Country Reports

February 23, 2015

Morocco: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Morocco has made important strides in maintaining macroeconomic stability in a difficult environment, but challenges remain to reduce fiscal and external vulnerabilities, strengthen growth, create jobs, and tackle poverty. Growth slowed in 2014 as a result of a contraction in agricultural activity following an exceptional 2013 crop and weak demand from Europe. However, growth is expected to rebound in 2015 to about 4.4 percent and remain robust in the medium term as external demand and domestic confidence strengthen. Executive Directors have commended the authorities for their strong policy actions, which have reduced economic vulnerabilities.

Notes: Also available in French

February 23, 2015

Morocco: First Review Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary And Liquidity Line

Description: This paper discusses Morocco’s First Review Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL). Significant progress was made in implementing the reform agenda. The program remains broadly on track, and Morocco continues to meet the qualification criteria for a PLL. The fiscal end-September indicative target was missed by 0.7 percent of GDP. Subject to the Executive Board’s positive assessment in the context of the 2014 Article IV consultation, the IMF staff recommends the completion of the first review under the PLL arrangement.

Notes: Also available in French

February 20, 2015

Paraguay: Selected Issues Paper

Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the spillover effects of key external shocks on Paraguay. It presents an overview of Paraguay’s major economic and financial linkages with the rest world, and quantifies the spillover effects of key external factors on the Paraguayan economy, using a vector autoregression approach. The empirical results suggest that global shocks have a significant impact on Paraguay’s growth rate. The paper also highlights that output and exchange rate shocks stemming from Brazil and Argentina are also important, even after controlling for global factors.

Notes: Also Available in Spanish

February 20, 2015

Paraguay: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic activity in Paraguay has slowed from record-high growth in 2013, but remains buoyant. Construction, manufacturing, and services led the expansion in 2014, whereas electricity production declined, and re-exports suffered from weak growth in Brazil. Full-year growth is estimated to have slightly exceeded 4 percent. Real GDP is projected to remain close to 4 percent in 2015. Weak trading partner growth and lower export prices cloud the outlook, and agricultural production is projected to rise only marginally above the high level of 2014.

Notes: Also Available in Spanish

February 19, 2015

Republic of Slovenia: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Slovenia is recovering from a deep crisis. Growth is estimated to have reached about 2.6 percent in 2014, supported by strong exports and EU-funded public investment. The financial sector has stabilized following recapitalization of the major banks by the state. Government bonds yields have declined markedly. Growth is projected at about 1.9 and 1.7 percent in 2015 and 2016, respectively, with potential growth well below precrisis levels. Executive Directors welcomed the fact that Slovenia’s economy is recovering and commended the authorities for their efforts to mend the banking system, facilitate corporate debt restructuring, and consolidate the public finances.

February 19, 2015

Republic of Slovenia: Selected Issues Paper

Description: This Selected Issues paper examines social spending reform and fiscal savings in Slovenia. Rising expenditure has been at the root of Slovenia’s fiscal deterioration since the onset of the crisis. The paper explores reform options to reduce Slovenia’s social spending over the medium and long term. It discusses key features of the pension system, and analyzes the evolution of pension spending in the absence of reforms. The paper also examines the health and education spending and provides a framework to assess their efficiency relative to other countries.

February 17, 2015

Guinea: Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, Financing Assurances Review, and Requests for an Augmentation of Access and Extension of the Current Arrangement

Description: This paper discusses Guinea’s Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), Financing Assurances Review, and Requests for an Augmentation of Access and Extension of Current Arrangement. Performance under the ECF program has been satisfactory. All quantitative performance criteria have been met. Macroeconomic policies in 2015 will remain supportive to help deal with the Ebola outbreak. The IMF staff supports the completion of the fifth review under the ECF arrangement and financing assurances review and requests for an extension of the current arrangement to end-2015, an augmentation in access, and disbursement of 25 percent of quota as budget support under the 5th review.

February 13, 2015

Union of the Comoros: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Description: KEY ISSUES • The Comorian economy continues to grow although at a slightly slower pace. Economic growth in 2014 is projected at 3.3 percent, adversely affected by electricity disruptions and slower-than-expected implementation of the public investment program. Inflation has remained subdued. Staffs’ baseline assumption is that real GDP growth will average around 4 percent per annum over the medium term, provided reforms are implemented. • Implementation of the 2014 budget was challenging, particularly after mid-year. While revenues were broadly on target, resources were inadequate to meet the higher- than-budgeted wage bill resulting from an increase in teacher salaries in March and previously un-budgeted expenditures, including on elections. Domestically-financed investment spending was severely constrained and temporary arrears were incurred on salaries and external debt. • The key short-term challenge is to find a better balance between available resources and expenditures so that arrears can be avoided. Spending plans need to be based on realistic expectations of the resources likely to be available. The 2015 budget is premised on this principle but the scope for domestically-financed investment is inadequate as obligatory spending on wages and salaries and debt service absorbs most of domestic revenue. • For the medium-term the key challenges are to create fiscal space for infrastructure investment and social spending, accelerate inclusive growth and employment generation, and reduce poverty. The authorities need to focus their efforts on strengthening revenue administration and public financial management to expand fiscal space and improve transparency. Weaknesses in the business environment, including inadequate infrastructure, especially in the energy sector, and difficulties in contract enforcement represent important challenges.

Notes: Also Available in French

February 12, 2015

Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Description: KEY ISSUES Context. Mauritania’s economy has benefited from macroeconomic stability and high growth in the context of contained inflation, responsible macro-policies, high iron ore prices and scaled-up public investment. However, economic growth has not translated into broadly improved living standards and is being hit by a sharp decline in iron ore prices. Outlook and Risks. Although the outlook remains favorable, it hinges heavily on stabilizing iron ore prices and expanding mining capacity. Downside risks to the outlook dominate because iron ore prices may decline further in response to excess supply in the global market. Key Policy Recommendations. With high risk of debt distress and deteriorating terms of trade, Mauritania’s fiscal policy needs to remain focused on consolidation to support fiscal sustainability. Over the medium term, a fiscal framework with a full-fledged fiscal rule will help prevent the boom–bust cycles that ensue from volatility in natural resource revenue, and with strengthened governance in managing mining wealth. The central bank should take advantage of the low-inflation environment to strengthen monetary policy formulation, gradually liberalize the foreign exchange market, and introduce liquidity support and banking resolution frameworks. The implementation of the recent FSAP recommendations should be pursued to enhance the stability of the financial sector stability. Economic diversification and inclusive growth are the foremost medium-term challenges. The authorities should accelerate structural reforms needed to raise Mauritania’s potential growth, create jobs, and improve living standards for all Mauritanians. Article VIII. A comprehensive analysis of the foreign exchange market identified exchange restrictions and multiple currency practices (MCPs) subject to Fund approval under Article VIII. Effective November 20, 2013, the exchange rate regime is classified as “stabilized” arrangement.

Notes: Also available in French

February 12, 2015

Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Selected Issues Paper

Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes various aspects of fiscal framework in the Republic of Mauritania. Mauritania needs to avoid pro-cyclical fiscal policies and adopt rules that guide medium-term fiscal sustainability. Fiscal policy has been responsible and focused on fiscal consolidation, but important challenges lie ahead linked to price volatility, exhaustibility of resources, and effective use of resources. Mauritania has important natural resource wealth, and its fiscal policy is shaped by considerations resulting from its reliance on resource revenues. Prospects for price shocks in the short term and significant mining expansion in the long term could pose significant challenges to fiscal policy management. The analysis of fiscal framework options reveals that a fiscal rule which targets a nonresource primary balance for long-term sustainability, designed to allow some frontloading of public spending on productive investment, would be appropriate for Mauritania under the assumption of a finite resource horizon. A fiscal rule targeting a structural resource balance would be appropriate in the scenario of long-lasting resources, possible under the assumption of favorable developments in the global commodity markets.