Country Reports

December 5, 2014

Kingdom of the Netherlands—Netherlands: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Dutch economy continues to improve, supported by exports, rising housing prices, and improving sentiment. Exports are rising on expanding global trade, but consumption remains sluggish as indebted households continue to save. The external current account surplus now exceeds 10 percent of GDP, led by an improving trade balance. Labor slack and the large output gap have pushed down core inflation, raising real interest rates. Growth is expected to reach 0.8 percent in 2014 before rising gradually to 1.2 percent in 2015, supported by rising exports and a modest recovery in housing prices. Investment is projected to remain subdued owing to weak domestic demand.

December 2, 2014

Jordan: Fifth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Applicability of Performance Criterion, Modification of Performance Criterion, and Rephasing of Access

Description: This paper discusses Jordan’s Fifth Review Under the Stand-by Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion (PC) and Applicability of PC, Modification of PC, and Rephasing of Access. Program performance in 2014 is broadly on track. The end-September PC on the central government primary deficit is estimated to have been met, but the PC on the combined public sector deficit is likely to have been missed owing to a shortfall in gas flows from Egypt. International reserves continued to over-perform through September. The IMF staff supports the completion of the fifth review and the related purchase.

December 2, 2014

Papua New Guinea: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Papua New Guinea’s economy is experiencing an important transition, as new liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and exports commence. With LNG production and exports now starting, resource sector growth is projected to surge in 2015, but spillovers to the rest of the economy may be more limited. Inflation has moderated from its peaks during the construction boom and is likely to remain reasonably low given the global outlook for commodity prices. The ongoing economic transition calls for adjustment of macroeconomic policies to safeguard macrofinancial stability.

December 2, 2014

Papua New Guinea: Selected Issues Paper

Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the sustainability of Papua New Guinea’s current and medium-term fiscal policy and its consistency with government objectives. The Papua New Guinea government faces major challenges in shaping a fiscal policy that promotes stability, meets development needs, and adheres to its debt ceilings over the medium term. It could decide to continue with its current fiscal stance, which would see its resource wealth exhausted quickly through large development spending. This approach would likely require continued borrowing and leave little savings for future generations.

December 1, 2014

Mexico: Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement

Description: This paper discusses Mexico’s Request for Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement. Mexico’s macroeconomic policies and policy frameworks remain very strong. Real GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 3.5 percent in 2015. The authorities are requesting a new FCL arrangement for two years at the same level of access. In their view, the risk of a rapid rebalancing of investor portfolios away from emerging markets remains elevated. The IMF staff considers the proposed access level of SDR 47.292 billion to be appropriate. Uncertainties surrounding the global outlook, including risks related to the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, remain high.

November 21, 2014

Zimbabwe: Third Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program and Successor Staff-Monitored Program

Description: This paper discusses Zimbabwe’s Third Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) and the successor SMP. Zimbabwe has succeeded in keeping macroeconomic conditions relatively stable, despite difficult political and economic circumstances. In particular, the precarious external position improved somewhat, with higher international reserves and a projected lower current account deficit in 2014. The SMP will cover a 15-month period, October 2014 through December 2015, and will be monitored based on quantitative targets and structural benchmarks. The IMF staff welcomes the authorities’ intention to continue to seek financing through grants or loans that are as concessional as possible, and to limit contracting nonconcessional loans within the ceilings set under the program.

November 12, 2014

Republic of Fiji: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that growth in Fiji in 2013 accelerated to 4.6 percent. Consumption and investment indicators suggest continued strength in 2014, with economic growth projected at 3.8 percent. Headline inflation is currently low as imported commodity and food prices have remained stable. The Reserve Bank of Fiji lowered its policy rate to 0.5 percent in 2011, and monetary policy has been on hold since then. In response to lower rates and improved confidence, net domestic credit accelerated in the first half of 2014. Based on developments in the first half of 2014, the deficit financing target is on track to be met.

November 12, 2014

Mexico: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that after a sharp slowdown in 2013, growth in Mexico is projected to recover to 2.4 percent this year. The strong recovery in the United States in the second quarter of 2014 has triggered a rebound in Mexico’s manufacturing production and exports. In addition, construction activity is firming up, supported by a rebound of residential investment and an increase of government spending on infrastructure. Mexico’s external position remains broadly consistent with fundamentals and desirable policy settings. In 2014, the current account deficit is projected to remain unchanged with an improving trade balance offset by a continued increase in factor payments.

November 12, 2014

Mexico: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the impact of Mexico’s energy reform on hydrocarbons production. These reforms aim to increase oil and gas production by eliminating the state oil company’s (PEMEX) monopoly on exploration and production of hydrocarbons, while retaining the prime directive that these resources are the property of the Mexican nation. This paper focuses on the nature of reforms and what problems these reforms are addressing. It presents illustrative production scenarios for crude oil and natural gas and estimates the commensurate investment costs and foreign direct investment associated with each scenario. The paper also examines the markets for the distribution of natural gas and electricity.

November 7, 2014

Guinea-Bissau: Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility

Description: This paper discusses Guinea-Bissau’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF). In 2012 and 2013, Guinea-Bissau suffered a severe balance of payments shock as the international price of raw cashew nuts—the main export product—fell by about 20 percent per year. The authorities have requested assistance under the RCF to help address the urgent balance of payments and fiscal financing needs for 2014. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for assistance under the RCF in view of their currently limited capacity to implement policies of an upper credit tranche-quality economic program, the large and urgent balance of payments need, and the catalytic effect of IMF support for other external financing.

Notes: Also Available in Portuguese