Country Reports
2014
July 1, 2014
Bhutan: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper describes the current tax system in Bhutan and suggests options for tax policy reform. Though significant hydropower revenues are expected in the medium term as major projects come on-stream, reforms to the existing tax system in the interim will generate fiscal room and prevent recourse to domestic debt to finance development needs. Key reforms include reducing tax exemptions in the near term and introduction of value-added tax in the medium term. The paper also analyzes the adequacy of international reserves in Bhutan using a customized risk-weighted metric. The results indicate that Bhutan’s reserve levels are ample.
July 1, 2014
Bhutan: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the GDP growth in Bhutan has slowed from about 10 percent in FY2011 (July 1–June 30) to 5 percent in FY2013. Slower growth reflects policy efforts to contain overheating pressures in the form of restrictions on credit for construction and vehicle. Inflation has remained elevated, tracking closely that of India (Bhutan’s main trading partner). Social development indicators have improved steadily, and Bhutan is on track or has achieved most of its Millennium Development Goals. Growth is projected to recover to 6½ percent in FY2014, driven mainly by a pick-up in hydropower-related construction activities and domestic services.
July 1, 2014
Russian Federation: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Russian Federation’s growth slowdown that began in 2011, reflecting structural constraints, continued in 2013 despite accommodative policies. Real GDP growth slowed to 1.3 percent owing to a contraction in investment while consumption remained robust owing to strong real wage growth and an unsecured consumer credit boom. The general government balance moved from a modest surplus in 2012 to a deficit of slightly more than 1 percent of GDP in 2013. The IMF staff projects real GDP growth at 0.2 percent in 2014 with considerable downside risks.
Notes: Full text also available in Russian
June 26, 2014
Sierra Leone: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Staff Report; and Press Release
Description: This paper discusses Sierra Leone’s First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria (PC), and Financing Assurances Review. Program performance has been strong. All PCs were met with comfortable margins, and all indicative targets (ITs) were met, except for the one on poverty-related spending that was missed owing to enhanced monitoring of domestic investment execution and delayed budget support. Economic growth momentum continued in 2013, with output expanding by 20 percent. The IMF staff recommends completion of the first review under the ECF arrangement.
June 26, 2014
Republic of Poland: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Poland’s economy is steadily recovering from the 2012–2013 slowdown on the back of Poland’s very strong fundamentals and policies. Real GDP growth moderated to 1.6 percent in 2013 as the slowdown in core euro area countries had knock-on effects on consumer and investor confidence. However, a steady recovery is now under way. The outlook is for a continuing recovery, but external risks remain firmly on the downside. Growth is expected to reach 3.3 percent in 2014 but strong trade and financial linkages with core euro area countries make it vulnerable to growth shocks.
June 26, 2014
Republic of Poland: Selected Issues Paper
Description: This Selected Issues paper considers the case of Poland to analyze global financial spillovers to emerging market (EM) sovereign bond markets. Foreign holdings of Polish government bonds have increased substantially over the last decade. Although foreign participation in local-currency sovereign bond markets provides an additional source of financing and reduces sovereign yields, it has also given rise to concerns about increased sensitivity to shifts in market sentiment. The analysis in this paper suggests that foreign participation plays an important role in transmitting global financial shocks to local-currency sovereign bond markets by increasing yield volatility and, beyond a certain threshold, amplifying these spillovers.
June 25, 2014
Colombia: Review Under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement
Description: This paper discusses Colombia’s Review Under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) Arrangement. Growth is projected to remain robust in 2014 and beyond, although risks are tilted to the downside. Real GDP is projected to grow at around potential in 2014 and over the medium term, with inflation remaining within the target range of 2–4 percent. However, Colombia remains vulnerable to external risks, including a sharp decline in oil prices and a surge in global financial market volatility. The IMF staff assesses that Colombia continues to meet the qualification criteria for access to FCL resources, and recommends completion of the review under the FCL arrangement for Colombia.
June 23, 2014
Colombia: Selected Issues Paper
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes spillover risks for Colombia. It highlights that external shocks could spill over to the Colombian economy through the country’s important and growing trade and financial linkages with the rest of the world. Colombia would be most exposed to a decline in oil prices, which could have a sizable adverse impact on the balance of payments, the fiscal accounts and growth. Growth shocks in key trading partners could also have a negative impact, particularly in the United States, which is Colombia’s main trading partner. Colombia’s fiscal rule and adjustment in the context of resource wealth is also analyzed.
June 23, 2014
Solomon Islands: Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria—Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Solomon Islands
Description: This paper discusses Solomon Islands’ Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria (PC). Program performance under the ECF arrangement has been broadly satisfactory. Reserve buffers have been rebuilt and are at a comfortable level, well above the average of other small states. All PCs for end-December, the indicative targets (ITs) for March, and the continuous PCs were met with considerable margins, except for the IT on government-funded recurrent spending on health and education, which was narrowly missed. Based on Solomon Islands’ program performance, the IMF staff recommends completion of the third review under the ECF-supported program.
June 20, 2014
Jamaica: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria
Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that a gradual economic recovery appears to be under way in Jamaica. Growth is estimated at 0.9 percent in FY2013/14, as mining, agriculture, and tourism picked up. Recorded unemployment remains high, but fell from 16 percent to 13.5 percent (in seasonally adjusted terms) from April 2013 to January 2014. Inflation declined to 7.6 percent (year over year) at end-April, as the impact of the ongoing depreciation of the exchange rate was countered by weak domestic demand. Growth is projected to reach almost 1½ percent in 2014–2015, as the negative fiscal impulse comes to an end.