Country Reports

December 18, 2014

Denmark: Systemic Issues in Mortgage Loans and Covered Bond Finance: Technical Note

Description: This technical note analyzes systemic issues in mortgage loans and covered bond finance in Denmark. Mortgage lending has seen significant product innovation in recent years. Loans with adjustable interest rates and/or interest-only periods, which have been introduced since the late 1990s, had grown to 75 percent and 53 percent, respectively, of total outstanding mortgage loans at the end of 2013. The major changes in the characteristics of the underlying mortgage loans have naturally been reflected in an important evolution of the covered bond market. Traditionally, covered bonds were callable annuities with maturities closely matching those of the underlying fixed rate loans. In contrast, adjustable and variable interest rate loans are financed by bonds with short maturities.

December 17, 2014

Republic of South Sudan: 2014 Article IV Consultation—Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Press Release

Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that South Sudan’s economic performance has been mixed in recent years. Real GDP growth has displayed high volatility, the result of changes in oil and agricultural production. Inflation rose in an initial period of economic instability in 2011–12 but was contained in 2013–14 thanks to fiscal and monetary restraint and lower food prices. Serious challenges remain, including distortions in the foreign exchange market and in budget execution, lower international oil prices, and subdued oil production. As a result, financing the budget for FY2014/15 is challenging and will likely require policy decisions given the otherwise potentially adverse impact on economic stability and inflation.

December 17, 2014

Republic of Moldova: Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions

Description: This paper presents Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions focusing on Moldova. Governance in the banking system remains poor and the condition of some large banks is fragile. The budget faces a tight financing situation, and—without corrective measures—the deficit is projected to widen significantly in 2015. Russia’s new restrictions on imports from Moldova are exacerbating the ongoing slowdown in activity, easing inflationary pressures, and weakening export performance. Discussions mainly focused on policies to address the significant risks in the banking sector, return to a path of fiscal consolidation, and boost potential growth and preserve external stability.

December 12, 2014

Uganda: Third Review Under the Policy Support Instrument—Staff Report; and Press Release

Description: This paper discusses Uganda’s Third Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI). Supported by generally sound policies, Uganda’s economic performance was positive in FY2013/14. All quantitative assessment criteria and structural benchmarks were met, and the authorities have taken action to address the shortfall in tax revenue collection. Progress toward the achievement of other key structural reforms has proceeded as expected. The envisaged policy mix is set to maintain the growth momentum in FY2014/15. Based on the satisfactory program performance and the proposed policies, IMF staff supports completion of the third PSI review.

December 12, 2014

Rwanda: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation and Second Review Under the Policy Support Instrument

Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation and Second Review Under the Policy Support Instrument highlights that Rwanda’s economic performance since the turn of the century has been remarkable. Strong policies have played a key role in maintaining real GDP growth at 7.8 percent on average since 2000, with significant poverty reduction. The economy is recovering from the disruptions induced by aid suspension through mid-2013, with growth bouncing back in the first half of 2014 and inflation well contained. Growth in 2014 is expected to be about 6 percent, rising to the longer-term growth rate of 7.5 percent in the medium term.

December 11, 2014

Algeria: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic activity in Algeria has picked up in 2014, with real GDP growth projected to reach 4 percent following 2.8 percent growth in 2013. The hydrocarbon sector is expected to expand for the first time in eight years, while nonhydrocarbon growth remains supportive. Inflation has decelerated sharply to 2.1 percent, thanks in part to tighter monetary policy. The fiscal deficit is expected to widen to more than 7 percent owing to lower hydrocarbon revenue, a sharp increase in capital expenditure, and continued high current spending. Fiscal savings are expected to decline for the second consecutive year.

December 11, 2014

South Africa: Financial System Stability Assessment

Description: This paper discusses findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment for South Africa. South Africa’s financial sector operates in a challenging economic environment. Despite remarkable progress since the end of apartheid in 1994, South Africa still has one of the world’s highest unemployment and income inequality rates. Slow economic growth since 2008 has further aggravated unemployment, real disposable income is stagnant, and households are heavily indebted. Relatively high capital buffers as well as sound regulation and supervision have helped mitigate the risks. Stress tests confirm the capital resiliency of banks and insurance companies to severe shocks but illustrate a vulnerability to liquidity shortfalls.

December 11, 2014

Algeria: Selected Issues Paper

Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses the need to meet Algeria’s fiscal challenges. Although Algeria enjoys substantial fiscal savings, fiscal policy is currently on an unsustainable path. Under current projections, Algeria will deplete its financial savings in the long term, leaving future generations worse off. To restore fiscal sustainability and ensure intergenerational equity, Algeria will need to undertake significant and sustained fiscal consolidation in the coming years. Successful fiscal consolidation will depend on both mobilizing more revenues and rationalizing expenditures. If done right, fiscal consolidation can restore sustainability while minimizing the impact on economic growth and enhancing equity.

December 11, 2014

Mali: First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria

Description: This paper discusses Mali’s First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria (PC), and Request for Modification of PC. Economic recovery is under way but remains fragile. The buildup of the large-scale donor support has been hampered by serious lapses in public financial management (PFM), which raised governance concerns. With remedial measures now in place to address the PFM weaknesses, the program remains on track. The authorities are requesting waivers for PC on: tax revenue and nonconcessional borrowing. The IMF staff recommends conclusion of the first and second program reviews.

Notes: Also available in French

December 11, 2014

South Africa: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper estimates the potential growth rate for South Africa using different methodologies. In line with existing studies and findings for other emerging markets, the paper finds that South Africa’s potential growth rate has declined in the post global financial crisis period. Though there is substantial uncertainty, South Africa’s potential growth is estimated to have fallen from an average of 3.5 to 4 percent during 2000–08 to 2.25 to 2.50 percent in 2010–14, implying that the output gap in 2014 would be between –0.5 and –1.3 percent of GDP.