Country Reports

July 21, 2014

Germany: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Description: KEY ISSUES Context: ? Germany fundamentals are sound: balance sheets are generally healthy, unemployment is at a historic low, and the fiscal position is strong. ? While a recovery is underway, medium-term growth prospects are subdued and the current account surplus remains high. The economy also faces a still weak international environment, lingering uncertainty (including about future energy costs), and fast approaching adverse demographic changes. ? Germany could do more to increase its growth, thus strengthening its role as an engine of euro area recovery. Policy recommendations: ? Germany has the fiscal space to finance an increase in needed public investment, particularly in the transport infrastructure. Unlike public consumption, this would durably raise German output and have measurable growth spillovers on the rest of the euro area. ? Further reforms in services sector regulation would boost competition and productivity. ? Greater clarity about the future energy sector regulatory framework would encourage private investment in the energy infrastructure and beyond and strengthen the outlook. ? Decisions on the future level of the minimum wage should take into account the employment effects in certain regions. ? Banks should keep strengthening their capital position ahead of the completion of the ECB’s Comprehensive Assessment. ? The macroprudential framework needs to be ready as monetary conditions are set to remain accommodative for a prolonged period.

July 21, 2014

Burkina Faso: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Waiver and Modification of Performance Criteria

Description: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Growth remains robust, despite slight downward revisions. Growth estimates for 2013 and projections for 2014 were revised to 6.6 and 6.8 percent, respectively, reflecting weather and weaker terms of trade. Inflation is around zero, partly due to subsidized food prices. The revised 2013 current account deficit rose to 7 percent of GDP, with a drawdown of imputed reserves. The 2013 fiscal deficit increased to 3.5 percent of GDP, reflecting weaker revenues and spending for subsidies, partly offset by higher grants. In line with 2011 Article IV recommendations, the authorities maintained a prudent fiscal stance, despite numerous shocks, and implemented structural reforms that have improved the resilience of agriculture, especially cotton. Social transfers have been bolstered to ensure the benefits of growth are better distributed. An updated external stability analysis shows that the exchange rate is broadly in line with fundamentals, and an updated joint debt sustainability analysis maintains a “moderate” risk of debt distress. Program performance has been satisfactory. The authorities are requesting a waiver for a non-observance in the performance criterion for net domestic financing at end-December 2013, with most other quantitative targets met and all structural benchmarks for end-January and end-March met. Program targets differ mainly due to higher budget support projections. The 3 percent fiscal deficit target for the medium term macroeconomic framework remains unchanged, although with a higher share of current spending. Policy discussions focused on composition and quality of spending, transfers to public enterprises, and natural resource revenues. The authorities recently submitted a supplemental budget that increases the share of current spending for a higher wage bill and more social and public enterprise transfers, but remains within program targets as a result of spending offsets and higher budget support. The authorities are proposing an audit of large public enterprises to estimate needs for the medium term, and inform reforms to reduce transfer needs. The National Assembly did not approve a new mining taxation code by end-2013 as expected, rather, the draft code was sent back to the authorities for further consideration of investors’ concerns.

Notes: Also available in French

July 21, 2014

Germany: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper on Germany focuses on current economic condition in the country. The build-up of Germany’s current account surplus over the last decade does not lend itself to a single-factor explanation, as both global and domestic factors, as well as policy changes led to increased savings and lower investment. All sectors contributed to the build-up of the surplus. Although fiscal consolidation and higher household savings played a role, the corporate sector experienced a more pronounced shift. This paper provides a retrospective on these developments and explores whether the factors contributing to the surplus are likely to be reversed going forward. Although there are common global drivers for the non-financial corporations shift to a net lender position, several German-specific factors played a role, notably the labor market reforms in the 2000s, the business tax reforms, and the globalization of German firms’ production chains. The households’ saving–investment gap widened in the early 2000s as the pension reforms and growing income inequality boosted households’ savings and residential investment declined by the end of the reunification construction boom.

July 18, 2014

Nepal: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Description: KEY ISSUES Context: Successful elections for a new Constituent Assembly and formation of a new government have stabilized the political situation. Macroeconomic situation and outlook: Nepal’s macroeconomic situation remains broadly favorable. Growth is projected to recover in 2013/14 owing to good monsoons, robust growth in services, and increased public spending. Inflation is moderating, in line with developments in India. High remittance inflows are supporting a strong external position, as well as high reserve money growth. Risks to the outlook are slightly tilted to the downside, involving slower-than-expected growth in countries hosting Nepali workers and domestic financial sector risks. Medium term prospects: While remittances are expected to continue to support the external position, the outlook for growth depends on improving the environment for private investment. This requires a decisive boost in public capital spending, and structural reforms in key areas. Financial sector: Despite progress, significant vulnerabilities remain. The recent assessment under the FSAP, Nepal’s first, raised concerns about asset quality and interconnectedness, as well as financial sector infrastructure—including the legal framework—and supervision and crisis preparedness. At the same time, a largely unsupervised cooperatives sector is growing rapidly. Key policy recommendations: Monetary policy should aim at controlling the volatility and level of excess reserves in the financial system, implying a modest tightening of monetary conditions. The exchange rate peg to the Indian rupee provides a useful nominal anchor for the economy, and the real exchange rate is broadly in line with fundamentals. Capital spending needs to be boosted to provide key infrastructure, and reforms implemented to support private investment, which will help generate sustained economic growth and employment opportunities. In the financial sector, further reforms to bolster regulation and supervision, and improve financial infrastructure are needed to reduce risk and increase access to finance.

July 17, 2014

Cameroon: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Description: KEY ISSUES Context. Cameroon’s macroeconomic outlook and risks have deteriorated slightly since the Article IV consultation in 2013. Economic activity has remained strong and inflation subdued, but the fiscal position has worsened; public debt has been rising at a less sustainable pace; government deposits have dwindled; and payment delays have continued. The anticipated growth path may not suffice to reach upper-middle-income country status by 2035. Focus of the consultation and risks. The overarching policy issue remains unchanged: how to set Cameroon on a higher growth path, while mitigating low but growing risks to macroeconomic stability. Spillovers from regional insecurity have become the main exogenous risk; endogenous risks stem from rising contingent liabilities and credit concentration. Past policy advice remains relevant. Key policy recommendations: • Strengthen cash management and expenditure controls to prevent a further accumulation of payment deferrals. • Close the financing gap in 2014, and adopt a downward path for the non-oil primary deficit to rebuild fiscal space and preserve macroeconomic stability. • Improve non-oil revenue by broadening the tax base and streamlining tax exemptions. • Reprioritize public expenditure by reducing fuel subsidies gradually; provide targeted compensation measures for the most vulnerable. • Increase the selectivity of investment projects and adopt a rigorous screening of the financing terms to ensure debt sustainability. • Pursue the resolution of three small distressed banks and support the strengthening of regional bank and microfinance supervision. • Promote higher and more inclusive growth through better targeted educational and social spending, a propitious business climate, and deeper regional integration.

Notes: Also available in French

July 17, 2014

Cameroon: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper examines infrastructure needs in Cameroon and makes policy recommendations to address them. In doing this, it provides advice to strengthen the public investment management framework, including public–private partnerships (PPP). The paper reviews the recent experience with public investment and PPPs and discusses policy options: increasing spending on public investment through traditional public procurement, while preserving fiscal sustainability; increasing the efficiency of public investment institutional processes; and increasing reliance on private-sector participation in infrastructure, while properly addressing their associated fiscal risks. Infrastructure indicators in Cameroon trail those of regional peers. Despite a slight improvement in the overall quality of infrastructure in 2013, infrastructure indicators remain low when compared to other sub-Saharan African countries, especially for roads, air transport, and electricity. A large body of theoretical and empirical work finds a positive relationship between public investment and growth. Physical and social infrastructure is widely considered to be a critical input for economic growth, productivity, and welfare.

Notes: Also available in French

July 16, 2014

People’s Republic of China–Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Insurance Core Principles-Detailed Assessment of Observance

Description: This Insurance Core Principles Detailed Assessment Report was prepared in the context of the Financial Sector Assessment Program for the People’s Republic of China–Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The report describes that the insurance penetration and density in HKSAR is among the top 10 in the world. Foreign-owned insurers are dominant in the HKSAR insurance sector, and account for about 72 percent of total assets as at end-2012. The long-term insurance industry is highly concentrated, while the market share of general insurance industry is more evenly distributed. All except one of the top-10 insurance groups are all foreign owned, with much larger consolidated operations compared to their operations in HKSAR. The Insurance Authority is responsible for regulating and supervising the insurance industry of the HKSAR. It is supported by the Office of the Commissioner of Insurance, a government department in the HKSAR. A self-regulatory system is used to supervise the conduct of business of intermediaries.

July 16, 2014

People’s Republic of China–Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Crisis Management and Bank Resolution Framework-Technical Note

Description: This Technical Note on Crisis Management and Bank Resolution Framework was prepared in the context of the Financial Sector Assessment Program for the People’s Republic of China–Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). Overall, the existing institutional framework facilitates communication and coordination domestically, as well as on a cross-border basis. Information sharing and coordination among domestic regulatory authorities and with the Government is undertaken through a variety of formal mechanisms, which are supported by sound legal bases for the exchange of confidential information. There are complementary structures in place for macro- and micro-prudential supervision that contribute to the prevention and identification of problems in banks. Market-wide or bank intrinsic risk issues will be identified by macroprudential surveillance and bank supervision in the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, or by other financial sector regulatory bodies. The deposit protection scheme is transparent, and trusted; however, steps should be taken to enhance efficiency of pay-outs and to ensure the scheme’s sustainability.

July 16, 2014

Albania: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria

Description: KEY ISSUES Background: On February 28, the Executive Board approved a three-year Extended Arrangement with access of SDR 295.42 million (492.4 percent of quota). A purchase of SDR 23.55 million (about EUR 26.4 million) was made in April 2014, and another will be made in the same amount upon completion of the first review. Recent Economic Developments: Growth in 2013 was the lowest in more than 15 years. The economy is showing tentative signs of recovery, but remains below potential. Successive monetary easing has not prevented credit contraction. The banking system remains stable, but asset quality is a concern. Program Performance and Risks: The program is on track. All end-March quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks were met, except for the structural benchmark on contracting an external auditor to conduct risk-based audits of arrears payments, which was not met but the government expects to complete in the coming weeks. An indicative target on accumulation of new arrears was not met although by a small margin and inflation has been slightly below the inner band prescribed under the inflation consultation clause. Program risks emanate from the complexity of reforms, particularly in electricity sector, and the need for sustained political commitment over the medium term. Policy Recommendations: No new fiscal measures will be needed in 2014, but the authorities should tackle emerging fiscal risks. Arrears clearance can be accelerated once external audits have progressed sufficiently. Addressing high NPLs will require continued efforts to clean bank and private sector balance sheets. Preparatory work related to the 2015 budget and structural reforms should start soon.

July 16, 2014

People’s Republic of China–Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Financial Sector Assessment Program-IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation-Detailed Assessment of Observance

Description: This Financial Sector Assessment Program report on People’s Republic of China–Hong Kong Special Administrative Region highlights that it has developed a sound framework for the regulation of securities markets, which exhibits a high level of implementation of the International Organization of Securities Commissions Principles. Both the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) are sophisticated regulators and have been able to leverage from domestic and international expertise to develop sound supervisory practices. Further, while traumatic, the Lehman minibond experience has led to material improvements in conduct supervision that have permeated both the SFC and the HKMA. Continuing efforts by the SFC to build up its capacity to identify and monitor emerging risks should increase the SFC’s ability to react in a timely manner to an evolving landscape, marked by an increased interconnection with the Mainland China, an active presence by international players and increased regional competition as an international finance center. It is important to consider translating the operational independence that the regulators have enjoyed into de-jure independence, through modifications in the current legal governance arrangements for both SFC and HKMA.