Country Reports
2014
May 5, 2014
Mauritius: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that with subdued international prices, inflationary pressures in Mauritius declined in 2013, despite the public sector wage increases. The unemployment rate was unchanged compared with 2012 at 8 percent. Credit to private sector growth remained robust. On the external front, the current account deficit widened to almost 10 percent of GDP in 2013. The reserve cover of imports of goods and services stayed constant at 4½ months with the Bank of Mauritius accumulating additional net international reserves. The structural primary deficit was broadly unchanged relative to 2011.
May 1, 2014
Ukraine: Request for A Stand-By Arrangement
Description: This paper discusses Ukraine’s Request for a Stand-by Arrangement. Ukraine’s economy had been in recession since mid-2012. Inconsistent macroeconomic policies pursued in 2012–2013 aggravated deep-seated vulnerabilities and eventually generated a balance-of-payment crisis. Key objectives of the authorities’ program are to restore macroeconomic stability, strengthen economic governance and transparency, and lay the foundation for robust and balanced economic growth. To achieve these objectives, the government will implement immediate measures aimed at securing stability, combined with deeper reforms to achieve and sustain external sustainability, ensure financial stability, restore sound public finances, rationalize the energy sector, and improve the business environment.
April 29, 2014
Haiti: Seventh Review Under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Modification of Performance Criteria
Description: This Seventh Review Under the Extended Credit Facility of Haiti focuses on economic activity that continued to advance in FY2013, despite negative weather events early in the fiscal year. The fiscal deficit increased to 6.7 percent of GDP in FY2013 owing to a gasoline price freeze that dented revenues and on transfers to the electricity sector. The evolution of monetary aggregates reflected government policies and some dedollarization, while the banking system remained well capitalized and profitable. The macroeconomic outlook and the conditions for policy implementation are subject to a number of downside risks.
April 29, 2014
Republic of San Marino: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation on the Republic of San Marino highlights global crisis and tense relations with Italy, which triggered a 30 percent GDP contraction since 2008 and a sea change in San Marino’s off-shore banking model. High liquidity in the system allowed banks to withstand the shock to deposits. Cassa di Risparmio della Repubblica di San Marino, the largest bank, has required 13 percent of GDP in public support. The deep recession and bank recapitalization costs are weighing heavily on public finances.
April 22, 2014
Nigeria: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights Nigeria’s poverty and income inequality that remain high and social and governance indicators that are below averages for sub-Saharan Africa. Growth is expected to remain strong, driven by agriculture, trade, and services. Inflation should continue to decline, in line with a tight monetary policy, and a lowering trend in food prices from higher rice and wheat production. Transparency and governance in the oil sector should be enhanced, including by strengthening the regulatory framework through the passage of a sound Petroleum Industry Bill featuring stringent enforcement clauses.
April 21, 2014
Portugal: Eleventh Review Under the Extended Arrangement, and Request for Extension of the Arrangement and Waivers of Applicability of End-March Performance Criteria
Description: This Eleventh Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Extension of the Arrangement focuses on Portugal’s macroeconomic framework and fiscal policy. Sovereign bond yields have declined sharply, buoyed by the improved economic outlook and increased investor appetite for higher yielding southern European debt. The recent upturn in domestic demand remains susceptible to changes in market sentiment and any renewed policy uncertainty. The operational performance of state-owned enterprises continues to improve, while the privatization program advances.
April 17, 2014
Chad: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation and Assessment of Performance Under the Staff-Monitored Program
Description: The staff report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation on Chad focuses on economic background and policy. The country continues to enjoy its longest period of domestic political stability since independence. Macroeconomic performance continued to be stable in 2013, with some deceleration in economic growth and inflation. Recently revised balance-of-payments data show that Chad has been running much larger external current account deficits. Chad’s ability to tackle its developmental needs and poverty reduction objectives is seriously hampered by the projected oil revenue trajectory.
Notes: Also Available in French
April 17, 2014
Republic of Korea: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Republic of Korea has experienced impressive growth since the 1970s, enabling it to escape the middle-income trap. Policies should aim to tackle the weakness of domestic demand and counter forthcoming headwinds to potential growth. Korea is reaping the benefits of prudent macroeconomic management and financial moderation. The economy faces significant medium-term growth and inclusiveness challenges. Slow household income growth hinders stabilization in household debt and weighs on domestic demand, while services sector productivity is very low.
April 17, 2014
Malaysia: Financial Sector Assessment Program Banking System Spillovers-Technical Note
Description: This Technical Note focuses on banking system spillovers of Malaysia. The note examines the presence of foreign banks and the potential for problems in other jurisdictions to spillover to Malaysia and the overseas operations of Malaysian banks, which make their performance and solvency more exposed to economic and political developments abroad. A key facet of the current crisis is serious problems in advanced economy banks, suggesting a role for spillovers from their claims on Malaysia. Notwithstanding the Asian Financial Crisis, foreign claims of BIS-reporting banks on Malaysia have generally been on an increasing trend since the early 1990s.
April 15, 2014
Malaysia: Financial Sector Assessment Program Housing Market-Technical Note
Description: This Technical Note on the housing market in Malaysia focuses on price developments in the Malaysian housing market and of its sustainability. Malaysia maintains a one-fourth time series for the housing prices index, tracing back to the 1990s. The second half of 2010 marks a clear change in the evolution of housing prices. The break-down of the structural relation between housing prices and the macroeconomic variables used in the econometric model is suggestive of an important shift in the dynamics of housing prices, and should be further investigated.