been the subject of a framework law that makes it possible to establish it as a reference framework for development interventions carried out by the Government with the support of its technical and financial partners (TFPs).
June 28, 2024
Barbados: Third Reviews Under the Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: The authorities’ implementation of the home-grown Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT 2022) plan and their ambitious climate policy agenda remain strong, supported by the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). In 2023, the economy completed its recovery from the pandemic, growing by an estimated 4.4 percent, driven by a rebound in tourism and related sectors. Inflation moderated gradually with the easing of global commodity prices but remained somewhat elevated due to adverse weather conditions that affected some domestic crops, and stronger demand for tourism-related services. The external position also strengthened, with the current account deficit narrowing to 9 percent of GDP and ample international reserves (US$1.5 billion at end-2023) continuing to support the exchange rate peg. The authorities remain committed to maintaining fiscal consolidation and debt sustainability, while advancing structural reforms to achieve more inclusive and sustainable growth and increase resilience to climate change.
June 28, 2024
Ukraine: Fourth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modifications of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
Description: Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to have a devastating economic and social impact. Skillful policymaking supported by external financing has helped maintain macroeconomic and financial stability despite challenging circumstances, and the authorities continue to advance important structural reforms. Better-than-expected growth outturns in 2023 and in 2024Q1 demonstrate the resilience of the economy. Approval by the United States of the US$61 billion financial and military support package, and by the European Council of the €50 billion Ukraine Facility and its underlying Ukraine Plan are positive developments following a challenging period of liquidity strains in early 2024. However, headwinds include the rising risks of a prolonged war and the economic impact of the attacks on energy infrastructure and mobilization.
June 28, 2024
Central African Republic: Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Continuous Performance Criterion, Augmentation of Access, and Financing Assurance Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Central African Republic
Description: Despite a challenging environment, the authorities have broadly shown strong commitment to the reforms proposed in the program. Challenges to fuel and electricity supply have undermined economic growth, revenue mobilization, and government liquidity. Further, volatile spending weakened budget credibility. Public debt increased rapidly last year driven by regional issuances, and the authorities have ambitious borrowing plans for 2024. Thus, boosting revenue collection—particularly from fuel imports—and strengthening spending management will be key to preserving macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability.
June 28, 2024
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Second Reviews Under the Arrangements Under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria and a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and First Review Under the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: Economic performance in 2023 has been broadly positive, with decreasing inflation and a narrowing current account deficit, although real GDP growth slowed somewhat. Still, challenges related to infrastructure, governance, vulnerability to economic shocks, and limited economic diversification constrain Mauritania’s economic development. While the political situation appears stable, security risks persist, especially in the Sahel region. Additionally, frequent and severe climate-related disasters create large adaptation needs, though opportunities for boosting clean energy exist.
June 27, 2024
Dominica: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Dominica
Description: Dominica is a small island developing state that is vulnerable to external shocks. Key economic drivers (agriculture and ecotourism) have limited downstream integration and are vulnerable to disaster shocks. During the past decade, consecutive natural disasters (NDs) followed by the pandemic and cost of living shocks have taken its toll on Dominica’s economy. Policy responses have eroded essential fiscal buffers, despite large Citizenship by Investment (CBI) revenues which have supported reconstruction, infrastructure development, and climate adaptation. The country remains exposed to shocks, while tight fiscal space constrains development initiatives. The ongoing economic expansion provides an opportunity to rebuild essential buffers and reorient policies towards increasing prospects for more sustained and resilient growth.
June 27, 2024
Panama: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: GDP growth in 2023 was strong (7.3 percent), exceeding expectations for the third year in a row since the downturn in 2020. Unemployment is near pre-crisis levels while inflation has moderated. Government bond spreads increased in the second half of 2023 as markets became concerned that failure to meet the fiscal targets would lead to a loss of investment grade status. However, the overall fiscal deficit dropped from 4.0 percent of GDP in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023, and the Social and Fiscal Responsibility Law (SFRL) target was met. Following a Supreme Court ruling that the new contract with copper mine Minera was unconstitutional, the government ordered the closing of the mine. Banks are, on average, well capitalized and liquid, and stay broadly resilient in an adverse scenario.