Country Reports
2014
September 15, 2014
Austria: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper presents a comparison on public expenditure of Austria and other countries. In the past decade, Austria’s government expenditure growth has been very steady, thus avoiding the boom–bust pattern of some other European countries. However, expenditure levels are relatively high, and the difference with Germany has been widening. Compared with other countries, spending is particularly high for pensions, capital transfers and subsidies, including in the transport sector. According to economic classification, the composition of expenditure in the main categories has been more stable. Social benefits and transfers in kind, increasing by 0.7 percentage points between 2002 and 2012, have remained the highest component by far. Nevertheless, expenditure levels in Austria are relatively high, and the difference with Germany has been widening. A cross-country analysis of public spending by different type of categories shows several areas where spending stands out.
September 15, 2014
Tunisia: Fourth Review Under the Stand-by Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria
Description: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context. On June 7, 2013, the Executive Board approved a 24-month Stand-By Arrangement in an amount equivalent to 400 percent of quota (SDR 1.146 billion or about $1.75 billion). To date, SDR 573 million equivalent to $877 million has been disbursed. The pillars of the program are to: (i) achieve short-term macroeconomic stability; (ii) lay the foundation for stronger and more inclusive growth; and (iii) protect the most vulnerable. Background. Progress in the political transition is leading to increased donor support this year, including from regional partners. On the economic front, growth remains timid, headline inflation has increased, and rising external imbalances have continued to put pressure on foreign reserves. Program implementation has been satisfactory. All quantitative performance criteria have been met. On the structural reform agenda, the authorities have made up for some key delays in areas that include reforming public banks, setting up a household support program, and the tax administration modernization agenda. Program strategy. Prudent fiscal policy, tighter monetary policy, and greater exchange rate flexibility need to be sustained and intensified to contain high external and fiscal deficits, anchor inflationary expectations, and bolster the still lackluster investors’ confidence. Important steps have been taken to strengthen the financial system, notably with the design of public bank restructuring plans, but implementation will be key. Progress on structural reforms—in particular, to improve the business climate—is critical for improving the conditions for private sector-led and inclusive growth. Risks to program implementation are important. Main risks relate to regional and domestic security tensions, setbacks in the political transition, and weaker economic activity in major trading partners. The implementation of program policies will continue to be tested by a difficult social environment and opposition from vested interests. The completion of the fourth review will make SDR 143.25 million (about $220 million) available.
Notes: Also available in French
September 15, 2014
Austria: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: KEY ISSUES Context: Austria did not experience a severe boom-bust cycle and came through the crisis relatively well. The main impact was on the banking sector and public debt. With cyclical slack low and the recovery taking hold, this is the time to resolve crisis legacies and address long-standing structural issues. Outlook and risks: The recovery is taking hold, driven by a pick-up in exports. The most acute risks are mainly geopolitical and could in particular lead to financial spillovers. Financial sector policies: Bank restructuring should now be rapidly completed and bad asset disposal accelerated. Large internationally active banks should stand ready for further capital increases, and the EU banking union framework needs to be swiftly transposed at the national level. Public expenditure reforms: More decisive expenditure reforms in key areas such as pensions, health care, subsidies, and fiscal federalism would generate savings that could be used for both an accelerated debt reduction and lower labor taxation. Boosting potential output growth: Enhancing IT adaptation, improving the performance of the education system, facilitating access to financing for innovative start- ups, and reducing administrative barriers for new businesses would raise potential growth and labor productivity.
September 5, 2014
Angola: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: KEY ISSUES Context and outlook: Angola’s recent economic developments have been positive, but softening oil revenue and limited proven oil reserves highlight the need to contain emerging fiscal deficits, preserve policy buffers, and continue diversifying the economy. Focus of consultation: Discussions focused on mitigating the main risks to the macroeconomic framework and, inter alia, policies to return to structural fiscal surpluses over the medium term, and to support economic diversification and inclusive growth, the modernization of the monetary policy framework, and financial stability. Key policy recommendations: • Return to structural fiscal surpluses in line with the objective set forth in Angola’s Sovereign Wealth Fund, by mobilizing additional nonoil tax revenue, improving the efficiency of public investment, and reducing current spending, including by phasing out the costly and regressive fuel subsidies—while mitigating the impact on the poor through well-targeted social assistance. • Adopt an improved medium-term fiscal framework, focusing on the structural fiscal balance to limit the impact of the oil sector on the nonoil economy. • Develop a coherent asset-liability management framework, including a well-designed stabilization fund to shield the budget from oil revenue fluctuations. • Further improve public financial management systems to avoid, inter alia, a recurrence in the future of domestic payments arrears. • Continue improving the business climate to boost economic development, diversification, and competitiveness. • In transitioning over the medium-term toward an inflation targeting regime, enhance the central bank’s capacity to collect and analyze high-frequency economic data, and continue de-dollarizing the economy. • Further strengthen the financial system, by continuing to improve the transparency and accountability of banks, and enhancing bank supervision. • Manage public guarantees transparently and with a view to minimize fiscal costs, as envisaged in the recently-approved law on public guarantees.
Notes: Also available in Portuguese
September 5, 2014
Angola: Selected Issues Paper
Description: This Selected Issues paper describes external balance assessment in Angola. Angola’s external balance appears sustainable under current assumptions regarding the evolution of oil prices and output/exports, but the economy’s lack of diversification implies that it remains highly vulnerable to declines in the oil price and disruptions in oil production. Moreover, to the extent that the commercial viability of future oil production from the pre-salt deposits is still uncertain, risks to oil output are on the downside. Given the high pass-through of the nominal exchange rate to prices, improving competitiveness should focus on measures to improve the country’s business climate and infrastructure. The assessment of reserve adequacy shows that international reserves are currently adequate for precautionary purposes, but the high (although declining) level of dollarization in the financial system implies that a higher benchmark is appropriate; staff sees limited scope for drawing down reserves.
Notes: Also available in Portuguese
September 4, 2014
Republic of Congo: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: KEY ISSUES Economic context. Growth has been strong, inflation low, and fiscal buffers and international reserves adequate. However, poverty and unemployment remain high, despite large government spending financed from oil revenue. The business climate is among the most challenging and the private credit-to-GDP ratio among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Outlook and Risks. The economy is projected to expand by about 6 percent per annum between 2014 and 2019, as new oil fields come on stream and an ambitious public investment program is implemented to diversify the economy and make growth more inclusive. Oil production is expected to peak in 2017. The medium-term outlook for non-oil growth and poverty reduction hinges on progress addressing deep-seated structural weaknesses and fiscal adjustment. Risks to the outlook relate to oil price volatility and political instability. Policies. Macroeconomic policies should focus on meeting the economy’s social and development needs while mitigating risks to macroeconomic stability in the longer term. • The growth of government spending should be arrested and the 2014 budget should not be exceeded. Amid spending pressures related to the 2015 Africa Games and the 2016 presidential elections, new fiscal developments should be reflected in a supplementary budget in 2014 to enhance transparency. • In view of the limited remaining lifetime of oil reserves, a gradual fiscal consolidation should be targeted over the medium-term to safeguard fiscal and debt sustainability. Ongoing efforts to address implementation and absorptive capacity constraints need to be stepped up to maximize the benefits from public investments. • Consideration should be given to adopt the non-oil primary balance as the fiscal anchor. • The private sector’s supply response to public infrastructure spending should be maximized through implementation of reforms to improve the business climate, support private investment, and develop the financial sector. • The pilot project for cash transfers should be well-targeted and monitored to reduce poverty. • Compliance with reserves pooling requirements would insure the continued smooth operation of the BEAC and the exchange rate peg, which both continue to serve the Republic of Congo well.
Notes: Also available in French
September 4, 2014
Republic of Congo: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper proposes a strategy that could mitigate the adverse effect of fiscal consolidation on inequality and poverty in the Republic of Congo. The paper reviews income inequality and poverty trend and describes the redistributive role of fiscal policy in the Republic of Congo. It also discusses how fiscal consolidation can contribute to achieving distributional objectives through tax and expenditure policy reforms. The Republic of Congo has also started implementing social safety net programs. In order to address the challenges of high poverty and inequality, the Republic of Congo government is focusing on the development of a social safety net targeted at the poor and vulnerable groups. An impact analysis carried out by the World Bank suggests that the cash transfer program could have a significant impact on poverty and inequality in the Republic of Congo. Fiscal consolidation should be based on progressive tax and spending measures, in order to protect vulnerable households during adjustment.
Notes: Also available in French
September 3, 2014
Switzerland: Technical Note-Systemic Risk and Contagion Analysis
Description: This Technical Note on Systemic Risk and Contagion Analysis on Switzerland summarizes the systemic risk and contagion analysis undertaken for the Swiss financial system as part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) Update. Contagion risks arising from interbank exposures in Switzerland appear to be contained. This analysis shows only moderate effects, consistent with restrictions imposed by the Swiss ‘large exposure rules’ currently in place, and no material second round effects will materialize within the domestic interbank market. In terms of bank groups, domestic interbank exposure risks appear to be moderate for most banks, but a few small private banks and banks specialized in asset management appear to be somewhat vulnerable. The international contagion analysis suggests that global contagion risks among Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions and the large Swiss financial institutions appear to be currently contained. The systematic risk analysis shows that the relative contribution of domestically oriented banks to systemic risk is increasing. The bank-sovereign contagion analysis suggests that increases in banks capital buffers have contributed positively to limit contagion risks.
September 3, 2014
Switzerland: Detailed Assessment of Compliance-Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision
Description: This Detailed Assessment of Compliance on the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision on Switzerland discusses that significant portions of guidance and legislation related to qualitative risk management and control standards are not as detailed or comprehensive as in many other major countries and need to be updated and selectively strengthened. Supervisory risk assessments and guidance to auditors, as the extended supervisory arm of the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA), need to be further materially improved, beyond what is now envisioned. Additional skilled resources within FINMA are necessary to meet these goals and to conduct more on-site supervisory work. The responsibilities and objectives of FINMA that emphasize protecting creditors, investors and insured persons, as well as ensuring proper functioning of the financial market, should be clearly stated in legislation as pre-eminent. It is recommended to increase FINMA resources, especially for on-site inspection and risk expertise. Clarify and limit the cases in which the Board can become involved in supervisory decisions and improve conflict code.
September 3, 2014
Switzerland: Detailed Assessment of Implementation-IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation
Description: This Detailed Assessment of Implementation on the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation discusses that Switzerland has made progress in addressing the recommendations from the IOSCO assessment of the 2001–2002 Financial Sector Assessment Program. In supervision, the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) has further developed the risk-based supervisory system that it uses to determine the supervisory approach for each supervised entity. FINMA’s enforcement powers have recently been enhanced through the introduction of specific prohibitions on insider trading and market manipulation in the Federal Act on Stock Exchanges and Securities Trading. The Swiss authorities will face a significant challenge in coping with the upcoming securities regulatory overhaul. The planned framework will impact on practically all the areas of FINMA, as it is likely to require the assumption of new tasks in relation to the regulation and supervision of the issuance of unlisted securities, financial market infrastructures, independent asset managers, and conduct of business of banks and securities dealers.