Country Reports
2014
June 19, 2014
Niger: Second and Third Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and for Extension of the Program Period and Arrangement, Rephasing of Disbursements, and Modification of Performance Criteria
Description: This paper discusses Niger’s Second and Third Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and for Extension of the Program Period and Arrangement. Fiscal performance was broadly in line with program targets. The medium-term outlook appears favorable, with robust growth benefiting from important natural resource sector investments. However, the outlook is vulnerable to high domestic and external risks, including potential spillovers from the security situation in the region and climatic shocks. The IMF staff recommends the completion of the second and third reviews under the ECF.
Notes: Also available in French
June 18, 2014
Ireland: First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions
Description: This paper focuses on Ireland’s First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions. The Irish economy is beginning its recovery from crisis but determined efforts remain vital to sustain strong growth while reducing vulnerabilities. Following a smooth exit from the EU–IMF supported program, strong job creation and other indicators suggest economic recovery is broadening. Together with other European periphery countries, Ireland currently enjoys favorable financial market conditions, and the government has resumed bond auctions at historically low yields. Unemployment is still high even after a significant decline in recent years, and public and private debt burdens remain a source of risk to the strength and durability of the recovery.
June 17, 2014
Mali: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper—Progress Report
Description: This paper reviews Mali’s 2012–2017 Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy Paper. Mali’s GDP was CFAF 1,741.89 billion in 2012; real growth was ?1.2 percent, that is, excluding inflation (2.7 percent in 2011). The decline of 3.9 points in growth between 2011 and 2012 was finally stemmed, despite the major shocks that Mali had to face in 2012. The dual security and institutional shock had a negative impact on the entire economy, and more particularly on certain subsectors such as construction and public works, the hotel industry, and commerce. The GDP growth rate was ?1.2 percent in 2012, compared with 2.7 percent in 2011.
Notes: Also available in French
June 16, 2014
Central African Republic: Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility and Cancellation of the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement
Description: This paper focuses on Central African Republic’s (CAR) Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Cancellation of the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. The transitional government in CAR is facing daunting challenges. Improved security, donor support, and normalizing salary payments will be crucial to start a recovery in 2014. The macroeconomic outlook is subject to uncertainty and risks. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for assistance under the RCF in view of their currently limited capacity to implement policies of an upper credit tranche-quality economic program, the large and urgent balance-of-payments needs, and the catalytic effect of IMF support on other external assistance.
Notes: Also available in French
June 11, 2014
Ukraine: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation and First Post-Program Monitoring
Description: This paper discusses Ukraine’s 2013 Article IV Consultation and First Post-Program Monitoring. The Ukrainian economy has been in recession since mid-2012, and the outlook remains challenging. In January–September 2013, GDP contracted by 1¼ percent year-over-year, reflecting lower demand for Ukrainian exports and falling investments. Consumer prices stayed flat, held down by decreasing food prices and tight monetary policy. The fiscal stance loosened in 2012–2013, contributing to the buildup of vulnerabilities. Ukraine remains current on all its payments to the IMF, and the authorities have reaffirmed their commitment to repay all outstanding IMF credit.
June 11, 2014
Ukraine: Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2010 Stand-By Arrangement
Description: This paper discusses Ukraine’s Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2010 Stand-By Arrangement. For the most part, the 2010 program was appropriately designed given the ambitious agenda it had set out to accomplish. The macroeconomic strategy and program design correctly addressed the most important vulnerabilities—Ukraine’s large fiscal and quasi-fiscal deficits, its lack of resilience to external shocks, and lingering weaknesses in the financial sector. Although the program’s long duration was appropriate given its focus on medium-term issues, hindsight would suggest that a shorter program would have been preferable given the country’s past program performance.
June 11, 2014
Republic of Azerbaijan: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that recent economic developments in Azerbaijan have been favorable. In 2013, a stabilization of oil output and strong non-oil growth at nearly 10 percent helped lift overall GDP growth to 5.8 percent. Inflation remained low, averaging 2.4 percent, restrained by soft food prices and a stable exchange rate. The impact of regional market turbulence in early 2014 has been limited, with few signs of lower manat demand or capital flight. Economic prospects over the near and medium term are positive, if underpinned by fiscal consolidation and supported by reforms to spur non-oil private sector activity.
June 11, 2014
Republic of Azerbaijan: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper uses a bank-level panel dataset to investigate the determinants of bank interest spreads in Azerbaijan over 2002–2013. The dealership model of Ho and Saunders is applied, supplemented by market structure and macroeconomic environment variables, to assess the extent to which high spreads of banks in Azerbaijan can be related to bank-specific variables or to a low degree of competition, controlling for macroeconomic factors. It is found that interest spreads are affected by operation cost efficiency, credit risk, liquidity risk, bank size, bank diversification, banking sector competition, policy rate, and reserve requirement.
June 11, 2014
Côte D’Ivoire: Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility and Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria and Extension of the Current Arrangement
Description: This paper discusses Côte d’Ivoire’s Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria (PC) and Extension of the Current Arrangement. Program performance has been strong. All end-December PCs and all but one indicative target were met. On the downside, fiscal discipline and structural reform momentum could be adversely affected during the run-up to the October 2015 presidential elections. The IMF staff supports the completion of the fifth review under the ECF and the authorities’ requests for the modifications of PCs and an extension of the current arrangement to end-December 2014.
June 10, 2014
Botswana: Technical Assistance Report-Introducing a Medium-Term Expenditure Framework
Description: This Technical Assistance Report focuses on Botswana’s Medium-term Expenditure Framework (MTEF). The Government of Botswana has committed to introduce the MTEF by 2016. The MTEF will provide a more explicit linkage between National Development Plan priorities and budget allocations by adopting a medium-term budgeting horizon. An MTEF model based on a binding nominal expenditure ceiling covering 100 percent of government expenditure is appropriate. To support the commitment to the resource allocations approved under the MTEF, a number of prioritization, control, and accountability arrangements need to be put in place.