Country Reports

July 16, 2014

People’s Republic of China–Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Stress Testing the Banking Sector-Technical Note

Description: This Technical Note on Stress Testing the Banking Supervision was prepared in the context of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) for the People’s Republic of China–Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). Bank liquidity tests focus on sudden, sizable withdrawals of funding and the sufficiency of existing assets to withstand those shocks under stressed conditions. The stress test results confirm a high degree of resilience of the sector. This reflects the strength of the banks at the starting position, which reduces their fundamental vulnerability to shocks. Banks in HKSAR hold very high levels of capital, are very profitable, and have a low level of asset impairments amid stable funding profiles. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is encouraged to continue its integration of risk-based supervision in the development of stress test scenarios for macroprudential policy and surveillance. Banking supervisors routinely conduct stress tests and, from time to time, modify relevant assumptions in order to support thematic reviews of identified vulnerabilities against emerging risks.

July 16, 2014

People’s Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Oversight and Supervision of Financial Market Infrastructures-Technical Note

Description: This Technical Note on Oversight and Supervision of Financial Market Infrastructures has been prepared in the context of the Financial Sector Assessment Program for the People’s Republic of China–Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). Nine financial market infrastructures (FMIs) operate in HKSAR; the effectiveness of their supervision and oversight is critical in maintaining financial stability. In order to support their objective of consolidating Hong Kong’s position as an international financial center, the Hong Kong authorities have fostered the development of sophisticated and multicurrency FMIs. The risks associated with domestic and overseas linkages appear to be adequately managed. Extensive domestic and overseas system linkages have been implemented making HKSAR a regional settlement hub. The legal framework should be amended to explicitly prohibit a domestic clearing house from operating in HKSAR without being recognized as such. The respective legal framework and policy mandate determines the actions of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission as the two regulatory, oversight and supervision authorities for FMIs in HKSAR.

July 16, 2014

People’s Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision-Detailed Assessment of Observance

Description: This Basel Core Principles (BCP) for Effective Banking Supervision Detailed Assessment Report has been prepared in the context of the Financial Sector Assessment Program for the People’s Republic of China–Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) supervises a major international financial center which was affected, though not significantly so, by the financial crisis. The HKMA is maintaining its commitment to the international regulatory reform agenda and is an early adopter of many standards. Supervisory practices, standards, and approaches are well integrated, risk based and of very high quality. There is one area in relation to the overarching legislative framework and powers which warrants further attention. The HKMA enjoys clear de facto but not de jure operational independence. There are two important cross border dimensions for Hong Kong as an international financial center. One is related to HKSAR’s significant position as a host supervisor. The second is the increasing importance of Mainland China in the current portfolios and prospects of the locally incorporated institutions, and indeed in the choice of HKSAR as a platform for overseas institutions to establish relationships with Mainland China.

July 15, 2014

Sudan: Staff-Monitored Program

Description: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context: Sudan is a fragile state mired in a heavy debt burden, international sanctions, and volatile domestic and regional political environments. These problems, together with limited revenue mobilization, are constraining Sudan’s growth prospects and poverty reduction efforts. The economic situation worsened following the secession of South Sudan in 2011, resulting in the buildup of large economic imbalances. The authorities have embarked on a stabilization program and are expecting that a return of peace in South Sudan will ensure continuation of oil flows, which are crucial for sustaining the government renewed adjustment process resumed last September. Focus of the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP): In the attached Letter of Intent, dated March 7, 2014, the authorities requested a new SMP covering the period January– December, 2014. The objective of the SMP is to restore macroeconomic stability, strengthen social safety nets, and develop the required reforms to refocus the economy on its non- resource sector and lay the groundwork for sustainable economic growth. Risks to the SMP: Risks are mainly tilted to the downside. The social unrest that followed the announcement of the policy measures in September 2013 has abated, but the situation remains fragile. Security conditions remain volatile in several parts of the country, and the current standoff in South Sudan may hinder the flow of oil to Port Sudan. Furthermore, the forthcoming presidential elections in 2015 is already fueling political uncertainty, and complicating the economic policy-making process. Policy recommendations: The main recommendations from the 2013 Article IV consultation were: (i) a fiscal adjustment in the context of the 2014 budget framed in a medium-term strategy, including a gradual phasing-out of fuel subsidies, and a strengthening of social safety nets; (ii) a tighter monetary stance to contain inflation and lessen exchange rate pressures; (iii) further exchange rate flexibility to improve external competitiveness; and (iv) improvement of the business environment to boost private sector- led growth. Debt relief prospects: Relief is predicated on reaching out to creditors, normalizing relations with international financial institutions, and establishing a track record of cooperation with the IMF on policies and payments. Arrears to the Fund: Sudan has been in arrears to the Fund since July 1984. As of end- February 2014, those arrears amounted to SDR 981.5 million.

July 15, 2014

Botswana: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Description: KEY ISSUES Setting: The seeds of good governance and prudent macroeconomic and natural resources management planted by the Botswana authorities paid off with an impressive increase in the GDP per capita during the last three decades. However, as in many other small middle-income countries (SMICs) in the region, trend growth has softened in recent years, reflecting the decline in the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth which calls for policies to reduce structural bottlenecks in the economy. Current conditions and outlook: Botswana’s economy remains broadly internally and externally balanced and the authorities’ near-term macroeconomic policy mix is appropriate. Output growth is expected to slowdown in 2014 reflecting partly weaknesses in the non-mineral sector, while inflation is expected to remain within the Bank of Botswana’s (BoB) medium-term objective range of 3-6 percent. Fiscal policy: Staff supports the FY2014/15 budget, which reins in unproductive current spending, while protecting growth-promoting capital spending. Achieving medium-term fiscal consolidation objectives adopted in the budget, would require articulating concrete measures to reduce the wage bill relative to GDP and broaden the revenue base. Financial sector development: Botswana’s banking system is well-capitalized and profitable with relatively low nonperforming loans. Although from a low base, credit growth to households continues to expand at a high rate, which poses potential vulnerabilities for the financial sector. Thus, staff recommends that macro prudential measures be considered to temper the rate of growth of household borrowing. In this context, staff welcomes the government’s emphasis on enhancing greater financial deepening and inclusion, while preserving the stability of the financial system. Reinvigorating growth: Returning to an era of strong growth and accelerating Botswana’s convergence to higher income levels would require policies to reinvigorate TFP growth. These include improving the quality of public spending, notably in public investment projects and education to ensure the transformation of diamond wealth into sustainable assets. The authorities’ efforts to improve the country’s competitiveness, including through reducing the regulatory burden on firms, is also welcomed. Past advice: There is broad agreement between the Fund and the authorities on the macroeconomic policy stance and structural reform policy priorities. Consistent with staff’s advice, the FY 2014/15 budget outlined a framework to reduce the burden of loss- making state-owned enterprises on fiscal resources and propel them toward commercial viability. Furthermore, the budget includes medium-term projections of government accounts, as recommended by staff during past consultations. However, progress towards reducing the wage bill relative to GDP remains modest.

July 14, 2014

Euro Area Policies: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation With Member Countries

Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the euro area recovery is taking hold. Real output has expanded for four consecutive quarters, and financial market sentiment has improved markedly. Complementary policy actions have supported demand, boosted investor confidence, and eased financial conditions. At the national level, governments have made further progress repairing sovereign and bank balance sheets and implementing structure reforms to restore competitiveness. At the area-wide level, the ECB has taken a wider range of measures to support demand and address fragmentation. Over the medium term, there is a risk of stagnation, which could result from persistently depressed domestic demand owing to deleveraging, insufficient policy action, and stalled structural reforms.

July 14, 2014

Grenada: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Extended Credit Facility Arrangement

Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Grenada’s economy continues to face significant headwinds after a decade of natural disasters and economic shocks coalesced into a deep economic crisis by 2011–2012. Economic activity declined by more than 8 percent of GDP from peak to trough (2008–2012) as tourism and construction collapsed. After almost four years of decline, real GDP grew by 1.5 percent in 2013. To address the fiscal crisis, the authorities have initiated fiscal adjustment as part of their 2014 budget, and have subsequently approved a large package of revenue measures needed for the targeted consolidation.

July 14, 2014

Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper assesses the youth unemployment problem in advanced European economies, especially the euro area. Youth unemployment rates increased sharply in the euro area after the crisis. Much of these increases can be explained by output dynamics and the greater sensitivity of youth unemployment to economic activity compared with adult unemployment. Labor market institutions also play an important role, especially the tax wedge, minimum wages, and spending on active labor market policies. The paper highlights that policies to address youth unemployment should be comprehensive and country specific, focusing on reviving growth and implementing structural reforms.

July 11, 2014

Kyrgyz Republic: Kyrgyz Republic—Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Description: This paper discusses Kyrgyz Republic’s Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility. Following exceptionally strong performance in 2013, growth is moderating to a more sustainable pace. The program is broadly on track, with all end-December 2013 quantitative performance criteria and all but one indicative targets (IT) met for end-December 2013. Although three March 2014 ITs were missed, since then there has been progress in rebuilding reserves and enhancing tax collections. The two structural benchmarks for end-December were met. The IMF staff supports the completion of the sixth and final review.

Notes: Also available in Russian

July 11, 2014

Zimbabwe: 2014 Article IV Consultation—Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Zimbabwe

Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic rebound in Zimbabwe experienced since the end of hyperinflation in 2009 has now ended. After averaging 10 percent over 2009–2012, growth fell to an estimated 3.3 percent in 2013, reflecting tight liquidity conditions, election-year uncertainty, weak demand for key exports, competitiveness pressures, and the impact of adverse weather conditions. Inflation continued its downward trend from 2.9 percent (year over year) at end-2012 to ?0.3 percent in April 2014. The medium-term outlook, under the baseline scenario, is for growth to average some 4 percent, as large mining sector investments reach full capacity.