Country Reports
2015
May 7, 2015
Jordan: Sixth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Applicability of Performance Criteria, and Rephasing of Access
Description: This paper discusses Jordan’s Sixth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Applicability of Performance Criteria (PC), and Rephasing of Access. PC Program performance remains broadly on course. All end-March 2015 PCs are expected to be met. Structural performance saw improvement, including the pre-approval of a credit bureau and the establishment of a new public investment framework. There is an urgent need for broad-based policy actions in the labor market to put the unemployed into jobs, increase female labor force participation, and reform public-sector compensation and hiring practices. The IMF staff supports the completion of the sixth review and the related purchase.
May 7, 2015
Thailand: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that after a sharp contraction in the first quarter of 2014, Thailand’s economy experienced a modest recovery in subsequent quarters, to expand by 0.7 percent in the year as a whole. Inflation decelerated toward the end of 2014 and became negative in January 2015 owing to a sharp decline in oil prices. The recovery is expected to continue in 2015 with growth projected at 3.7 percent on account of some rebound in consumption, including from lower fuel prices, and in private investment as backlogs of project approvals have been largely cleared by various government agencies.
May 7, 2015
Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation Discussions
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Aruba has been recovering from a severe double-dip recession. The economy faced two major shocks over the past five years—the global financial crisis and shutdown of the Valero oil refinery in 2012. After a strong recovery in 2013 with growth reaching 4.75 percent, the pace of activity moderated in 2014. In 2015, growth is projected to rise to 2.25 percent. The tourism sector—the mainstay of the Aruban economy—is envisaged to grow, albeit at a slower rate. Moreover, domestic demand is slated to recover notably amid subsiding policy uncertainty and as key public-private partnership projects move forward.
May 4, 2015
Republic of Poland: Technical Assistance Report-Tax Administration-Modernization Challenges and Strategic Priorities
Description: This Technical Assistance Report provides advice on the modernization of the tax administration in Poland. Tax collections in Poland as a percentage of GDP are lower than those found in larger European Union member states. The report discusses collection performance of the main taxes in recent years and the approach to tax administration modernization. It also addresses selected issues concerning the tax administration institutional reform; the administration and delivery of core tax administration operations, including for the largest taxpayers; and the approach to managing compliance risks to the tax system.
May 4, 2015
Republic of Latvia: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Latvia’s strong recovery has recently slowed in the face of sluggish growth in the euro area and deteriorating economic conditions in Russia amid rising geopolitical tensions. GDP growth decelerated to 2.4 percent in 2014 reflecting weak demand and the prolonged closure of a steel manufacturer. In 2015, the weak external environment, particularly the sharp slowdown in Russia, will continue to weigh on exports and investment. This is expected to be mitigated, but not fully offset, by higher disposable income owing to lower oil prices and robust real wages, the reopening of the steel manufacturer, and the accommodative monetary stance of the European Central Bank.
May 4, 2015
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines the prospects for Latvia continuing to rapidly reduce its distance from the productivity frontier. It looks at the empirical record of countries that have in the past attained a similar relative level of income to that of Latvia at present, to gauge the plausibility of the forecast for Latvia’s medium term GDP growth of about 4 percent per year. It highlights that more than one-third of the countries reaching a similar stage of development managed to sustain higher subsequent growth. The paper also confirms the importance of investment and structural reforms for Latvia’s future convergence, using a sector-level analysis.
May 1, 2015
Guinea: Request for Debt Relief Under the Catastrophe Containment Window of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust—Staff Report; and Press Release
Description: This paper discusses Guinea’s Request for Debt Relief Under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) Window of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief (CCR) Trust. Since early 2014, Guinea has been experiencing an ongoing Ebola epidemic that has spread to several countries in the region. The immediate economic effect of the Ebola epidemic has been a pronounced slowdown in 2014. Performance under the Extended Credit Facility arrangement has been satisfactory, the difficult macroeconomic environment notwithstanding. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for assistance under the CC window of the CCR Trust given the nature of the public health disaster, and the ensuing financing needs to contain the disease and rehabilitate Guinea’s public health system.
April 30, 2015
Tonga: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; and Press Release
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Tonga’s economy is estimated to have grown by about 2 percent in FY2013/14 (year ending June) driven by agriculture and construction, following a contraction in 2012/13 mainly caused by the completion of a large capital project. The external position has strengthened, following large grants and remittance inflows, which have bolstered international reserves. Real GDP growth is expected to average 2–3 percent in FY2014/15–FY2019/20. Although the progress of reconstruction in the aftermath of 2014 Cyclone Ian is slower than expected, the coronation scheduled for July 2015 and preparations for the 2019 South Pacific Games will support economic activity over the next few years.
April 30, 2015
Mongolia: 2015 Article IV Consultation—Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Mongolia
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Mongolia’s medium- to long-term prospects are promising given its large natural resources. In the near term, however, the country continues to face balance-of-payments (BOP) pressures on account of low foreign direct investment and weak commodity prices, as well as expansionary macro policies. Imports have now started to taper off and, with the first phase of the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine now in operation, exports have picked up. The trade balance has thus improved, but the overall BOP remains weak. The executive directors have supported ongoing efforts to foster high, inclusive growth by improving the investment climate, enhancing competitiveness, and promoting economic diversification.
April 28, 2015
Zimbabwe: First Review of the Staff-Monitored Program; Staff Report; and Press Release
Description: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context. The Zimbabwean authorities have made progress in implementing their macroeconomic and structural reform programs, despite the economic and financial difficulties. During 2015, the authorities’ policy reform agenda will continue to focus on: (a) reducing the primary fiscal deficit to raise Zimbabwe’s capacity to repay; (b) restoring confidence in the financial system; (c) improving the business climate; and (d) garnering support for an arrears clearance strategy. Recent developments, outlook, and risks. Zimbabwe’s economic prospects remain difficult. Growth has slowed and is expected to weaken further in 2015. Despite the favorable impact of lower oil prices, the external position remains precarious and the country is in debt distress. Key risks to the outlook stem largely from a further decline in global commodity prices, fiscal challenges, and possible difficulties in policy implementation. However, the authorities are committed to intensifying their efforts to ensure successful implementation of the program and to lay the ground for stronger, more inclusive, and lasting economic growth. Program performance. All quantitative targets and structural benchmarks for the first review under the staff-monitored program (SMP) were met. The authorities demonstrated strong commitment to the program, in a difficult economic and financial environment. Moreover, they have made meaningful progress in implementing other key structural reforms, such as making operational an asset management company and amending the indigenization and empowerment law. Reengagement with creditors. The authorities have stepped up their reengagement with creditors, including by increasing payments to the World Bank (WB) and the African Development Bank (AfDB), a key step in their roadmap toward seeking rescheduling of bilateral official debt under the umbrella of the Paris Club. These developments constitute important steps toward reengaging with the international financial institutions (IFIs). They plan to step up their efforts to build consensus among creditors and development partners on ways to address the external arrears.