Country Reports
2013
December 30, 2013
Republic of Kosovo: Fifth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement
Description: This paper discusses Kosovo’s Fifth Review Under the Stand-by Arrangement. All end-August 2013 and continuous performance criteria were met, as a renewed shortfall in customs collection was over-compensated by underexecution of spending. A prior action on issuing a government decision that specifies the nonallocation of €88 million across expenditure categories was also met. The applicable structural benchmarks were met on substance. Missed by small margins were the indicative targets on the nonaccumulation of domestic payments arrears by the central and general governments. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for completion of the fifth review under the Stand-By Arrangement.
December 27, 2013
The Kyrgyz Republic: Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria
Description: This paper focuses on the Kyrgyz Republic’s Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Growth was strong over the first nine months of 2013, and inflation has declined steadily. Intensive public investment programs and the decline in gold prices are putting temporary pressures on the current account. The medium-term outlook is broadly favorable, despite the slowdown in the region. System-wide financial stability indicators have been broadly sound. The IMF staff recommends completion of the fifth review and approval of the request for modification of the performance criteria for end-December 2013.
Notes: Also Available in Russian
December 27, 2013
Jamaica: Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria
Description: This paper discusses Jamaica’s Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Program performance is on track despite the difficult economic environment. All end-September quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks were met. The macroeconomic outlook and financing scenario remain broadly in line with earlier projections. The authorities are pressing ahead with the next round of reforms, including strengthening the fiscal policy framework and reforming the securities dealers sector. Based on the performance to date and the authorities’ updated policy intentions and commitments, IMF staff recommends completion of the second review under the EFF.
December 27, 2013
Nicaragua: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that during the past two years, macroeconomic developments in Nicaragua have been generally favorable. Real GDP grew by an average of 5¼ percent during 2011–2012, and the annual average inflation was 7¼ percent during the same period. Looking ahead, the macroeconomic outlook also remains broadly positive. Real GDP is expected to grow by 4¼ percent in 2013 and then stabilize at its potential level of 4 percent over the medium-term. Inflation is projected to remain at about 7 percent supported by the crawling-peg exchange rate system that has helped anchor inflation expectations.
December 23, 2013
Cyprus: Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria
Description: This paper discusses Cyprus’ Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. The program is on track. Fiscal performance continued to exceed targets comfortably, and the 2014 budget is more ambitious than envisaged at program approval. All structural benchmarks were met, albeit with a modest delay in one case. Significant progress has been made in restructuring and recapitalizing the banking sector, including with foreign participation in the share capital of one domestic bank. Fiscal structural reforms are proceeding, but strong resolve is needed to kick start the privatization process.
December 20, 2013
Republic of Poland: Technical Note on Impaired Loans
Description: This Technical Note analyzes impaired loans in Poland. Asset quality has moved up the Polish supervisor’s agenda to address persistent impaired loans and cyclical deterioration in credit quality. Although the deterioration has been mainly observed in the quality of consumer loan portfolio, the foreign exchange mortgage loan portfolio also presents vulnerabilities that lie in exposure to foreign exchange risk. Tax disincentives, interest income accrual practices, underdeveloped securitization markets, and impediments in out-of-court restructurings impede rapid progress in cleaning up bank balance sheets. A recent loosening of underwriting standards for retail loans could contribute to rising inflows into impaired loans.
December 20, 2013
Republic of Fiji: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that growth in the Fijian economy increased to 2¼ percent in 2012, supported by income tax cuts, low interest rates, and the one-time payouts under the Fiji National Provident Fund (FNPF) reform, which offset the negative impact of the severe floods and Cyclone Evan on the agriculture and tourist sectors. Inflation declined as imported commodity and food prices moderated. With a lower-than-budgeted deficit of 1 percent of GDP, Fiji’s debt-to-GDP ratio continued to decline in 2012. The latest available indicators suggest accelerating growth momentum in the first half of 2013 boosted by increases in disposable income, bank borrowing, and rising investment.
December 20, 2013
Lao People's Democratic Republic: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that over the past year, the economy of the Lao People’s Democratic Republic has been overheating from expansionary macroeconomic policies. The fiscal deficit is estimated to have widened to 6½ percent of GDP, mainly fro'm a doubling of public sector employee compensation and higher capital spending. Government liquidity is tight, and wage and other arrears of 2–3 percent of GDP have emerged. Monetary policy has been accommodative, and credit growth remains vigorous. Although medium-term growth prospects remain favorable, based on robust natural resource exports and post-WTO expansion in the nonresource sectors, heightened vulnerabilities have subjected the outlook to considerable uncertainty.
December 20, 2013
Union of the Comoros: Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Waiver of a Performance Criterion
Description: This paper discusses the Union of the Comoros’ Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Request for Waiver of a Performance Criterion. Performance under the ECF-supported program through end-June was broadly satisfactory. All but one of the performance criteria and all indicative targets for end-June were met. Most structural benchmarks were also met. The authorities are requesting a waiver for the nonobservance of the performance criterion on net credit to the government at end-June 2013. The IMF staff supports this request and recommends completion of the sixth and final review under the ECF arrangement.
December 20, 2013
Turkey: Selected Issues Paper
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the capital flows in Turkey. The empirical analysis in this paper uses exchange market pressure index to identify the determinants of capital flows to Turkey. It is observed that exchange market pressures in Turkey seem to a degree, larger than in other emerging economies, and to be linked to risk factors, both global and country specific. In particular, there seems to be a stronger link to the interest rates in advanced economies, which given forthcoming tightening of the U.S. monetary policy, is likely to intensify pressures on lira.