Country Reports
2014
July 31, 2014
Lebanon: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the various transmission channels of the Syrian crisis—though quantification is hampered by the lack of reliable data—with focus on the impact on fiscal performance and labor markets; it also takes stock of international donor efforts to date. The paper also provides overviews of main effects on Lebanon’s economy, the expenditure pressures associated with the refugee presence, the impact on poverty and inequality, and the added strains on labor markets. A section of the paper describes the response by the international community to help Lebanon cope with the Syrian crisis. Absent additional international support, the needs of both refugees and affected Lebanese communities will not be met. Sound government policies—including implementation of a concerted policy framework to deal with refugee issues and a commitment to fiscal discipline—will send credible signals to donors and help mobilize budget support. Tackling the unprecedented refugee crisis requires strong international support. There has been a large international humanitarian response, but much more is needed.
July 31, 2014
Japan: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: KEY ISSUES Abenomics is gaining traction, but progress across the three arrows has been uneven and medium-term risks remain substantial. Inflation has risen, a consumption tax increase has been implemented, and there are signs of a transition to private-led growth. However, structural reforms have progressed slowly and a medium-term fiscal plan beyond 2015 is still to be articulated. Uncertainty is therefore high whether the recovery and exit from deflation will become self sustained under current policies. More forceful growth reforms are needed to overcome structural headwinds to raising growth and ending deflation The next round of structural reforms should lift labor supply, reduce labor market duality, enhance risk capital provision, and accelerate agricultural and services sector deregulation. Corporate governance reforms already underway could help reduce firms’ preference for large cash holdings. A concrete medium-term fiscal reform plan is urgently needed. Given very high levels of public debt, implementation of the second consumption tax increase is critical to establish a track record of fiscal discipline. Adoption of a concrete medium-term fiscal consolidation plan beyond 2015 would build confidence in the sustainability of public finances and allow more flexibility to respond to downside risks. Plans to lower the corporate tax rate have growth benefits, but should proceed in combination with measures to offset revenue losses and be consistent with plans to restore fiscal sustainability. Monetary policy is appropriately accommodative. With inflation and inflation expectations increasing, no further easing is needed at this point. In case downside risks to the inflation outlook materialize, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) should act swiftly through further and/or longer- dated asset purchases. Communication should focus on achieving 2 percent inflation in a stable manner aided by a more transparent presentation of the BoJ’s forecast and underlying assumptions. The financial sector remains stable. Portfolio rebalancing by financial institutions and investors is desirable but also raises new risks, including from greater overseas engagement. In regional banks, limited growth opportunities and low net interest margins could further undermine core profitability and weaken capital buffers. Supervisors should continue to be proactive in monitoring these risks. Japan’s external position is assessed as broadly in balance—compared to moderately undervalued last year—because of structural changes in the external sector, including from the offshoring of production and sustained high energy imports, which have become more apparent. Launching all three arrows will create benefits for the region and the global economy. Spillovers via the trade channel and capital flows are expected to increase in coming years with uncertain net effects—higher exports and capital outflows—in the short term. As long as Japan continues to proceed with its reforms, incomes will rise and fiscal risks decline, which will be positive for the global economy.
July 30, 2014
People’s Republic of China: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: KEY ISSUES Context. After three decades of remarkable growth, the economy has been slowing. Much of the slowdown has been structural, reflecting the natural convergence process and waning dividends from past reforms; weak global growth has also contributed. Moreover, since the global financial crisis, growth has relied too much on investment and credit, which is not sustainable and has created rising vulnerabilities. Growth was 7.7 percent in 2013, and is expected to slow to around 7½ percent this year and decline further over the medium term. Focus. The pattern of growth since the global financial crisis is not sustainable and has resulted in rising vulnerabilities. The discussions focused on assessing the risks posed by the continued build-up of vulnerabilities; reforms to unleash new, sustainable engines of growth and reduce vulnerabilities; and how to best manage aggregate demand in this context, as growth is slowing yet risks are still rising. A key takeaway is that to secure a safer development path, accommodative policies need to be carefully unwound, accompanied by decisive implementation of the announced reform agenda to promote rebalancing. The result will be somewhat slower but safer growth in the near term, with the significant long-run benefit of securing more inclusive, environment-friendly, and sustainable growth. Risks. Credit and ‘shadow banking,’ local government finances, and the corporate sector— particularly real estate—are the key, and interlinked, areas of rising vulnerability. In the near term, the risk of a hard landing is still considered low as the government has the capacity to combat potential shocks. However, without a change in the pattern of growth, the hard-landing risk continues to rise and is assessed to be medium-likely over the medium term. Reform agenda. The authorities have announced a comprehensive and ambitious blueprint of reforms. Successful implementation should achieve the desired transformation of the economy, but will also be challenging. Demand management. Reining in credit growth, local government borrowing, and investment will address the risks, but also slow growth. Macro support should be calibrated to allow needed adjustments to take place, while preventing growth from slowing too much. Scenarios and spillovers. With faster adjustment and reform implementation, growth will be somewhat lower in the near term, with moderate spillovers for trading partners. However, in the medium term, income and consumption will both be higher—a result that is good for China and good for the global economy.
Notes: Also available in Chinese
July 28, 2014
United Kingdom: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: KEY ISSUES The economy has rebounded strongly and prospects are promising. Headwinds that previously held back the economy—relating notably to credit conditions and confidence—have eased. Nonetheless, sustaining strong growth will depend on a recovery in productivity growth and further demand rebalancing. The housing market brings risks of financial vulnerabilities. Sterling is moderately overvalued. The overall policy mix is appropriate, but policy settings might need to be adjusted quickly. Effective monetary conditions are very supportive, compensating for ongoing fiscal consolidation: ? Accommodative monetary policy is appropriate for now, given weak inflation pressures, but policy might need to be adjusted quickly if inflation takes off. Interest rate increases may also need to be considered if macroprudential tools are insufficient to deal with financial stability risks from the housing market. ? The authorities have recently implemented macroprudential measures, including limiting the share of high loan-to-income mortgages lenders can issue, establishing them as the primary defense against housing-related risks. They should stand ready to tighten these limits should current settings prove ineffective in reining in those risks. ? A lasting solution to house price pressures requires measures to address insufficient supply. Significant planning reforms have been undertaken, but political consensus is needed to make further progress in this area. ? High deficits and rising debt mean that fiscal consolidation needs to continue. The pace and composition of deficit reduction over the near term is appropriate. Further reducing the deficit over the medium term will be challenging; both revenue and expenditure measures should be considered, keeping in mind both equity and efficiency. ? The financial sector is more robust, the new financial architecture is settling in, and significant changes have been made to banks’ liquidity backstops to adapt to changing needs. Implementing macroprudential policy will be a test of the new architecture. Some problems—such as Too Important To Fail and bank misconduct— persist, and new challenges, such as from shadow banking, are emerging.
July 28, 2014
United Kingdom: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper focuses on the housing and business cycles in the United Kingdom. The UK housing cycle is highly volatile as a result of tight housing supply constraints and fluctuations in credit conditions. Housing supply-side constraints can be alleviated through changes to the planning system and tax reforms. The new National Planning Policy Framework introduced by the government is creating the incentives for local councils to increase available land for construction. There are early signs that this change in the planning system is contributing to the recovery in housing construction. Targeted macroprudential policies could address financial stability risks stemming from the housing market. Although mortgage credit as a share of gross domestic product has been declining in the current housing recovery, there are signs that there is a build-up of financial risks: loan-to-income ratios are increasing in London and among first time buyers.
July 25, 2014
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper on Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia investigates the macroeconomic impact of remittances on long-run external sustainability and growth. The paper presents stylized facts pertaining to the characteristics of remittances in Macedonia, highlighting their countercyclicality and importance in sustaining the purchasing power of domestic agents. The paper reviews to help set up a theoretical framework for assessing their macroeconomic impact, highlighting the possible risk of “Dutch disease” developments. The paper uses a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model to empirically investigate both hypotheses of countercyclicality and Dutch disease effects and puts forward a few policy options that may be explored to better harness remittances to support investment and long-term growth. The paper suggests that strong political engagement in support of diaspora projects is a key point. The mobilization of diaspora savings for private and public investment would maximize the long-term benefits of remittances.
July 25, 2014
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation and Third Post-Program Monitoring Discussions
Description: Growth accelerated to 3.1 percent in 2013, driven by a positive net exports contribution. The broad policy direction is supportive of near term macroeconomic stability. The key challenge is to transition from stability into an acceleration of medium term growth. Uncertainty with respect to EU accession remains, and weighs on longer term prospects.
July 25, 2014
Republic of Belarus: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper on Belarus examines wage setting, the role of wage targets, as well as wage dynamics, and the relationship with productivity. It finds that wage targets set by the government appear to be the key driver of rapid wage growth. Little regional and sectoral variation also suggests close adherence to official targets and a high degree of government control. Wage growth has outpaced productivity growth as the targets do not take productivity developments into account. In order to resolve these issues, in the short run, the authorities should aim for wage restraint to contain domestic demand and improve competitiveness. More generally, wage targets should be phased out to make way for more market-oriented wage-setting mechanisms. This should be complemented by deeper structural reform, dismantlement of the wider system of mandatory economic targets. wage targets should be eliminated as they restrict the flexibility to respond to market conditions. However, reform of wage setting will not be enough on its own and should be complemented by further structural measures to remove other distortions, such as direct and indirect subsidies to state-owned enterprises, which allow them to generate profit while at the same time maintaining excess employment.
Notes: Full text also available in Russian
July 25, 2014
Republic of Belarus: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: KEY ISSUES Context: Attempts to boost activity with policy stimulus, in lieu of much-needed structural reform, have failed to raise growth and contributed to large external imbalances. Adverse developments in the region further cloud the outlook. High financing needs and low buffers leave Belarus highly dependent on external financial support. The risk of disorderly adjustment remains high. Challenges: Mitigating immediate risks and facilitating external adjustment through a sharp change in macroeconomic policies. Advancing the transition to a market-based economy to raise sustainable growth. Policy recommendations: • Halt wage increases and reduce subsidized lending to slow demand growth; • Reduce foreign exchange interventions and tighten monetary policy to facilitate external adjustment; • Enhance market orientation of the economy through a rapid phase-out of price controls and mandatory targets and by privatization of state-owned enterprises.
Notes: Full text also available in Russian
July 24, 2014
United Republic of Tanzania: Request for a Three-Year Policy Support Instrument
Description: KEY ISSUES Economic background and outlook. Tanzania has enjoyed strong and stable growth, projected to remain at 7 percent next year and in the medium term. Inflation is at 6 percent, gradually converging to the authorities’ 5 percent medium-term objective. The external current account deficit remains among the largest in the region, at 14 percent of GDP this year. Fiscal revenue shortfalls and overruns in domestically-financed spending led the deficit to rise to 6.8 percent of GDP in 2012/13. Revenue shortfalls in 2013/14 compared to the budget approved by parliament have prompted the authorities to undertake expenditure cuts during the fiscal year in an effort to meet their 5 percent of GDP target. Based on the debt sustainability analysis, Tanzania remains at low risk of debt distress. Recent program engagement. Tanzania concluded its final review under a Standby Credit Facility (SCF) arrangement, together with its Article IV consultations, on April 25, 2014. The SCF expired on April 30, 2014. Key challenges. Over the next three years, policymakers will face several challenges, including the following: • Step up needed investment in infrastructure while protecting critical social spending. These objectives will need to be pursued following careful prioritization, to preserve government debt sustainability. • Prepare for natural gas. If recent discoveries of sizeable offshore natural gas deposits are confirmed as commercially viable, sizable fiscal revenues would need to be managed to bring benefits to all Tanzanians. Against this background, the authorities are requesting a three-year PSI to be in place by the start of FY2014/15. They see the PSI as an appropriate instrument to underpin the close policy dialogue with staff, provide a positive signal to donors and markets, and safeguard policy discipline. Staff supports the authorities’ request for a PSI.