Country Reports
2014
September 29, 2014
Guinea: Requests for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility and For Modification of Performance Criteria Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement
Description: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Guinea is suffering from an outbreak of Ebola, which has become a humanitarian crisis with a significant economic impact. Preliminary estimates suggest a negative impact on 2014 growth, which will be markedly lower. Government revenue is showing a substantial shortfall and the response to the Ebola outbreak entails additional critical spending needs. The exchange rate has started to depreciate. The authorities intend to adopt a tighter monetary policy to address the transitory balance of payments shock. Performance under the ECF-supported program has remained satisfactory. Preliminary data indicate that all performance criteria (PCs) under the program for end-June 2014 were met. There has also been further progress with structural reform. The authorities have requested additional IMF financial assistance to meet urgent fiscal and balance of payments needs not anticipated at the time of the recent program review. Such assistance cannot be provided in the form of an augmentation of access under the ECF arrangement at this time since a review associated with the most recent availability date has not yet been completed because of delays in program implementation associated with the 2013 parliamentary elections. The authorities have requested a disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) because the urgent balance of payments need is characterized by a financing gap that, if not addressed, would result in an immediate and severe economic disruption. Moreover, Guinea’s balance of payments difficulties are caused primarily by a sudden exogenous shock and not by a withdrawal of financial support by donors, and its balance of payments need is expected to be resolved within one year with no major policy adjustments being necessary. As such polices remain guided by the objectives of the ECF-supported program. Staff supports the authorities’ request for a disbursement under the RCF of 25 percent of quota (SDR 26.775 million). It also supports the authorities’ request for a modification of the end-September indicative targets and end-December 2014 PCs under the ECF arrangement, including program adjustors.
September 26, 2014
St. Kitts and Nevis: Ninth and Final Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring
Description: KEY ISSUES Stand-By Arrangement (SBA): The 36-month SBA for SDR 52.51 million (590 percent of quota) was approved on July 27, 2011. The seventh and eighth reviews were completed on March 19, 2014, together with the 2014 Article IV consultation. The authorities plan to continue to treat the arrangement as precautionary, which they began at the last review, and have repaid early a portion of the Fund’s outstanding credit (about 125 percent of quota). Context: Growth is expected to continue at a relatively rapid pace, following a stronger- than-expected recovery of nearly 4 percent in 2013, after a four-year contraction. This reflects rapid expansion in construction related to large Citizenship-by-Investment inflows, and a substantial increase in public sector investment, as well as support from the People Employment Program (PEP). The ECCB is investigating the reclassification of two public sector loans targeted for restructuring that may adversely impact banks’ financial soundness indicators. Program performance: Substantial strides have been made under the government’s home-grown economic program. Fiscal sustainability has improved, debt was substantially reduced and is on a downward path, the financial sector has remained stable, and key structural reforms have been implemented. The fiscal program is on track and all performance criteria were met with the exception of the continuous performance criterion on external arrears. The external arrears were minor and quickly repaid. Progress on the implementation of structural reforms is slow, with delay in one of the two benchmarks that were to be completed for this review, which is now a prior action. Review: The authorities continue to demonstrate their commitment to their home- grown program, and are on track to meet the 2014 fiscal targets. They also plan to press ahead with their structural reform agenda and complete reforms initiated under the program. With ongoing implementation of prudent fiscal management, the authorities are on track to reduce debt to 60 percent of GDP by 2020. In accordance with Fund policy, the Managing Director is recommending the initiation of Post-Program Monitoring (PPM).
September 25, 2014
Cabo Verde: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: KEY ISSUES Context: Over the last two decades, good governance and sound macroeconomic management have delivered remarkable economic and social progress to Cabo Verde. More recently, however, growth has slowed due to the prolonged downturn in Europe and a sharp deterioration in domestic confidence. A longer-term decline in the contribution of total factor productivity to growth may also have played a role. Financial stability risks have increased with the rise in non-performing loans and fall in bank profitability. The country remains vulnerable to external shocks, given its dependence on tourism, remittances, and concessional financing. Over the longer term, Cabo Verde’s challenge as a new middle-income country is to bolster productivity and diversify the sources of growth. Fiscal consolidation remains critical to safeguard macroeconomic and debt sustainability. Budgetary plans for 2014 and the medium term entail rising public debt, and are subject to downside risks to revenue. The authorities have already decided on a package of expenditure containment measures for 2014–17. However, given the high albeit sustainable level of public debt, further measures are needed to put public debt on a more robust downward path. Bolstering domestic revenue mobilization, increasing the efficiency of public investment, and managing existing infrastructure better are also central to sound public finances. International reserves have recovered, which provided room to ease monetary policy in support of the recovery. In the absence of imminent pressures on the balance of payments or on prices, and with private sector credit growth having stalled, the central bank has cut the policy rate. At the same time, given pressures on the banking system, continued vigilance regarding risks to financial stability is warranted. Structural reforms hold the key to bolstering competitiveness, creating jobs, and delivering inclusive growth. Increasing labor market efficiency and reducing skill mismatches would be particularly beneficial in this regard. Enhancing the efficiency of state-owned enterprises is also essential to improve delivery of infrastructure services. Data are adequate for surveillance purposes, though some key shortcomings remain. In particular, national accounts data are released with a long delay. This complicates the formulation of macroeconomic policies.
September 25, 2014
Jamaica: Fifth Review Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria
Description: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Recent data show a gradual economic recovery, with growth projected to reach just over 1 percent in 2014/15. Inflation has trended down to about 8 percent. The program is on track. Jamaica’s four-year, SDR 615.38 million (225 percent of quota) Extended Arrangement under the EFF was approved by the IMF Executive Board on May 1, 2013, and the first four reviews under the program were completed on schedule. All end- June 2014 quantitative performance criteria were met. The structural benchmarks for end- June were also met. Based on the strong performance to date and the authorities’ updated policy intentions and commitments, staff recommends completion of the fifth review under the extended arrangement. Focus of the review. Discussions centered on the preparations for the 2015/16 budget and financial sector reforms. The program has been updated, with steps to support the ambitious fiscal goals by strengthening tax administration, enhancing public financial management, and containing the civil service wage bill. Further steps have been articulated to move ahead the reform of the securities dealers sector and to strengthen the financial system more broadly. Progress in implementing the authorities’ program is steadily advancing with every successful review, but risks to the program remain relatively high. A delayed growth recovery could undermine social support for the reform efforts, financial sector vulnerabilities could become more pressing, or risks to external financing (including from PetroCaribe) could crystallize. A further challenge will be to keep the budget on track in the face of risks to revenues and the wage bill.
September 25, 2014
Guyana: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation
Description: The economy has experienced seven consecutive years of robust growth, buoyed by high commodity prices, foreign direct investment and expansion of private sector credit. As part of a strategy to sustain growth, reduce poverty and curtail dependence on imported oil, the authorities are pursuing the Amaila Falls Hydro-electric Project (AFHP), entailing investment of about 30 percent of GDP. However, steps by Parliament that delayed important approvals led the private sector partner to withdraw, which could delay the project while additional financing is sought. Meanwhile, public debt remains high—around 60 percent of GDP—limiting the room to finance inclusive growth.
September 24, 2014
Republic of Yemen: 2014 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Yemen
Description: KEY ISSUES Background: Yemen has made good progress since the 2011 crisis in advancing the political transition. However, the fledgling economic recovery remained insufficient to make a dent in unemployment and poverty, and fundamental reforms were postponed for fear of derailing the National Dialogue that was central to the political transition. The macroeconomic situation weakened further since early 2014, with increased sabotage of oil facilities leading to a decline in oil revenue and, therefore, a deterioration in the fiscal and external positions and severe fuel and electricity shortages. To address the difficult economic situation, the authorities have adopted a bold reform agenda to preserve macroeconomic stability and set the stage for boosting growth, employment creation, and poverty alleviation. They requested Fund support under an ECF arrangement with access of 150 percent of quota in consideration of the strength of the reforms and large financing needs. Outlook and Risks: Growth and other macroeconomic indicators are projected to improve steadily over the medium term as a result of the reform efforts and improvements in security. Institutional capacity constraints and/or deterioration in security or the political environment could delay reform implementation, in particular energy subsidy reforms. Such delays could destabilize the economy and necessitate even stronger adjustments later on. Policy Discussions: Discussions focused mainly on sequencing and speed of reforms in view of the large financing needs of the budget. Since the successful implementation of the RCF in 2012, there has been an ongoing dialogue with the authorities and a broad agreement on priority reforms, with differences of views on the timing and feasibility of the various reforms during the political transition. After the recent progress achieved in advancing political transition, and the increased economic challenges, the authorities have decided to move ahead with a strong reform program. The program aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to more manageable levels and reorient public spending from generalized subsidies to infrastructure investment and direct social transfers, with the objective to generate growth and employment and better benefit the poor. The authorities also agreed with staff on the need to improve fiscal performance by eliminating ghost workers and double dippers from the civil service payroll, and by increasing nonhydrocarbon revenue. Other agreed reforms aim at ensuring financial sector soundness and improving intermediation and the business environment to support growth and job creation. Other Article IV Issues: An updated debt sustainability analysis indicates that the risk of debt distress continues to be moderate. Plans to introduce fiscal federalism need to ensure appropriate expenditure and debt-contracting policies and controls. A gradual increase in exchange rate flexibility over the medium term would help protect competitiveness and reserves, and would support growth and job creation. More efforts are needed to further improve economic data and to strengthen capacity in AML/CFT.
September 23, 2014
Burundi: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation, Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria
Description: KEY ISSUES Context: Since the last Article IV Consultation in 2012, notable progress has been achieved to enhance macroeconomic stability, underpinned by the Fund-supported program. However, continued progress could be tested as the country faces a more challenging environment, due to increasing social and political tensions and frequent strikes in the run-up to the 2015 elections. Moreover, recent political developments reinforce uncertainties surrounding external budget support. Program: The Executive Board approved the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) on January 27, 2012, with a total access of SDR 30 million. The first, second, third, and fourth reviews were completed on July 27, 2012, February 14, 2013, September 6, 2013, and February 28, 2014, respectively. For the fifth review, all end-March performance criteria were observed, but fiscal revenues underperformed in the first quarter of 2014 requiring corrective fiscal measures (about 1 percent of GDP on an annual basis). Satisfactory progress has been made on structural reforms, albeit with some delays. Outlook and risks: The medium-term macroeconomic outlook is challenging. The principal near-term risk is an intensification of election-related uncertainty, economic disruptions and violence, which would affect investment and growth. Governance issues or delays in making measurable progress in public financial management (PFM) reforms, and heightening of political tensions could curtail donor support. Reintegrating repatriated refugees is likely to add to unemployment pressures, increase demand for public services, and exacerbate social conflict over access to land. Staff Views: The staff recommends the completion of the fifth review under the ECF arrangement, setting of revised performance criteria and indicative targets for September–December 2014, and disbursement of SDR 5 million. The authorities have consented to the publication of this report following the completion of the review.
Notes: Also available in French
September 23, 2014
Saudi Arabia: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: KEY ISSUES Context. Saudi Arabia’s economy has grown very strongly in recent years, benefitting from high oil prices and output, strong private sector activity, and government spending. It has played a systemic and stabilizing role in the global oil market. The economy has not been affected by the recent global financial market volatility. The Saudi population is young, growing, and increasingly well educated. Outlook and risks. The near term economic outlook is positive. Oil production is expected to be little changed from 2013, while non-oil growth will be underpinned by strong private sector activity and government spending on large projects in transportation infrastructure and housing. Inflation is expected to remain subdued. The main source of risk is the global oil market. Macroeconomic policies. Fiscal buffers are strong at present, providing macroeconomic policies with scope to respond to shocks. The current path of fiscal policy would, however, lead to a substantial erosion of these buffers over the medium-term. Fiscal adjustment needs to start to preserve these buffers and increase saving for intergenerational equity purposes. Monetary and macro-prudential policy settings are appropriate at present. Reforms to the macroeconomic policy framework can help strengthen macroeconomic management and create an environment conducive to private investment and job creation. Managing demographic pressures. A multi-pronged labor market reform program is increasing the employment of nationals in the private sector and improving the functioning of the labor market. An ambitious program to boost the supply of housing is also underway. Energy consumption is high, and price increases are needed to support efforts to increase energy efficiency and develop public transportation networks. Economic diversification. Creating a more diversified economy is a challenge given Saudi Arabia’s vast oil resources. The government is making considerable efforts to lay the groundwork for further diversification by upgrading infrastructure, strengthening education and skills, boosting access to finance for SMEs, and improving the business environment. However, more needs to be done to realign incentives to encourage firms to export and workers to seek jobs in the private sector.
Notes: Also Available in Arabic
September 23, 2014
Iceland: Technical Assistance Report-Modernizing the Icelandic VAT
Description: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Iceland’s government, elected in 2013, is conducting a general review of its tax policy with a view toward making it more efficient and less distortionary.1 To this end, it has targeted VAT reform as a priority to become more reliant on consumption rather than income taxation. The narrow base and wide gap between the very high 25.5 percent main VAT rate and lower rate of 7 percent distort economic behavior and encourage tax arbitrage, evasion and lobbying. The efficiency of the Icelandic VAT is thus currently well below the European and OECD averages. To address this situation, the government plans in the near term to broaden the base by eliminating exemptions, raising the lower rate, and reducing the top rate. In the medium term, the government targets a single-rate system. To offset the potentially inflationary effects of VAT reform and reduce price distortions, the government is considering repealing the commodity tax and reviewing the trade regime for agriculture. It may also seek to increase social benefits for low-income households most affected by the VAT increases. These measures are all in accord with recommendations made by two previous IMF missions in 2010 and 2011. This mission reiterates its previous recommendations that Iceland should in the near term: (1) eliminate exemptions at least for tourism, transport, sports and culture; (2) limit VAT refunds to local government to services that could be outsourced; (3) double the lower rate to 14 percent; (4) reduce the top rate as revenue permits, depending on base broadening; and (5) in the longer term, move to a single VAT rate of about 21 percent. In addition, this report makes the following major recommendations: • Consider at least doubling the VAT threshold to ISK 2,000,000 (about USD 17,850 or EUR 12,900). A higher threshold will ease administration, allowing limited RSK resources to be focused on the large taxpayers who generate most VAT revenue. • Fully tax all sales and leasing of commercial buildings, as well as first sales of new residential buildings. While materials and construction activities are subject to VAT, sale of buildings has been exempt. This has created pressure for special refund schemes for builders to recoup their input VAT. Taxing commercial buildings and rent will remove this necessity and prevent cascading, while taxing first residential sales will broaden the VAT base to include housing consumption. • Eliminate special VAT refund schemes for buses, and domestic boats and aircraft, as well as CO2 tax refunds for rental car imports. These schemes have been encouraged by the exemption of passenger transport, and by the anomalous taxation of car rental services at the top rate. Taxing transportation will remove the need for these accommodations and level the playing field for car rental companies. • Repeal the commodity tax on building products, appliances and electronics. This will help offset the one-off inflationary effects of VAT reform and remove price distortions on these goods, which having neither inelastic demand nor negative externalities do not meet the criteria for special excise taxation. • If the sugar tax portion of the commodity tax is retained, conduct a study to ensure that the price increase it imposes on sweetened products is sufficient to discourage their consumption. Alternatively, repeal the sugar tax and move sweetened products to the top VAT rate.
September 22, 2014
Sri Lanka: First Post-Program Monitoring Discussion
Description: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context. Sri Lanka’s economy has navigated recent market turbulence relatively well. Growth has remained solid, inflation is in mid-single digits, and the current account deficit has narrowed. From mid-May, the exchange rate came under pressure as market expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve tapering shifted, but Sri Lanka’s experience was in line with that of other emerging markets. Since September, market pressures have eased. By some metrics, reserves remain on the low side, but were boosted in late-September by an external debt issue of a large state-owned bank. Monetary policy. Monetary policy has eased progressively since end-2012 as growth slowed, inflation fell, and private sector credit weakened. At the time of the mission, staff recommended keeping monetary policy on hold for the near term. However, policy rates were subsequently reduced, with the central bank citing continued low inflation and the opportunity to stimulate growth to a higher level in 2014. Fiscal policy. The authorities remain committed to fiscal consolidation and intend to meet their 2013 deficit target. However, the steady real decline in government revenue collection poses risks to needed medium-term fiscal consolidation. The 2014 budget offers an opportunity to address the steady slide in revenues, including by further expanding the tax base. External debt. Alongside Sri Lanka’s graduation to middle-income status has come a shift away from concessional, bilateral debt and towards external debt issuance on commercial terms by state owned and commercial banks. While this is a natural progression of financial development, it also raises risks. It is essential that the proceeds of such external borrowing are invested so as to enhance productivity, add to economic resilience, and generate the foreign exchange needed to service future obligations.