Country Reports
2015
February 11, 2015
Arab Republic of Egypt: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: KEY ISSUES The 2014 Article IV consultation takes place when the authorities have started to address longstanding economic challenges. For a number of years Egypt has suffered from low and non-inclusive growth and from high unemployment. Since 2011 these problems have been compounded by large fiscal deficits and rising public debt and by external fragility evidenced by loss of foreign exchange reserves. In 2014, Egypt adopted a new constitution and elected a new president who was candid with the electorate on the need to reform the economy. The government has developed a plan centered on structural reform and investment promotion to raise growth and create jobs, and fiscal adjustment to bring the budget deficit and public debt under control. Crucially, the authorities have already begun to implement fuel subsidy reform, raising prices by 40–80 percent in July 2014. They have also begun the reforms needed to raise tax revenue and to make Egypt a more attractive destination for investment. There was agreement that the authorities’ objectives are ambitious but are broadly within reach with steady policy implementation. The authorities aim to raise growth to 6 percent per annum, reduce annual inflation to 7 percent, bring down the fiscal deficit to 8 percent of GDP and debt to 80–85 percent of GDP, and increase foreign exchange reserves to 3½ months of imports, all within the next five years. Staff considers these objectives appropriately ambitious, although targeting a higher level of reserves would be prudent. It believes that the authorities’ policies, if followed steadfastly, are broadly consistent with these objectives, but noted that a number of policies—including the details of some fiscal measures and structural measures to improve the business environment—are still being formulated. The authorities and the staff differed somewhat on the extent of vulnerabilities and risks. The authorities are confident that they will be able to follow through on their policies and that improved confidence will lead to a surge in foreign investment, a pickup in tourism, and strong economic growth. Staff emphasized that the authorities’ policies would still leave significant vulnerabilities, namely high public debt and large financing gaps, which would need to be covered by greater adjustment or financing, or a combination of the two. Staff also pointed to the difficulty of maintaining tight fiscal and monetary policies over a long period, the risks of dilution of structural reform efforts, and the uncertain regional security environment. To contain these vulnerabilities and risks, staff recommended developing contingency measures in the budget, taking steps to build up reserves buffers, and greater exchange rate flexibility to restore competitiveness. However, staff also agreed that with steadfast commitment to reform, Egypt’s prospects could be stronger than assumed in staff’s projections. In particular, the recovery in investment could exceed expectations.
February 5, 2015
Mozambique: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation
Description: This Fiscal Transparency Evaluation report highlights that Mozambique’s program of budget reforms has brought most aspects of its fiscal reporting and budgeting practices into line with basic and good practices, as defined under the IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code. The weaknesses on fiscal reporting could be addressed on the short term by the on-going reforms. The disclosure and management of fiscal risks are inadequate and should be improved on the medium term to face the challenges that may arise from the expected increase in natural resource revenues. This report also describes several areas in which Mozambique’s fiscal transparency practices could be further improved. The institutional coverage of fiscal reports is still limited; it does not provide complete and reliable information on the operations performed by the social security fund and numerous autonomous entities, which are likely to be significant. The government’s fiscal reporting is prepared on a modified cash basis, and important elements of the balance sheet, such as the current value of arrears and of shares of corporations owned by the State, are not reported. Based on the analysis, this report makes seven recommendations aimed at materially enhancing the information base for fiscal decision-making in Mozambique and ensuring the country keeps pace with evolving international transparency standards and practice.
Notes: Also available in Portuguese
February 5, 2015
Kenya: Request for Stand-by Arrangement and an Arrangement Under the Standby Credit Facility
Description: Following the approval of a new constitution in 2010, the authorities have embarked on important reforms including fiscal devolution, VAT reform, and the overhaul of the expenditure management framework. Supported by a three-year ECF, which expired in December 2013 with all six reviews completed, Kenya has consolidated macroeconomic stability. Growth has been robust, inflation contained, debt remained sustainable and reserve buffers increased (Tables 1a and 1b and Figures 1 and 2). This progress in a market-friendly environment has continued to attract the interest of foreign investors. As a result, Kenya is recognized as a frontier market increasingly integrated in global financial markets. A Eurobond debut issue of US$2 billion (the largest in SSA so far) took place successfully in June followed by a $750 million re-tap in December.
February 4, 2015
Montenegro: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: KEY ISSUES Context: Moderate growth is continuing; however credit and wage growth are weak. The level of nonperforming loans (NPLs) remains high and public debt has risen sharply in recent years. Fiscal policy: Medium-term funding needs to roll over existing debt and to fund budget deficits are large. A new highway, budgeted to cost about one quarter of GDP, will cause deficits to widen and add to public debt. The draft 2015 budget shows appropriate restraint on other spending, but a long period of strong fiscal discipline will be needed to manage fiscal risks. Laying out clear long-term plans for managing the public finances would boost credibility and reduce risks to market access. Fundamental expenditure reform, especially of the pension system and the public sector wage bill, would be an essential part of such plans. Financial sector: The banking system’s liquidity appears comfortable; however, profitability is low and lending spreads are high. Regulatory provisioning is set higher than that reported under international accounting standards, but a wide range of provisioning levels across banks and weak incentives to take losses remain concerns. A more transparent and comprehensive reporting environment would be beneficial. Reforms to ensure better enforcement of contracts and collateral would help bring down structural lending risk premia. Structural reform: Higher levels of labor participation and employment are needed to boost potential growth and safeguard the public finances. Ensuring that wages adjust in line with productivity alongside reforms to achieve better employment outcomes and boost productivity would enhance the economy’s ability to respond to macroeconomic shocks, and are even more important in a country that lacks its own currency and with decreasing fiscal buffers.
February 4, 2015
Costa Rica: Selected Issues and Analytical Notes
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines several real sector issues, including estimates of potential output, the effect of Intel’s withdrawal on gross domestic product (GDP), labor market and inequality and electricity prices in Costa Rica. The production function approach shows that the main drivers of fluctuations in GDP growth are total factor productivity (TFP) and labor supply. These results on TFP, however, should be interpreted with caution. The TFP measure is a residual—the difference between output growth and the growth in the quantity (and quality) of inputs. Estimates suggest that potential GDP growth is about 4.3 percent, the output gap is broadly closed, and Intel’s withdrawal will lower real GDP growth in about 1/2 percentage point. Significant wage premia are identified across public versus private sectors and some evidence of intergenerational inequality is also presented. Electricity tariffs are found to be regionally competitive albeit with inefficiencies in their determination.
February 4, 2015
Costa Rica: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: The economy recovered quickly from the global crisis of 2008–09, with healthy growth and low inflation. Growth has, however, slowed recently and is expected to remain subdued in the short run, since gains from recovery in the U.S. will be offset by the closure of the Intel manufacturing plant. Inflation is elevated, owing primarily to exchange rate (XR) depreciation triggered by global repricing of emerging market assets in early 2014. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. Absent consolidation, large fiscal deficits would make public debt dynamics unsustainable in the long-run.
February 4, 2015
Angola: Technical Assistant Report - Angola: Fuel Price Subsidy Reform the Way Forward
Description: This Technical Assistance Report on Angola highlights that the Angolan authorities’ plan to scale up priority spending will intensify fiscal pressures. The overall fiscal balance is projected to reach a deficit of about 4 percent of GDP in 2014, owing to a temporary decline in oil production. Besides being fiscally costly, fuel subsidies are inefficient and inequitable. They crowd out growth-enhancing spending?Angola’s spending in fuel subsidies is roughly the same as outlays in education and 42 percent larger than health-spending countries. In addition, they provide rent seeking opportunities and raise governance challenges. Furthermore, subsidies create incentives for overconsumption and in turn worsen traffic congestion and accidents?after malaria, road accidents are the second leading cause of death in Angola. Moreover, because most of the benefits of fuel price subsidies accrue to well-off households, they reinforce inequality?more than 50 percent of subsidies go to households in the top 20 percent of the income distribution. The authorities plan to reduce fuel subsidies gradually. This report provides a reform option that would eliminate fuel subsidies and result in fiscal savings of 2 percent of GDP.
February 4, 2015
Antigua and Barbuda: Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) Performance Assessment
Description: The purpose of this Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) performance assessment is to provide an objective analysis of the present performance of the public financial management system in Antigua and Barbuda, and identify changes incurred since the last PEFA assessment undertaken in 2010. In the wake of a prolonged economic crisis, fiscal outcomes have not been consistent with the budget as approved. Central government public finances are comprehensively presented in budget documents, but some weaknesses persist. New policy initiatives and their budgetary implications are not sufficiently analyzed; a significant share of extra-budgetary expenditures remains unreported; and oversight and reporting requirements of statutory bodies are not yet fully enforced, impeding a comprehensive assessment of the associated fiscal risks. Although the revenue administration has been strengthened over the last years, the control over budget execution is still weak. There have been improvements in the quality of external audit, but lack of Parliamentary scrutiny undermines the accountability framework.
January 30, 2015
Portugal: First Post-Program Monitoring
Description: The three year Fund-supported program that expired at end-June 2014 succeeded in stabilizing Portugal’s economy and restoring access to sovereign debt markets. Following the deep downturn of 2011–12, the economy has expanded in six of the last seven quarters, albeit at a moderate pace. The cumulative fiscal consolidation over the past three years has been substantial, and the current account is now in surplus. Regained policy credibility and benign market conditions have facilitated the resumption of market access at declining yields. But private consumption is driving the recovery, while the necessary rebalancing of the economy remains elusive. With post-crisis labor slack still extensive, attaining higher growth through private investment and export-led growth continues to be constrained by high corporate debt and weak external competitiveness. Moreover, the momentum for reforms and fiscal adjustment appears to have flagged over the past six months. Notwithstanding past structural reform efforts aimed at improving competitiveness, the slow expansion despite the high labor slack suggests that the unfinished agenda is substantial. Corporate debt is also excessively high, acting as a brake on investment and job creation. While the fiscal targets for 2014 seem well within reach, significantly more ambitious expenditure reforms will be needed to comply with the government’s own medium-term budget framework. Recently regained policy credibility and benign market conditions provide a welcome but only limited window of opportunity to press ahead with necessary reforms. With elections due by October 2015, building consensus around these reforms will prove difficult in the short term. In this context, discussions focused on three key areas necessary to maintaining economic and financial stability and improving medium- term growth prospects: (i) enhancing competitiveness through further reforms to improve the functioning of labor and product markets, and making progress on corporate deleveraging; (ii) safeguarding financial sector stability in a low profitability and low growth environment; and (iii) ensuring fiscal stability in a low profitability and low growth environment; and (iii) ensuring fiscal sustainability against the backdrop of vulnerable debt dynamics and large financing needs.
January 30, 2015
Canada: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper assesses Canada’s post-crisis export performance of non-energy products using model-based benchmarks. Specifically, the analysis explores whether the pre-crisis relationship between Canada’s non-energy exports and their determinants still holds in the post-crisis period. At the aggregate level, Canada’s non-energy exports do not seem to have performed particularly poorly relative to the benchmark. Of the 23 non-energy products, five products outperformed their respective benchmarks both in growth and level terms, while seven products underperformed by the same measures. The statistical tests show that a total of 13 products had a structural break during the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. At the aggregate level, the time paths of non-energy exports’ elasticities confirm the increasing importance of US business investment. The findings at the product level reinforce those at the aggregate level, but also reveal some interesting differences between across products. A decomposition of Canada’s non-energy export growth based on the post-crisis elasticities confirms the significant contributions from US consumption and non-US demand.